REITs Are Suddenly Cheap

May 10, 2022 11:00 AM ETBX, ACC, PSB, APTS, BRG, HR, HTA, SPG, SKT, MAC, PEI, KRG, REG, KIM, NNN, STOR, GTY, O, PLD, FR, DRE, ILPT, DLR, EQIX, IRM, AMT, CCI, UNIT, CPT, MAA, NXRT, AIRC, ESS, EQR, AVB, INVH, AMH, EXR, CUBE, PSA, SUI, ELS, SBRA, OHI, VTR, WELL, HIW, PDM, KRC, SLG, ESRT, PGRE, DRH, HST, APLE, VICI, MGP, MGM, NRZ, IVR, NLY, AGNC, BXMT, STWD, ABR, VNQ, RQI, RNP, IYR, XLRE, RFI, KBWY, SCHH, NRO, FREL, SRVR, JRS, DRN, USRT, ICF, RWR, DRV, URE, SRS, SEVN, FRI, REK, PSR, BBRE, PPTY, VRAI, IARAX44 Comments55 Likes

Summary

  • Nearly 200 REITs have reported earnings results over the past three weeks, providing critical information on the state of the real estate industry amid the extreme volatility in early 2022.
  • Results were generally better-than-expected with roughly 85% of equity REITs beating consensus FFO estimates while nearly 70% of the REITs that provide forward guidance raised their full-year outlook.
  • Despite the strong slate of earnings reports across most property sectors, however, performance trends continue to be dominated by macroeconomic factors and the broader sell-off across essentially all asset classes.
  • Consistent with a theme of recent quarters, reports from residential and shopping center REITs were most impressive, followed closely behind by industrial and storage REITs. Mortgage REITs have also been a bright spot amid the carnage over the past several weeks.
  • The steep sell-off combined with upward earnings revisions and dividend hikes has pulled valuations to the "cheapest" level since 2020 and swelled the average dividend yield to the highest since 2018.
  • This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Hoya Capital Income Builder. Learn More »

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This is an abridged version of the full report published on Hoya Capital Income Builder Marketplace on May 9th.

Real Estate Earnings Recap

REIT earnings recap

Hoya Capital

Nearly 200 REITs have reported earnings results over the past three weeks, providing critical information on the state of the real estate industry amid the extreme volatility over the past month. Results were generally better-than-expected with roughly 85% of equity REITs beating consensus FFO estimates while nearly 70% of REITs that provide full-year guidance raised their FFO target. Consistent with a theme of recent quarters, result from residential and shopping center REITs were most impressive, followed closely behind by industrial and storage REITs while mortgage REITs have also been a bright spot amid the carnage over the past several weeks.

REIT earnings scorecard 2022

Hoya Capital

As noted in our Halftime Report, M&A has been the major theme throughout REIT earnings season as Blackstone (BX) took its buying spree into another gear with two major REIT acquisitions - student housing REIT American Campus (ACC) and PS Business Parks (PSB). For Blackstone - which oversees a massive conglomerate of real estate investment vehicles including the largest non-traded REIT, the deals are the fourth and fifth since last June following acquisitions of Preferred Apartment (APTS), Bluerock Residential (BRG), and QTS Realty (QTS). There's been some M&A drama in the healthcare space as well as potential new bidders who emerged for medical office REIT Healthcare Realty (HR), which had agreed to merge with Healthcare Trust of America (HTA) back in March.

blackstone M&A

Hoya Capital

Despite the strong slate of earnings reports across most property sectors, performance trends continue to be dominated by macroeconomic factors and the broader sell-off across essentially all asset classes, which has pulled valuations back towards "cheap" levels. Just two REIT sectors - farmland and student housing - are in positive territory on the year while property sectors with some of the more impressive earnings results - residential, industrial, and technology - have continued to lag. A little more than four months into 2022, Equity REITs (VNQ) are lower by 17.7% while Mortgage REITs (REM) have slipped 14.8% - roughly even with the 17% decline on the S&P 500 (SPY).

