Retailing Sector Review: Featuring Williams-Sonoma, Target, Amazon

May 22, 2022 1:50 AM ETWilliams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM)AMZN6 Comments
Peter F. Way, CFA profile picture
Peter F. Way, CFA
17.74K Followers

Summary

  • WSM first, since we favor Best-Odds for Big Near Payoff, but have concern over price drops >-25% (TGT) and Range Indexes at 5-year lows of price (AMZN).
  • Plus concern over Market-Index ETF forecast with larger downside than upside, when history of recent declines at today’s (SPY) forecast are worse than the upside.
  • These are not encouraging times for “Institutional Investment Organizations” who have capital to invest and are demonstrating their extreme concerns over having “flight capital” problems.
  • Still, their overall appraisal of 3,000+ equities is that most are priced below where value comparisons in the population see them as belonging. They see this as a buy-time, not generally a sell-time.
Business on Wall Street in Manhattan

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Investment Theme

When investing, TIME is an essential resource, along with capital. Because when capital is compounded by the efficient use of time, it is far more powerful than when time is wasted, like it is under a “Buy & Hold” delusion or under “wealth-building” by dividend accrual “drips” at miniscule rates of “reward”.

This article was written by

Peter F. Way, CFA profile picture
17.74K Followers
Peter Way Associates provides daily updated, near-term (3-month) price range forecasts for over 2,500 widely-held and actively-traded stocks, ETFs and market Indexes. Comprehensive results are available on the SA blog of my name.__These forecasts are derived from the way market professionals protect their own capital placed at risk while helping big-money portfolio managers adjust their holdings in multi-million-dollar "block" transactions.__ They cannot be found elsewhere.__Having these price-change prospects available on a continuous basis encourages individual investors to actively and economically build up the values of their own smaller portfolios. PWA only provides information for individual investors; it no longer manages investments for others.__Rates of portfolio capital growth being achieved by subscribers are at MULTIPLES of the growth in market averages, due to the efficient use of holding period time and the compounding of gains a number of times each year.__Risks of capital loss are protected against by insightful selection guidance and holding-period-limit disciplines. The advantages of good selection and careful timing amply cover a much smaller portion of unavoidable losses.__These Market-maker forecasts have several decades of demonstrated productivity. Earlier in the 20th century they were used by large institutional portfolios, and now in the 21st century they are available only to individual investor wealth-building portfolios. Thousands of day-by-day identifications of specific securities having consistent, odds-on profitable results rule out any likelihood of their exceptional outcomes being due to chance. Peter F. Way is a veteran Chartered Financial Analyst, having taken and passed the CFA Institute’s required 3 examinations in the first years they were given, 50+ years ago. Armed with BS in Economics from the Wharton School and an MBA degree from Harvard Business School, he has managed staffs of dozens of Investment Researchers and Quantitative Analysts for the nation’s largest bank, arbitraged index options for NYSE Specialists, and managed portfolios of hundred-million-dollar equity investments for Fortune 100 corporate pension funds and non-profit endowments. He has been elected President of professional Investment Analyst Societies in San Diego and New York City and has served on the editorial boards of the Financial Analysts Journal and the CFA Digest.

Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in WSM over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: Additional disclosure: Peter Way and generations of the Way Family are long-term providers of perspective information, earlier helping professional investors and now individual investors, discriminate between wealth-building opportunities in individual stocks and ETFs. We do not manage money for others outside of the family but do provide pro bono consulting for a limited number of not-for-profit organizations.
We firmly believe investors need to maintain skin in their game by actively initiating commitment choices of capital and time investments in their personal portfolios. So our information presents for D-I-Y investor guidance what the arguably best-informed professional investors are thinking. Their insights, revealed through their own self-protective hedging actions, tell what they believe is most likely to happen to the prices of specific issues in coming weeks and months. Evidences of how such prior forecasts have worked out are routinely provided.

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