Rackspace Technology: Deep In Busted IPO Territory

Summary

  • Shares of multicloud services provider Rackspace Technology, Inc. have fallen over 55% from their IPO price owing to concerns over operating margins.
  • The company is undergoing a transition from higher-margin legacy businesses to lower-margin but faster-growing and less operating expense-intensive managed public cloud service business.
  • Trading at 12.3x FY22 EPS, this busted IPO merited further investigation.
  • A full investment analysis follows in the paragraphs below.
  • Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of The Busted IPO Forum get exclusive access to our model portfolio. Learn More »

Businessman hand holding cloud computing online connecting to big data analytics. Block chain network technology and intelligence data storage develop smart decision in global business solution.

ipopba/iStock via Getty Images

I believe that truth has only one face: that of a violent contradiction."― Georges Bataille

Today, we take an in-depth look at a tech concern whose stocks has fallen on hard times despite decent revenue growth and reasonable valuations at first glance. A full analysis follows in the paragraphs below.

RXT Stock Chart

Seeking Alpha

Company Overview:

Rackspace Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:RXT) is a San Antonio-based end-to-end multicloud technology services concern that develops and operates customer cloud environments across all major technology platforms. The company boasts having served over 100,000 customers across 120 countries as of YE21, including more than half of the Fortune 100.

Rackspace was founded in 1998 as an IT infrastructure company for small to mid-sized businesses, initially going public in 2008. With the aid of private equity shop Apollo Global Management (APO), it went private via leveraged buyout in 2016 and transformed into a pure-play cloud solutions company. It then reentered the public markets in August 2020, raising net proceeds of $666.6 million at $21 a share. The stock trades right at just over nine bucks a share, translating to a market cap of $1.95 billion. Apollo still owns 61% of Rackspace.

Reporting Segments

Management operates its business through three segments: Multicloud Services; Apps & Cross Platform; and OpenStack Public Cloud.

Multicloud Services includes managed private clouds powered by technologies like VMware (VMW), multicloud deployments, management of applications and data on public clouds such as Amazon's (AMZN) AWS, Microsoft (MSFT) Azure, and Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) Cloud, as well as "mature" offerings such as managed hosting and colocations services. This segment is responsible for a large majority of Rackspace's revenue, generating $2.45 billion in FY21, up 14% from FY20 and representing 81% of total.

This segment is undergoing a transformation from its higher gross margin mature offerings that are hosted on its own infrastructure to lower gross margin managed public cloud services. However, since the latter is hosted on third-party infrastructure, they require lower operating expenses (and cap ex), meaning that the operating margins should be relatively similar for both offerings. The transition is ongoing but nearing completion, with 75% of the Multicloud Services' FY21 top line coming from high-growth markets, such as managed cloud services and Rackspace Services for VMware Cloud, and revenue from these markets was up 30% over FY20.

Apps & Cross Platform includes managed applications, managed security and data services, as well as professional services related to designing and implementing application, security, and data service. It accounted for FY21 revenue of $377.6 million, up 12% from FY20, representing 13% of total.

OpenStack Public Cloud is a high-margin legacy business that has been de-emphasized since 2017 and is not included in the company's core results. It generated FY21 revenue of $182.8 million, down 20% from the previous year, now representing only a 6% contribution to Rackspace's top line.

To improve on its operating profitability and better align with its business mix shift strategy, the company announced a restructuring in July 2021 that included a 10% workforce reduction and a $50.5 million charge to realize $95 to $100 million in annual savings as many of its service centers were moved offshore.

Managed Services & Cloud Marketplace and Rackspace's Position in it

Rackspace markets itself on its automation technology, multicloud expertise, ~3,000-partner strong ecosystem, and differentiated customer experience to increase share in what is forecasted to be a $520 billion managed services and cloud infrastructure marketplace by 2023. According to Gartner's survey of public cloud users, 80% have adopted a multicloud approach. Furthermore, AWS sees the cloud market as only being 5-15% penetrated. All of these dynamics should provide a strong tailwind for Rackspace.

In addition to the in-house IT efforts of customers and would-be customers, the company competes against IT systems integrators, single cloud service providers and digital system integrators, regional managed cloud service providers, and colocation concerns - over which, in each instance, management believes it enjoys some form of advantage. For example, IT systems integrators such as Accenture (ACN), Cognizant (CTSH), Deloitte, and IBM (IBM) provide consulting and outsourcing to enterprise level customers, but their legacy IT revenue streams disincentivize them (according to Rackspace) from enthusiastically transitioning customers to the cloud. Furthermore, single cloud service providers' offerings are too narrow in scope to service larger clients with multicloud objectives.

Most of the company's core business revenue is generated from monthly recurring fees. After landing a client with infrastructure services, the company then attempts to move up the technology stack and expand with offerings including cloud-native apps and data. There are certainly enough customers to upsell with its 100,000+ strong base that allows negligible concentration concerns, with no client accounting for 3% of its top line in FY21. The flip-side to this dynamic is that the announcement of the biggest new business win in the company's history, a deal to migrate BT's hybrid customers to its technology, was met with a relative yawn.