REIT performance

Hoya Capital

Retail REIT Earnings Recap

Malls: (Final Grade: B) Mall REITs are one of the few property sectors still in 'stabilization' mode, but Q1 was another step forward in the long road to recovery. Simon Property (SPG) reported solid results this week, raising its full-year guidance by 60 basis points and hiking its dividend for the fourth time in the past year. For SPG, the full-year target would bring its FFO back to within 3% of pre-pandemic-levels - substantially ahead of its peers. Tanger Factory Outlet (SKT) has been the upside standout after lifting its full-year guidance and recording a 1.3% increase in blended rental rate on renewed leases, snapping a twelve-quarter streak of negative rent spreads dating back to Q1 of 2019. Results from Macerich (MAC) were a bit disappointing as leasing spreads took another leg lower in Q1 while its 230 basis point increase in occupancy from Q1 2021 trailed those of PEI (+430) and Tanger (+260). Pennsylvania REIT (PEI) reported similar trends of stabilizing vacancy and rental spreads, but the clock is ticking for the troubled landlord to raise capital through asset sales to pay down its substantial debt load.

mall occupancy

Hoya Capital

Shopping Center: (Final Grade: A-) Unlike their mall REIT peers, Shopping Center REITs entered 2022 with fundamentals that are as strong - or possibly even stronger - than before the pandemic with a full recovery completed. Results from shopping center REITs were once again quite impressive as eleven of twelve REITs that provide guidance raised their full-year FFO outlook. Results from Kite Realty (KRG) were most impressive with a 330 basis point increase in its full-year FFO growth outlook to 18.0% - the strongest in the sector. Regency Centers (REG) was also an upside standout after reporting very strong results and raising its full-year outlook, boosting its full-year FFO outlook by 280 basis points and its SSNOI outlook by 130 bps. Kimco (KIM) also reported very strong results and significantly raised its full-year FFO growth outlook to 8.8% - up 280 basis points from its prior guidance.

shopping center REITs

Hoya Capital

Net Lease: (Final Grade: B+) Results were also quite solid across the net lease sector with seven of the eleven REITs that provide guidance raising their full-year FFO outlook. National Retail (NNN) was the upside standout, boosting its FFO growth outlook to 6.5% - up 280 basis points. STORE Capital (STOR) reported similarly strong results and boosted its full-year FFO growth outlook to 8.0% - up 70 bps - and set a company record with $513M in Q1 acquisitions. We were also pleased with results from Getty Realty (GTY), which raised its growth outlook to 7.1% - up 100 basis points from its prior forecast while noting that it expects investment activity to accelerate throughout the year, consistent with the theme across the sector that rising rates haven't yet hindered the external growth activity across the net lease sector. The largest net lease REIT - Realty Income (O) - reaffirmed its 2022 earnings guidance which calls for FFO growth of 8.8%.

net lease REITs

Hoya Capital

Technology & Logistics Earnings Recap

Industrial: (Final Grade: A-) Strong earnings results have been met with carnage across the industrial space in a sell-off linked back to weaker-than-expected results from Amazon (AMZN) in late April. Fundamentals remain stellar, however, as six of the seven REITs that provide guidance raised their full-year FFO growth outlook including Prologis (PLD), First Industrial (FR), and Duke Realty (DRE) which all reported a remarkable surge in rent growth and raised their full-year outlook. PLD noted that its average rents on existing leases are 47% below market, equating to $2 per share of embedded earnings growth as these leases renew at current market rates. Elsewhere, Industrial Logistics (ILPT) reported disappointingly slow progress in its plan to reduce its debt by selling assets from its recently-acquired Monmouth portfolio and an FFO drag from its bridge loan being used to finance the deal.

