Symmetry Invest A/S - HelloFresh: A Structural Grower

Apr. 13, 2022 3:02 AM ETHelloFresh SE (HELFY)1 Like

Summary

  • Hellofresh have managed to grow revenue 20x in just 6 years.
  • Hellofresh managed to open up in new markets and constantly take market share from competitors in existing markets.
  • We think Hellofresh is trading at cheap multiples.

HelloFresh delivery van.

Jarretera/iStock Editorial via Getty Images

The following segment was excerpted from this fund letter.

HelloFresh (OTCMKTS:HELFY)

Investment case: HelloFresh

Hellofresh have managed to grow revenue 20x (from 0,3 to 6,0 billion EUR) in just 6 years. They have achieved this while going from cash burning to profitable and is now doing share buybacks. Even though the business got a Covid boost it was a structural grower before Covid.

HF customers

Hellofresh manage to open up in new markets and constantly take market share from competitors in existing markets. Even if meal kits will only growth 5-15% per year from here we see big upside in “ready-to-heat” meals, breakfast, supplemented groceries from Hellofresh market etc. This will improve AOV and basket size and thereby improve unit economics and margins.

Net revenue

Because Hellofresh is a subscription-based E-commerce business (like Naked Wines) it falls in between chairs. Analysts that cover subscription businesses think retention is too low and analysts who cover eCommerce don’t understand the subscription part.

In our world we can see the irony that people doubt the unit economics of a fast-growing company that is cash flow positive and doing buybacks while having no problem doubting them in heavily loss making SaaS-companies.

We think Hellofresh is a category leader with a great business model and management team that is trading at cheap multiples.

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

This article was written by

Single stock ideas excerpted from fund letters published by Seeking Alpha.
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Additional disclosure: Disclaimer

This report is written by Symmetry Invest A/S. The report is based on research, financial statements, interviews, field research, analyst reports, etc. The report includes the opinions of Symmetry Invest A/S.

These are our own opinions. Symmetry does not assure any correctness written in this report as there could be material miscalculations, mistyping, etc. The research is often done on a 6-18-month basis before publishing. This report should in no way be seen as a buy, hold, or sell recommendation of the company. Symmetry In- vest A/S is an authorized alternative investment firm (FAIF) by Danish regulatory authorities. We are not authorized as an investment advisor and as such this research should in no way be interpreted as investment advice but as journalistic research and our own reasoning for owning the stock.

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In some cases, Symmetry will issue a follow-up report on material new information about the company. But are in no way obligated to so. Investment in stocks includes the risk of loss of capital and we always recommend others to consult with an authorized investment advisor before doing investments.

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