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Ford: Enough Is Enough

May 03, 2022 12:22 PM ETFord Motor Company (F)113 Comments
The Asian Investor profile picture
The Asian Investor


  • Ford’s Q1’22 earnings were impacted by a mark-to-market loss on the firm’s Rivian investment.
  • Ford reaffirmed guidance for FY 2022 despite supply chain risks.
  • Ford’s 45% drop from its high is exaggerated.

Ford December Sales Plunge 17 Percent From A Year Ago

Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News

Supply chain problems have made investments in traditional and electric car brands unpopular recently, but dismissing Ford (NYSE:F) at this point of its electric vehicle transformation would be a big mistake. The car company is ramping

This article was written by

The Asian Investor profile picture
I look for high-risk, high-reward situations. Five largest portfolio holdings: Bitcoin, SoFi, Alibaba, PayPal, Western Alliance. Early buyer of cryptocurrencies. I live in Thailand :)

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Comments (113)

People talk about higher interest rates I would say Fords lending for new vechicles would get a boost from higher rates
Westfool profile picture

Nah, one of the only fully financed companies. Wait who needed money last time, who was forced too to not make the other cronies be so exposed to fools.

I love the symbol.... I don't Escape, own one, but say F y'all chumps and crooks (generally).

I would say my money never leave but I had a few more bucks... well it doesn't matter, I love Cali.... not cuz I love them.... but I love F and time will tell.
HWONG2 profile picture
It’s too late for Ford to catch up with Tesla. Ford may go bankruptcy before 2030.
If RIVN was 180 per share Ford would be trading in the 30's..simple...
Chris Lau profile picture
@FunInvesting Ford and another unnamed investor reportedly plan to dump up to 23M Rivian shares. $F Q4/21 to Q1/22 loss is $(1,752,600,000).
JunkBondage profile picture
@Chris Lau They should get the cash while they can, regardless of the loss. They have their own EV truck now. I don't understand why they tied up with RIVN in the first place.
Westfool profile picture

Smart old money move in a sense. Heck, why do you think the Chinese ever messed with the real Americans.
For the life of me I can’t understand why they haven’t unloaded their RIVN stake at the ridiculous valuations which were available to them. Dumb.

Cool. It’s an electric truck. Don’t you build those too?
Naples Investor profile picture
@deckofcards I think there was a lock-up period after the IPO.
emcsqard profile picture
@Jeff Durbin

May 9:
"There is also Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) with nearly 800M shares being freed up to be sold investors if they desire. Notably, that tally includes 100M shares of Rivian held by Ford (F) and 160M shares by Amazon (AMZN)."
Westfool profile picture
@Naples Investor

Naples, I hope u talkin Italy and not FL.

Your comment is exactly what I heard.
You know it really has not been all that long that F was a $5 stock. The movement from that point to $15 is more newsworthy than the retreat from $25. And that movement was mostly based on the positive hype around the electric Mustangs...and now Lightning. And, yes, Tesla is way over priced, has been for a long time. The real question is whether F can make money on its major brands and pay a dividend worthy of a century old company that claims to know what it is doing.
RickJensen profile picture
You will get your answer in less than a year.
Westfool profile picture

Tesla is not a pure Auto company though..... well I thought.
JunkBondage profile picture
I agree though it would have been nice if you showed a comp chart with trading multiples compared with some other major auto producers to get a sense of relative valuation on a number of metrics. You only provide FCF multiple of Ford, and not of any other automakers.
Production PROMISES are easy, plentiful and CHEAP !
Let's see how much they actually can PRODUCE.
This year will tell and I predict the RESULTS will fall short !
Westfool profile picture

Yeah I hate to underestimate demand. Although I don't need to lie, they really couldn't source enough materials IMHO.
Dalit profile picture
The risk I don't see addressed here is that rising interest rates will price people out of cars the same way it can price people out of homes. I rationalize that one by noting the high demand for Ford's products - they'll sell everything they build regardless.