industrial REIT NOI

Hoya Capital

Data Center: (Final Grade: B) Digital Realty (DLR) recorded its second-straight quarter of record leasing volume and, perhaps even more importantly, pricing power appeared to strengthen with cash renewal spreads rising by the most since Q3 2019. Equinix (EQIX) also reported strong results and raised its full-year AFFO growth outlook to 7.2%, up 20 basis points from its prior outlook driven by "the best net booking performance in our history, fueled by strong demand across all three regions, robust net pricing actions, and near-record low churn." Iron Mountain (IRM) executed 35MW of new and expansion leases - roughly $40M in annualized revenue - and now expected total additions of 130MW this year, up from 50MW in its prior outlook, an impressive total that establishes IRM as a series player in the space.

data center FFO growth 2022

Hoya Capital

Cell Tower: (Final Grade: B-) American Tower (AMT) reported in-line results, modestly raising its full-year AFFO growth outlook to 4.2% - up 10 basis points - and its full-year revenue growth outlook to 14% - up 80 basis points. Crown Castle (CCI) also reported in-line results with no major changes to its outlook - modestly raising its full-year revenue growth outlook but maintaining its FFO guidance. CCI commented on its earnings call: "With the three established network operators and a new intranet scale and DISH, all upgrading and developing nationwide 5G networks, the fundamentals in the U.S. market are as positive as I can remember during my 20-plus years at Crown Castle." Uniti Group (UNIT) was the lone REIT to lower its full-year FFO guidance in Q1, fractionally lowering its outlook by 30 basis points.

cell tower REITs

Hoya Capital

Residential REIT Earnings Recap

Apartment: (Final Grade: A) Apartment REITs continue to report stellar earnings results with record-setting rent growth near 20% while simultaneously managing to increase occupancy rates to record-highs and reduce turnover rates to record-lows. Upside standouts included sunbelt-focused Camden Property (CPT) which raised its full-year FFO growth outlook by 500 basis points to 20.8% and Mid-America (MAA) which raised its FFO outlook by 270 basis points to 15.5%. Rent growth on new leases climbed to 16% in Q1 and accelerated further to 18% in April with three REITs - NexPoint (NXRT), Apartment Income (AIRC), and Essex (ESS) all breaching the 20% threshold in April. Results from Equity Residential (EQR) and AvalonBay (AVB) were solid but less spectacular as strong leasing results were offset by an uptick in delinquency rates in its California market related to the delayed implementation of the state's rental assistance program.

apartment REITs 2021

Hoya Capital

Single-Family Rental: (Final Grade: B) SFR fundamentals remain similarly stellar as higher mortgage rates have simply shifted the robust housing demand from the ownership market back towards the rental markets. Invitation Homes (INVH) raised its outlook for full-year FFO growth to 12.5% - up 160 basis points from its prior outlook - and maintained its same-store NOI growth guidance at just shy of 10%. Results from American Homes (AMH) were similarly solid with new lease rates rising 12.3% in Q1 and accelerating further to 14.2% in April, but investors were a bit disappointed by the unchanged guidance. Given the persistent and widening spread between rent growth on new and renewal leases and record-low turnover rates, SFR REITs have perhaps been a bit too benevolent in their renewal offers to existing residents at below-market rates but we believe this has built-up a longer runway for sustained rent growth in 2023-2024.

single family rents

Hoya Capital

Storage: (Final Grade: A-) For the storage REITs, very strong earnings results have been met by unexplained carnage during earnings season. Extra Space (EXR) substantially raised its full-year outlook, commenting that it's "off to an exceptional start in 2022, driven by high occupancy and strong pricing power." EXR now sees FFO growth of 18.3% this year - up 510 basis points from its prior outlook - and raised its same-store NOI growth by 350 bps to 16.5%. CubeSmart (CUBE) raised its full-year FFO growth outlook by 50 basis points to 13.5% and also raised its same-store NOI growth outlook by 50 basis points to 11.0% while noting a "continuation of positive trends from 2021." Public Storage (PSA) reiterated its full-year FFO and NOI growth outlook, likely related to uncertainty over the timing and logistics of the PS Business Parks (PSB) acquisition by Blackstone, which will trigger a special dividend later this year for PSA shareholders for its 41% ownership stake in PSB.

