Wage-Price Spiral Ahead? Not Really
Summary
- We don’t see a wage-price spiral. Companies are actually paying less in labor per unit of output, we find. We think wages can rise more without adding to inflation.
- The S&P 500 plunged to new 2022 lows last week. We remain overweight equities in the inflationary backdrop but acknowledge mounting challenges.
- The Fed is set to raise its policy rate by 0.5% this week in an attempt to rein in inflation. We think the eventual sum total of rates hikes will be historically low.
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Transcript
U.S. private sector wages jumped 5% last year. That’s the fastest wage growth since the 1980s.
Some, including Fed Chair Powell, say this is evidence of an overheating labor market - which could cause further consumer price spikes.
We take a different view.
1: Higher wages ≠ higher prices
Higher wages don’t always mean higher prices.
What’s important for companies is how much they pay workers to produce one unit of output - such as a bike or a pair of jeans - compared with what it sells it for. When you take inflation into account, that amount has actually fallen by about 3.5% since the pandemic.
Why? First, prices have risen even faster. And second, because U.S. workers are more productive now than before Covid.
2: Wages can increase more
We think that means wages are actually still playing catch-up with those productivity and price gains - and have more room to run.
3: What about the unemployment rate?
Unemployment is also at a post-pandemic low, with a record high ratio of job vacancies to unemployed. This reflects a shortage of workers.
Many people decided to leave the workforce during the pandemic - for health, childcare or other reasons. This has also made unemployed people less likely to take a job.
More people are also changing jobs to improve their pay. So, a large share of vacancies represent churn rather than new jobs. Higher real wages would help reverse that. It would put more people in jobs, without causing overheating.
We believe the labor market is still healing from the pandemic. The labor shortage adds evidence that we are in a world shaped by supply. We expect the Fed to raise rates to neutral levels, but going beyond this could hurt growth and jobs.
And that reinforces our preference for equities over bonds.
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U.S. wages are growing at the fastest clip since the 1980s. Is this the start of a “wage-price spiral” – a vicious cycle of companies funding higher pay by raising prices, causing employees to ask for even higher wages? We don’t think so. In reality, we find companies are paying less in labor costs per unit of output than before the pandemic, thanks to higher productivity and prices. We believe wages can rise further without adding to inflation - and help normalize the labor market.
Real wages have room to rise
U.S. labor costs, 2019-2021 (BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Haver Analytics)
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and not subject to fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Notes: The chart shows the level of U.S. private wages and salaries (in pink) from the U.S. employment cost index measure of hourly labor costs. The yellow line shows this measure of wages adjusted for productivity, by dividing by the level of output per hour. The red line shows this productivity-adjusted series adjusted for inflation by dividing by the U.S. personal consumption expenditure headline price index.
Wages measured by the Employment Cost Index jumped 5% last year - the fastest pace since the 1980s (pink line in the chart). Some argue this is evidence of an overheating job market and a precursor to spikes in consumer prices. But higher wages don’t necessarily mean higher inflation. What matters for companies is the real unit labor cost: how much a company pays workers to produce a unit of output relative to that unit’s selling price. U.S. workers are 4.5% more productive than before the pandemic, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Wages have actually fallen since then (the red line), after adjusting for those productivity gains (the yellow line) and higher prices. Our conclusion: Wages have room to rise as they catch up with productivity and price gains, rather than drive more inflation pressure.
Not overheating
How about other ostensible signs of an overheating labor market? The U.S. unemployment rate is at a pre-pandemic low. The ratio of vacancies to unemployed is at the highest level on record. We believe this is caused by a labor market still healing from the pandemic, rather than excessive demand for labor. People are quitting at record rates to improve their compensation (the “Great Renegotiation”), and the unemployed are reluctant to fill job openings. This means ballooning vacancies are a sign of people switching jobs, rather than new jobs being created. At the same time, many have left the workforce for health, lifestyle or other reasons (the “Great Resignation”). Labor force participation - the share of the working-age population with a job or actively looking for work - is 1 percentage point below its pre-pandemic level. This is very much a U.S. problem. In Europe, the quit rate is lower, and furlough programs helped participation recover quickly.
How to solve for the reduced labor supply in the U.S.? Further wage growth could entice the unemployed to fill job openings and entice employees to stay in their current jobs, rather than quit in search of better pay. Vacancies could come down and employment could rise by 1.5 million, or 1% of the U.S. workforce, we estimate. And unemployment may not fall much further if higher wages induce those who left the workforce during the pandemic to return.
The labor market dynamics reinforce our belief that we are in a world shaped by supply, not excess demand. We see inflation cooling from 40-year highs as the economy heals. But we’re are not going back to the “lowflation” years before the pandemic, we believe, amid ongoing supply constraints. As a result, we expect the Fed to ultimately raise rates to a neutral level that neither stimulates nor decreases economic activity. Raising rates beyond neutral to try to squeeze out inflation even further would come at too high a cost to growth and employment, in our view. The result: we see the sum total of rate hikes at a historically low level given inflation. This reinforces our underweight to government bonds and overweight to equities. We favor developed market equities over emerging market stocks, with a preference for the U.S. and Japan over Europe. The reason: we see the energy shock emanating from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine hitting Europe hard.
Bottom line
We do not see a wage-price spiral building. Private sector wages in the U.S. have increased, but what matters for companies is that real unit labor cost have actually fallen, thanks in part to productivity gains. This means there’s still room for wages to grow. Higher wages could help the U.S. labor market recover from pandemic-related worker shortages by encouraging people to return to the workforce or stay put in their jobs, rather than shopping around for more compensation.
Market backdrop
The S&P 500 plunged to new 2022 lows last week to clock its worst month since the pandemic’s sell-off in March 2020. We believe stocks can do well in the inflationary backdrop - but acknowledge other mounting challenges such as the energy shock and China’s growth slowdown. The U.S. economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter, but consumer and business spending showed strength. We believe the economic restart is still in full swing.
The Fed is likely to raise its policy rate by 0.5% this week to 0.75-1%, while the Bank of England is poised to hike another 0.25%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell may reiterate his tough talk talk on reining in inflation. We think the Fed will quickly lift policy rates through 2022, but ultimately will re-assess before going beyond neutral levels that destroy growth and jobs.
This post originally appeared on the iShares Market Insights.
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