Macro Update: This Is A Correction And Not A Sustained Bear Market

ESI Analytics Limited profile picture
ESI Analytics Limited


  • Historically reliable macro indicators signal growth for the U.S. economy.
  • Our leading indicators weakened slightly during the past month but do not signal an imminent recession yet.
  • Sustained bear markets in equities unfolded in recessions only.
  • The S&P 500 remains on target for 5000-5200.
Gelbe Kanarienvogel

cdeniz/iStock via Getty Images

Back in the day, coal miners took canaries into coal mines. The birds were an early warning of an invisible and lethal danger because canaries are more sensitive to dangerous gases than humans are. Consequently, the coal miners knew it was time to leave

This article was written by

ESI Analytics Limited profile picture
ESI Analytics is an independent investment research firm with a focus on evidence-based investing.We have a best-in-class track record in originating actionable investment ideas. Those can be implemented standalone or together as a tactical asset allocation.ESI Analytic’s core product is a portable overlay. It is delivered as a derivatives-based model portfolio to institutional clients. Seamless integration to their existing portfolio structure improves their risk-reward in a Markowitz efficient frontier context. Individual clients can access an ETF model portfolio that replicates the institutional overlay extensively. Therefore, sophisticated individual DIY investors can benefit from an all-weather model portfolio designed to function in all market conditions. The decision-making process behind all ideas is multidisciplinary. It combines macroeconomic research expertise with behavioral finance and technical analysis. Our research and model portfolios can be accessed on  Robert Lefter founded ESI Analytics. He has more than 20 years of professional investment experience and is the CIO of ESI Capital, a registered investment adviser.

Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of GLOBAL EQUITY INDICES either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: ESI Analytics Ltd. is affiliated with ESI Capital Management, Inc., a registered investment adviser. The information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Our clients and/or clients of our affiliates may hold positions in the ETFs, mutual funds, and/or any investment asset mentioned above. The commentary does not constitute individualized investment advice. The opinions offered herein are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities. Investments involve risk and you should not rely on this information as the primary basis of your investment, financial, or tax planning decisions. You should consult your financial adviser, and/or tax professional regarding your specific situation. Past performance is not a guarantee of future return, nor is it necessarily indicative of future performance.

Recommended For You

Comments (42)

To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.
Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.
If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.