storage REIT FFO growth 2022

Hoya Capital

Manufactured Housing: (Final Grade: B+) For MH REITs, the remarkable consistency of delivering 4-5% rent growth over the past decade has actually been a headwind given the double-digit rent growth achieved by other residential sectors. Sun Communities (SUI) reported solid results and raised its full-year outlook. SUI now sees full-year FFO growth of 11.5% - up 170 basis points from its prior outlook - and sees NOI growth of 6.9% - up 40 bps. As anticipated, the strong results were driven by stellar performance in its RV segment, which recorded same-store NOI growth of 23% in Q1. Equity LifeStyle (ELS) reported similarly strong results and raised its FFO growth outlook to 7.9% - up considerably from its initial guidance last quarter of 6.3%. It also sees NOI growth of 6.8% - up 90 bps from its prior guidance of 5.9%, powered again by strong performance in its RV and marina segment.

manuactured housing

Hoya Capital

Healthcare: (Final Grade: B+) Healthcare REITs have been among the few places to hide throughout earnings. Sabra Health Care (SBRA) and Omega Healthcare (OHI) have been upside standout after reporting resolutions in rent collection issues from several troubled SNF operators and an uptick in occupancy rates throughout the quarter. Senior housing REIT Ventas (VTR) has also been an upside standout after reporting an impressive rebound in its Senior Housing Operating ("SHOP") resulting from a 420 basis point increase in occupancy to 83.0% and strong in-place resident rate increases of 8% during Q1, which outpaced inflationary expense pressures. Lab space and medical office REITs reported mostly in-line results, but have benefited from M&A interest after Welltower (WELL) made an all-cash offer to buy HR at $31.75/share earlier this year after the company had agreed to merge with Healthcare Trust of America (HTA).

healthcare REITs 2022

Hoya Capital

Office, Hotel, & Casino Earnings Recap

Office: (Final Grade: B+) Office leasing demand - and earnings results from these office REITs - have been surprisingly resilient, particularly for REITs focused on business-friendly Sunbelt regions and specialty lab space. Sunbelt-focused Highwoods (HIW) and Piedmont (PDM) both raised their full-year FFO growth outlooks as Sunbelt office markets continue to substantially outperform coastal markets. Outside of the Sunbelt, results from West Coast-focused Kilroy (KRC) were also impressive, driven by strong lab space demand. SL Green (SLG), Empire State Realty (ESRT), and Paramount (PGRE) - each of which focus on the NYC market - have seen a slow but steady recovery in leasing demand in the Manhattan market. The rents on these leases, however, remain well below pre-pandemic levels as SLG noted its renewal spreads were -15.1% in Q1 in its Manhattan market segment.

office REITs 2022

Hoya Capital

Hotel: (Final Grade: B) Helped by the growth-to-value rotation and by signs that the pandemic may finally be ending once-and-for-all, hotel REITs are the best-performing major REIT sector this year. More than two years after slashing their dividends to zero early in the pandemic, we're now seeing a growing number of hotel REITs resume their shareholder distributions as hotel occupancy returns to pre-pandemic levels. DiamondRock (DRH) announced that it expects its common stock dividend to resume in Q3 of 2022 while Host Hotels (HST) doubled its dividend rate. Apple Hospitality (APLE) - which was the first hotel REIT to meaningfully restore its dividend - also reported strong results, highlighted by preliminary data showing RevPAR for the month of April 2022 exceeded April 2019. Recent TSA Checkpoint data has shown that domestic travel recovered to 90% of pre-pandemic levels by late March, but trended sideways in April.

hotel occupancy 2022

Hoya Capital

Casino: (Final Grade: B) VICI Properties (VICI) officially closed on its previously announced acquisition of MGM Growth Properties (MGP), making it the largest owner of hotel and conference real estate in America with an estimated enterprise value of $44B. VICI boosted its full-year outlook by 450 basis points to incorporate the expected accretive impact of the transaction. Simultaneous with the deal closing, VICI entered into an amended and restated triple-net master lease with MGM Resorts (MGM) which has an initial total annual rent of $860.0M and annual escalators of 2.0% per year for the first 10 years and thereafter at 2.0% per year or the annual increase in the consumer price index, subject to a 3.0% cap, whichever is greater.

