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Why Coinbase Could Double Thanks To NFTs Alone

May 02, 2022 8:37 PM ETCoinbase Global, Inc. (COIN)55 Comments
Cryptonomics profile picture


  • Our Q4'21 forecast was different from the consensus, but proved to be accurate. Our Q1'22 forecast, while not as controversial, has an out of consensus element yet again.
  • New products (Coinbase Ventures, FairX, Coinbase One, Coinbase Cloud, and most importantly the newly launched NFT platform) are adding tremendous value that is yet to be priced in correctly.
  • Coinbase scored a big touchdown with its Super Bowl ad in Q1 and the marketing ROI; MAU implications for Q1'22 are positive.
  • Institutional money is finally ready to invest in crypto and Coinbase will benefit as the main go-to custodian and trading platform for institutions.
  • Now is a great time to buy Coinbase - the stock could double thanks to the NFT platform alone.

NFT Futuristic Background

da-kuk/E+ via Getty Images

Coinbase Global, Inc. (NASDAQ:COIN) is a very profitable business with many growth catalysts. The cryptoeconomy Coinbase has helped build is antifragile by design; it is here to stay, and it will grow substantially in the future. Coinbase is likely to be a major

This article was written by

Cryptonomics profile picture
An Economist and a former macroeconomic research provider to the biggest hedge funds and investment firms. With 20 years of equity investing experience. Cryptonomics switched his focus to cryptocurrencies in 2016.There are concepts of Skin in the game as well as, Soul in the game. I have 85% of my net worth in Crypto, which one can argue is big vote of confidence as far as skin in the game goes. There is a second concept about “soul in the game.” I am not in this purely for the wealth gains. The soul part for me comes from having experienced War, Hyperinflation, having to flee a country in a civil war, having all my family's wealth confiscated on the way out. Having experienced the slew of misfortune I deeply feel for 80 million humans displaced by conflict and war at present. I know they all could use a system to keep their wealth and take it with them wherever they go, which is why I am so passionate about cryptocurrencies and related technologies and companies .

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of COIN, ETH-USD either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Comments (55)

Cryptonomics profile picture
Coinbase NFT is now open to the general public! nft.coinbase.com
get yourself a cool username.

Coinbase reports tomorrow 5/10. Q2 guidance will likely be soft,
might end up in the area of 1.2B revenue for Q2, if current monthly trend continues.
This is similar to Q3 -2021 numbers. Despite Q2 guidance likely being one of the softer recent quarters in terms of revenue, it will be greater than full year 2020 rev, something to keep in perspective. (if rest of May and June look like April)
Keep an eye out for sentiment reversal catalysts mentioned in the article, especially ETH 2 merge
Boris J profile picture
For the win!
BLIN8089 profile picture
this article really doesn’t age well. COIN collages in short 8 days. Probably Only Jim Cramer’s recommendation about Bear could top it.

I thought I was stealing shares at $75-$80 yesterday, was down a full 30% by the next day. 0/10 do not recommend
Chris Lau profile picture
Per techCrunch on launch, Coinbase NFT volume has reached sales worth $668,668 across a small pool of 1,287 users. Ouch.

Coinbase’s exchange has 24-hour volume of $3.2 billion and almost 2.5 million.

Dorsey's NFT value falling by 99.9% was the red flag.

