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Tracking natural gas injections

Jun. 01, 2005 1:50 PM ET

Tomorrow at 2:00 pm EST the EIA will post their weekly natural gas storage report. We continue to be in the shoulder season and demand based on summer temperatures does not reveal itself for another month.

One can track the estimate for tomorrow's number a couple ways.

  • Bloomberg aggregates the estimates of around 20 firms.
  • ICAP an interdealer broker has actually created a couple of derivative instruments which are pegged off the storage number released. The day before the storage number is announced, usually between 3:00 pm and 4:00 pm EST ICAP holds an auction where qualifying investors can "bet" what the number will be the following day. While most of us are not able to partake in the auction, we can follow it, and get a sense of what the market is thinking.
  • Another source is the enigmatic Robry825 whose postings on the CWEI message board are legendary. He posts a number of data points as to where he derives his estimates.

For the record, the ICAP # looks like an injection of 90 bcf and Robry has an estimated injection of 94 bcf.

If you would like to learn more about Robry please continue reading.

Robry825 posts multiple times in a row and he has a plethora of data. I have converted that data into charts in an effort to simplify his predictions.

The following is the US Gas Flow Model where one can see the daily injections/withdrawls:


I am not a huge fan of his climate models because I find the data too broad for natural gas. Due to infrastructure and population 52% of the Natural Gas consumed in the United States is concentrated in seven states. A prudent follower would do better in following the weather effects in these states:



This article was written by

Michael McAllister is a contributor for Seeking Alpha.

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