Weekly petroleum report at 10:30 am

by: Michael McAllister

Due to the federal closings in observation of Memorial Day, the DOE petroleum report was moved to Thursday a day after its usual release.    Rumors have swirled that yesterday's run up in crude oil (+$1.83) was due to a leaking of the numbers to be released today. 

Why the idea of rumors?  Well, the crude run-up was in the face of a strengthening US dollar which conventional wisdom states should not occur.  A week is not a trend, but its a good idea to see what relationship develops between the two.

Bloomberg estimates:   +125k of crude,     +400k of gasoline,      +1.45m of   distillates

Similar to the natural gas discussion from yesterday---ICAP conducted an auction today at 8:30 am where qualifying parties can take positions on what the change in crude stocks will be today at 10:30.  You can follow the action here.

The ICAP trading implies a drop of 40k of crude supplies.  Not a great differential to the Bloomberg estimate, but the sentiment of a drop could explain the price action of yesterday.   We will see at 10:30.