COIN is approaching a buy. Wait for the bottom, easy to spot.
@Chris Lau
What are the levels you are watching for?
@Chris Lau Nor surprised one bit. NFTs are a scam plain and simple. It goes close to zero unless the tech becomes actually useful. For now, Opensea had a huge head start. No way Coinbase eats into that share. FTX and Binance tried and failed.
Chris Lau profile picture
@Faninvestor9 Update: FTX bought for a buck then sold NFTs for $10 million to get money out post-bankruptcy. Coinbase had several false rallies and fell by another -8% yesterday.
Any reason share count tripped over quarter? Did they issue SBC which is 2 times the market cap?
@ritholtz47 coin is a share issuing machine. Poor investors have no clue about the dilutive effect of SBE on share price.
Thanks for the information. Results look terrible. I guess I just cut my lost and move to proven stocks. AMD and AVGO sort of stocks did better for me.
@ritholtz47 It may bounce. I don't hold a position long or short. Sell covered calls?
150 users day 1 - game changer
Hanging in there. COIN is only down 55% YTD. Reasonable.
Cryptonomics profile picture
@DavidHHolmes not the only tech company in the storm, but this boat is well built on profit unlike many others. my conviction is solid. Deep understanding of crypto industry and the value COIN brings, as well as a solid revenue forecasting model that is better than most of the analysts covering the company
@Cryptonomics OK makes sense. The market will definitely overshoot on the downside.
Cryptonomics profile picture
Coinbase NFT is now open to the general public!
Coinbase (COIN) could be the next Netflix or Amazon! Would it not be accurate to compare getting into this stock at the current pricing and infancy today, to getting into any of the above, at their ground floors?
Economist 101 profile picture
Why does Coinbase have an F rating with BBB?? Enron 2.0??

Cryptonomics profile picture
@lester11 probably because people are getting scammed by criminals and blaming Coinbase.
As a pro level user of almost every centralized and decentralized exchange, I can tell you Coinbase is the best, and most trusted, IMO, but, don't take my word, go use them all and then report back. cheers
Economist 101 profile picture
@Cryptonomics what a joke of a post. They are the ones scamming customers. It's their offshore tech support in India that's doing it most likely. Shame on you for defending their shady business practices!
I bought in November at $261. So if it doubles from here…. I’m back to even baby!
Economist 101 profile picture
@rod handler you are a greedy bag hodler! 🤣
Jamjack profile picture
"Rat poison" and "evil" according to Munger. Long COIN.
Very nice summary. I agree with your thesis and also see big potential with all the upcoming streams. But you pointed also one thing which scary me a lot. And that is share dilution. Even if coinbase will manage that probable decline in income from retail investors fees and increase revenues from other streams and will be able to grow 10-40% per year.

There was last year dilution 100% and if that continues in similar pace. Then where would be value for shareholders.
Cristi_an profile picture
actually it could be halved exactly because of the NFTs
Did you factor in mark-to-market for all the private equity Coinbase Ventures has on their books? They dumped a ton of money into startups with sky high valuations! What about all the various coins on their balance sheet too?
NFT is like selling purified air to fill up in car tire. Very good business model for naives 👍
@KeepEmotionsOut Did you equate the value of the internet in the 90s to purified air too? Or were you able to differentiate scams from the technology itself back then?
@Ewent124 tell me million dollar NFT junk getting sold for few hundred dollar on resale is NOT a scam.
@Ewent124 I said in 1995 that 90% of the Internet would be used for porn.

I think I underestimated that figure…

But I don’t look at it.
Well done. Very forwarding complete analysis. In the meanwhile sell out of the money covered calls to lower your cost.
Cryptonomics profile picture
@kkmm12 good idea for long term holders
Everything you said is spot on. Wall Street and media will manipulate the **** out of the next 2x earnings where Coinbase could show negative earnings becuase of lower trading volume and high expenses for expansion. I could see this going under $100 if the market capitulates. But long term, this is where you want your money for cryptocurrency.
@Tdog88 holding a BIG position at $218
r Negoro profile picture
@Tdog88 not exactly wall street manipulation, but coinbase guided for more investments.
@Lord Gekko $261 in November. I thought it looked good falling 25% from its highs.
I agree with your analysis !. It is a very good buy at $80..I am waiting to load up.hahaha
Beartooth profile picture
@Radius123 You'll be waiting a loooong time! LOL
@Beartooth April 1st was $200.
@Radius123 Getting there fast. You'll be the smart one in the end.
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