S&P 500: The Bear Market Phase 1 Completed - Here's What Comes Next

May 03, 2022 8:00 AM ETSPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY)XLC, XLK140 Comments
Damir Tokic profile picture
Damir Tokic


  • The Phase 1 of the bear market is likely completed.
  • The expectations of monetary tightening are possibly priced in.
  • Whether the bear market continues depends on whether the recession follows.
Federal funds rate decrease. Arrow with cut of federal fund rate and stamp of federal reserve FRS symbol.

Bet_Noire/iStock via Getty Images

I have been publicly bearish on S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) since March 25th, and since then SPY is down about 9-10%. The bearish thesis is fairly simple - the Fed's aggressive monetary policy is likely to cause a recession, and consequently a bear

This article was written by

Damir Tokic profile picture
Global-macro research. Proprietary trader. Holding a valid Series 3 license as a Commodity Trading Adviser, member of National Futures Association. Professor of Finance. Editor-in-Chief Journal of Corporate Accounting and Finance.

Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in SPY over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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