casino REIT FFO 2022

Hoya Capital

Mortgage REITs Earnings Recap

Residential mREITs: (Final Grade: B-) Mortgage REITs have been a bright spot amid the carnage over the past two weeks as earnings results confirmed that the brutal macro environment - and historic weakness in MBS valuations - hasn't been the catastrophe for mREITs that some expected. Residential mREIT Book Value Per Share ("BVPS") metrics declined by 8.5% in Q1 with New Residential (NRZ) leading on the upside with a 10% BVPS increase while Invesco Mortgage (IVR) has lagged with a nearly 30% decline. Sector stalwarts Annaly Capital (NLY) and AGNC Investment (AGNC) both reported better-than-expected EPS metrics and each described a "significantly improved" future investment outlook given the higher rate environment. We continue to emphasize that when buying individual mREITs (rather than diversified funds), quality is absolutely essential.

residential mREIT earnings

Hoya Capital

Commercial mREITs: (Final Grade: B) Book value changes across the commercial mREIT space have been far more muted - but nevertheless better-than-expected - with an average BVPS increase of 0.1% ranging from a high of 3.8% to a low of 1.7%. Blackstone Mortgage (BXMT) has been among the best-performing mREITs this year and reported that its BVPS was flat in Q1 at $27.21 while highlighting how its strategy is effectively a "floating rate business." Starwood Property (STWD) has also been an upside standout, reporting an increase in its Book Value Per Share ("BVPS") of 2.5% while noting that multifamily its largest property type. Elsewhere, Arbor Realty (ABR) raised its dividend for the second time this year, which also marked the eighth consecutive quarterly increase for the residential lender.

commercial mREITs

Hoya Capital

Earnings Recap: REITs Are Suddenly Cheap

Despite the strong slate of earnings reports across most property sectors, performance trends continue to be dominated by macroeconomic factors and the broader sell-off across essentially all asset classes. Critically, fundamentals across the REIT sector remain quite impressive across most property sectors with nearly 70% of REITs raising their full-year outlook, reflecting a high degree of confidence among REIT executives that the growth momentum will be sustained beyond the initial post-pandemic recovery and amid the rising rate environment. The steep sell-off combined with upward earnings revisions and dividend hikes has pulled valuations to the "cheapest" level since 2020 and swelled the average dividend yield to the highest since 2018.

REIT valuations 2022

Hoya Capital

For an in-depth analysis of all real estate sectors, be sure to check out all of our quarterly reports: Apartments, Homebuilders, Manufactured Housing, Student Housing, Single-Family Rentals, Cell Towers, Casinos, Industrial, Data Center, Malls, Healthcare, Net Lease, Shopping Centers, Hotels, Billboards, Office, Farmland, Storage, Timber, Mortgage, and Cannabis.

Disclosure: Hoya Capital Real Estate advises two Exchange-Traded Funds listed on the NYSE. In addition to any long positions listed below, Hoya Capital is long all components in the Hoya Capital Housing 100 Index and in the Hoya Capital High Dividend Yield Index. Index definitions and a complete list of holdings are available on our website.

high dividend yield index

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Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of RIET, HOMZ, STOR, NLY, AGNC, SRC, BXMT, UBA, GTY, MGP, ACC, NNN, STWD, HIW, CCI, SPG, SBRA, DOC, ILPT, SUI, INVH, AMT, REG, DRE, CUBE, IIPR, ARE, FR, CPT, EQIX, APLE, MAA, PCH, PLD, DLR, LAMR, MDC, KRG either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: Hoya Capital Real Estate ("Hoya Capital") is a research-focused Registered Investment Advisor headquartered in Rowayton, Connecticut. Founded with a mission to make real estate more accessible to all investors, Hoya Capital specializes in managing institutional and individual portfolios of publicly traded real estate securities, focused on delivering sustainable income, diversification, and attractive total returns.

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