Boston Beer: Hard Seltzer Bubble Has Popped, Stock Is Below March 2020 Levels


  • The Boston Beer Company is a well-known stock which has come down significantly in value over the last year.
  • The share price rose meteorically in 2020 and topped out in 2021, due to a bubble being formed, in part by rapid growth of its Truly Hard Seltzer brand.
  • The company initially overestimated demand for their hard seltzers, leading to an epic crash and continued bear market, which may be finally hitting a support level.
  • With a Price-to-Sales ratio of 1.9, the stock is getting cheap given the continued revenue growth despite short-term operating margin collapse.
  • Operating margins and ROE will normalize over time as supply chain issues and other problems get sorted out by management.

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Investment Thesis

The Boston Beer Company (NYSE:SAM) has experienced a major reversal in terms of the share price over the last year. After reaching a high of nearly $1,300 per share in early 2021, the stock has collapsed

SAM chart

SAM 5 Yr Chart (Google)

SAM valuation

SAM 10 Yr Valuation History (

This article was written by

I come from a family of long-term investors, and over the last several years I have immersed myself in the markets completely, trying to learn as much as possible. My brother, Adam Ebbinghouse, is also a contributor on Seeking Alpha. My approach to investing has been a mix of value and growth, with an emphasis on microcap companies recently.

Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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