S&P 500: The Bear Market Phase 1 Completed - Here's What Comes Next

May 03, 2022 8:00 AM ETSPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY)XLC, XLK140 Comments
Damir Tokic profile picture
Damir Tokic
4.43K Followers

Summary

  • The Phase 1 of the bear market is likely completed.
  • The expectations of monetary tightening are possibly priced in.
  • Whether the bear market continues depends on whether the recession follows.
Federal funds rate decrease. Arrow with cut of federal fund rate and stamp of federal reserve FRS symbol.

Bet_Noire/iStock via Getty Images

I have been publicly bearish on S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) since March 25th, and since then SPY is down about 9-10%. The bearish thesis is fairly simple - the Fed's aggressive monetary policy is likely to cause a recession, and consequently a bear

This article was written by

Damir Tokic profile picture
4.43K Followers
Global-macro research. Proprietary trader. Holding a valid Series 3 license as a Commodity Trading Adviser, member of National Futures Association. Professor of Finance. Editor-in-Chief Journal of Corporate Accounting and Finance.

Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in SPY over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Recommended For You

Comments (140)

To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.
Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.
If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.