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(Almost) Everybody Got Slapped In Q1


  • For most asset-classes and investors, the first quarter of 2022 didn't provide much of a reason to dance. For us, however, it was quite different.
  • Many investors/experts point out that both recession and market peak occur (if at all) within 16-20 months from inversion. We, however, believe this time is different.
  • Should we trade based on (actual/current) tightening fear or (theoretical/future) QE hope? As far as we concern, it's never any different that this:
  • Trade as if you're walking on thin ice (be minded of risks) and you're more likely to end with a dance (be rewarded with returns). This part never-ever loses its validity.
  • Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Macro Trading Factory get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More »
Sibling Cub Smack To The Head

Dacia Doroff/iStock via Getty Images

This article is based on a far longer piece that was published yesterday to subscribers of both Wheel of Fortune ("WoF") and Macro Trading Factory ("MTF").

We named the original piece "Some Dance To Remember, Some Dance To Forget," using one of the

Macro Trading Factory is a macro-driven service, led by The Macro Teller and RoseNose.

The service offers two portfolios: “Funds Macro Portfolio” and “Rose's Income Garden”; both aim to outperform the SPY on a risk-adjusted basis, in a relaxed manner.

Suitable for those who either have little time/knowledge/desire to manage a portfolio on their own, and/or wish to get exposed to the market in a simple, though more risk-oriented (less volatile), way.

Each of our portfolios, spanning across all sectors, offers you a hassle-free, easy to understand and execute, solution.

Macro Trading Factory for an Upward Trajectory!

This article was written by

The Macro Teller profile picture

The Macro Teller has over 30 years of investing experience, including 25 as an investment manager. He holds a BA in Accounting and Economics, as well as an MBA in Finance. He is a licensed CPA and had been a licensed investment advisor in various countries, including the US (Series 7 & 66).

He runs the investing group Macro Trading Factory along with his team where they offer two easy to follow portfolios: Funds Macro Portfolio and Rose's Income Garden. Although the two portfolios are very different they share the same goal: Outperforming the market SPY on a risk-adjusted basis. Learn more.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of OUR "FMP" AND "RIG" PORTFOLIOS either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

TipRanks: SELL ratings: EZU, IEV, IEUR, VGK HOLD ratings: IEF, IEI, TLH, TLT BUY ratings: PDBC, DBA, DBB, DBC, DBP, GSG

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Comments (18)

Really classy hoping for more wars where thousands have died and millions of lives have been destroyed - all in hopes of your account going up.
The Macro Teller profile picture
"Hoping for more wars"!?
I do hope (this time for real) you realize the statement you probably refer to ("If this is how stocks react to wars, should investors aspire for more of these?") is pure sarcasm, right?
The Macro Teller profile picture
As of NOW:

Funds Macro Portfolio ("FMP") is up 13.6% YTD, outperforming $SPY by 20.7%

Rose's Income Garden ("RIG") is up 8.2% YTD, outperforming $SPY by 15.0%

Only $499/year

Our IRAs were up 4.2% and our Canadian stocks up 23.5% in Q1. Just ordinary value stocks and mucho O&G. Collecting and reinvesting solid dividends vs gambling in the tech sector. Long many SWAN stocks.
RoseNose profile picture
@SmokeyJoe50 : Thank you for sharing and congrats with the SUPER fantastic returns ... Value investing works :)) Rose
Is there a way to subscribe to the Macro Teller on my IPad? Kept getting message supported on desktop only.
TRigell profile picture
@jillehood I only use my iPad and have no problem with my subscription to the Macro Teller. Try again. Good luck!
The Macro Teller profile picture
I'm not sure myself.
Let me find out
SA Admin Jonathan Liss profile picture
@The Macro Teller @jillehood for now this service is not yet available in the app store (though it will hopefully be soon). In the meantime, go to this link from a browser on your iPad: seekingalpha.com/...
Once you subscribe via your browser all aspects of the service are accessible within the SA App as well
JackWolf profile picture
Guarantees don't exist in life, except death. (Taxes aren't included cause we're all billionaires here, right?) However, you can now count climate change and its impacts in that guarantee.
Whew what a nasty quarter, wish I could skip it [Purple Kiss "Skip Skip" dance practice].. Could have been worse though, if the market had closed Q1 on 3/14/22, VERY nice bounce since then, bear market rally or not. As you said, nice performance for gold miners and SIVR [which is now bearish though MACD wise], but unfortunately I was overweight tech and kept buying the dip, buying the dip, buying the dip. Learning to respect the technicals over what I think, that nothing is sacred. Making a resolution to NEVER turn a big profit into a loss again, always can buy back when the trend is your friend again, and buyback in a position of strength instead of losing fingers trying to catch falling knives. Trying to cut back on my number of positions, especially trimming underwater stuff on any rip, adding to successful stuff on the dip, so there are not so many things to keep track of, making it more likely to make a mistake, to KISS [keep it simple stupid].
RoseNose profile picture
Terrific results for your Macro Thinking you put in place last year. Glad to be on board and experience your so extremely insightful success. Here's to a upside green $ April just like most! Enjoy the holidays :)) Rose
The Macro Teller profile picture
"Rose's Income Garden" is adding such a great scent to our "Macro Trading Factory".
Thank you for making me better!
like the reference to Hotel California, one of my favorite songs :-)
The Macro Teller profile picture
Thanks @mliu76400
Truth is we had to make two changes to this article:
1) Leading image: It was Will Smith & Chris Rock, but SA had a previous bad experience with it and asked us to change it.
2) "Hotel California" YouTube at the end, but SA policy has apparently changed last week and no more YouTube videos are allowed.

I guess you'd like the original title ("Some Dance To Remember, Some Dance To Forget") better... (-;
@The Macro Teller That's too bad.

Timely article. Best to plan for the worst and expect the best.
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