At least I think so. Definitely willing to look at the other side of that idea.
@Joe Union It will be interesting to see how sales of the E vehicles is affected by rising interest rates. You can get an E Mustang as your second car if the monthly payments are affordable. Relying on a electric vehicle as your sole source of transport seems really risky to me except for specific major Metros or for people who can charge at home and never need to drive outside the charging limit.
Naples Investor profile picture
@Joe Union Ford can subsidize the interest rate so it looks like sales prices are still high even though the buyer is getting the sales discount through the interest rate subsidy.
i would buy at 11 due to consumer spending tightening. Ford makes a good product so that isnt the problem
@Dmaddron lol....at no point has ford ever made a good product. Lol....sorry.
jst profile picture
@The Exception In denial and blinded by bias...
Westfool profile picture
@The Exception

The 2017 Escape Titanium SE was an amazing car especially for what it cost.... probably the best value and greeeeat car I've ever purchased over the last couple decades.
Typical ford for years! No positions here, long GM.
Legacy Legends, LLC profile picture
"Ford made a loss of $3.1B in Q1'22, chiefly because of an unrealized loss related to one of its electric vehicle investments"

Believe in yourself, invest in yourself, RIVN can't save you. This is why EV investors should have 80% TSLA and 20% speculation EV.
2959 profile picture
So they divide up the operations, creating three separate business groups and good luck figuring out the leadership roles. Then, based on the hype, interviews and selling to the media, who wants to work in the Ford Blue division (ice). Farley will be President of Ford e in addition to CEO, so new hires (or existing) will not want to work at Blue which equals bad attitudes. Ultimately, the family maintains control (40% class B) with a dual-share structure. It's also hard to get excited about someone playing "catch-up". Still long/hold but only because I'm in at 6-9$.
sixpackistan profile picture
F is an appropriate ticker symbol for this garbage company. If it wasn't for the F-X50 line of trucks they'd have NOTHING.
Doctorpm profile picture
Ford is lost! I just tried to buy an $80,000 F250 for towing. Not a truck on the lot and all orders for 2022 have been canceled! Nationwide search for the same vehicle shows nothing available. Ford's chip supply chain has CRASHED! Plants have shut down. If you own F now you might want to get out while you can....
TheBaron Investing profile picture
@Doctorpm I thought they were shipping the chips they have to their electric vehicle line up?
emcsqard profile picture
I surmise that most are purchases deferred, not lost. That they can sell everything they have, and are backlogged is a much better (enviable) problem than having a lot full of vehicles that are not moving.
“the firm's huge potential to become a leading EV company”

When will Ford start disclosing gross margins for its EVs? Until then, Ford is mystery meat.
RickJensen profile picture
Try never. If they tell you, they tell the competition.
You don't give up the 11 herbs and spices.
Mellowphant profile picture
@RickJensen That's an apples to tires comparison.
@RickJensen AMD really messed up last night. They publicly disclosed their gross margins. Now Intel has their herbs and spices.
Nobody NEEDS a pickup because almost every American HAS one already!
@New Adams That hasn't stopped Americans for the past 30 years upgrading their trucks like clockwork.
ToMillions profile picture
Reminds me of (fuboTV: Enough Is Enough)
JRHighley profile picture
Supply chains are going to get worse before they get better.
The Asian Investor profile picture
@JRHighley Probably, time to get some cash ready...
@The Asian Investor Is that before the recession or after?
I got back in F a few days ago. I was reading a story on ford to her and she said to use her cash in her account to buy Ford shares. I think now is the time.
@underdog6713 Too soon as a recession is around the corner.
Ishi Kenjo profile picture
I just don't trust Ford to seamlessly transition to ev's or even efficiently transition to new supply chains. Prove me wrong & I'll adjust. I'd rather miss some of the profit in their turnaround then assume it & be wrong.
The Asian Investor profile picture
@Ishi Kenjo What do you mean with you don't trust Ford to seamlessly transition?
Actionable Conclusion profile picture
@The Asian Investor

Perhaps he figures since no OEM has been able to transition with even a modicum of acumen... why assume Ford is nailing it now?

Every OEM except perhaps Hyundai/Kia... they are all floundering in EV production, whether out of Germany, Japan or Detroit.

Ford is def floundering in EV production... the greatly hyped Mach E is a prime example.

Farley can't cut the ICE umbilical cord.
The Asian Investor profile picture
@Actionable Conclusion ICEs are going to stay, nobody says they are going away right away...
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