Stock Price Performance

Investors have been yawning at shares or RXT for some time as they are down 65% from their all-time high of $26.43 set in April 2021 as the market has chosen to focus on the company's gross margin, operating margin, and net income lines in the higher interest rate environment. It's not that Rackspace isn't profitable on a non-GAAP basis, having improved net income by 36% to $206.5 million in FY21, or $0.97 a share; it's more a function of believing that the company's transformation to third-party multicloud services will result in growth at these lines, a concept Street analysts started to focus on after its 2Q21 and 4Q21 earnings reports.

Quarterly Earnings

There was nothing wrong with Rackspace's final stanza of 2021 (per se), in which it earned $0.25 a share (non-GAAP) and Adj. EBITDA of $183.2 million on revenue of $777.3 million versus $0.26 a share (non-GAAP) and Adj. EBITDA of $198.8 million on revenue of $716.2 million in 4Q20. These results beat Street expectations by $0.01 and $6.1 million at the bottom and top lines, respectively.

Q4 Highlights

February Company Presentation

The problem stemmed from the company's outlook on margins. After generating gross margins of 31.1% and Adj. operating margins of 16.1% in FY21 - down from 36.4% and 17.5% (respectively) in FY20 - management guided gross margins to "around 30%" and a "range of 14% to 15%" for FY22, blaming some of the decline on the preparation required to onboard BT clients to its cloud. Either way, it continued to invalidate its narrative of flattish operating margins as gross margins compress due to the business mix shift. Furthermore, Rackspace's 1Q22 non-GAAP earnings outlook of $0.20 to $0.22 a share was well below Street consensus of $0.26.

Q4 Highlights

February Company Presentation

On May 10th, the company reported first quarter numbers. The company had non-GAAP earnings of 22 cents a share as revenues rose nearly 7% on a year-over-year basis to $776 million. Leadership guided to $780 million to $790 million worth of sales for Q2, a bit under the roughly $800 million analysts were expecting at the time. The company did have $65 million worth of operational cash flow in the quarter.

Q1 Highlights

May Company Presentation

Balance Sheet & Analyst Commentary

In addition to its gross and operating margins taking a hit, the company has also stated that its free cash flow - which improved dramatically from essentially zero in FY20 to $262.4 million in FY21 - would, as a percentage of revenue, fall below the 8.7% generated in FY21. Considering its debt of $3.4 billion against cash of around $300 million - for a leverage ratio of 4.3 - this development has not sat well with investors.

Balance Sheet

May Company Presentation

Analysts have been mixed on Rackspace since its last earnings report. Five analyst firms including Citigroup and RBC Capital have maintained Buy or Outperform ratings, albeit three of these contained downward price target revisions. Price targets proffered ranged from $11 to $16 a share. Both BMO Capital ($10.50 price target) and Deutsche Bank ($9 price target) reissued Hold ratings. 18% of the outstanding float is currently held short. There has been no insider activity in the stock so far in 2022.

Verdict:

The current analysis consensus sees a slight in earnings in FY2022 to around 75 cents a share as revenues rise in the 6-7 percent range to $3.2 billion.

Rackspace is in a sexy industry, but with unsexy margins and high debt, the market is only assigning a P/E of 12.3 to 2022 earnings, a price-to-FY22E sales ratio of .6, and an EV/TTM Adj. EBITDA multiple of under seven. It can be argued that this a 2023 story, when the company substantially reaps the benefits from the BT partnership and almost all of its transitioning is behind them. Furthermore, as private equity is wont to do, Apollo will likely be looking for favorable price points to exit some of its position over the next year. As such, Rackspace seems like it is dead money for now while we wait for a turnaround in margins or perceptions about them.

It's a most distressing affliction to have a sentimental heart and a skeptical mind."― Naguib Mahfouz

Author's note: I present and update my best small-cap Busted IPO stock ideas only to subscribers of my exclusive marketplace, The Busted IPO Forum. Try a free 2-week trial today by clicking on our logo below!

This article was written by

Busted IPO Forum profile picture
7.62K Followers
Profit from 'Busted IPOs' - attractive but unloved small and midcap stocks

The Busted IPO Forum founded by Bret Jensen, is a hypothetical $200K portfolio built of stocks that have been public for 18 months to five years that are significantly under their offering price. Many times after the initial analyst hyperbole has died and lockups have expired, these same companies can be had for .30 to .50 cents on the dollar from when the shares went public. As lucrative as this niche has been for my portfolio over the years, a service or newsletter has not existed that covered this segment of the market -- until now! The goal in creating the Busted IPO Forum is to build a portfolio of 15-20 small cap and mid cap busted IPOs which consistently outperform the Russell 2000 over time. As of 07/02/2021 our model portfolio has generated an overall return of 73.84% substantially above the 52.37% gain from the Russell 2000 over the same time frame.

• • •

Specializing in profiling high beta sectors, Bret Jensen founded and also manages The Biotech Forum, The Insiders Forum, and the Busted IPO Forum model portfolios. Finding “gems” in the biotech and small-cap stock sectors, these highly volatile spaces proven hugely successful have empowered Bret Jensen's own investing portfolio.

• • •

Learn more about Bret Jensen's Marketplace offerings:

The Insiders Forum | The Biotech Forum | Busted IPO Forum

Follow

Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: Bret Jensen is the Founder of and authors articles for the Biotech Forum, Busted IPO Forum and Insiders Forum.

Recommended For You

Comments (1)

To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.
Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.
If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.