SPY: Looking For A Technical Bounce

Jun. 19, 2022 10:47 AM ETSPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY)10 Comments11 Likes

Summary

  • This is a technical analysis article. The SPY is oversold and looking for positive news that will trigger a technical bounce.
  • It needs a fundamental basis to start forming a bottom, such as bargain PE and PEG levels.
  • It needs a technical basis to form a bottom, like exhaustion selling or panic selling that flushes the last sellers out of the market.
  • Until the fundamental and technical stars are in alignment for a bottom to this bear market, the best we can hope for are strong technical bounces.
  • The SPY does not dive straight down, but attracts bargain hunters, contrarian traders, bots, short covering and good news to create demand for a technical bounce.
  • I do much more than just articles at Daily Index Beaters: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more. Learn More »

Two young men playing with bounce and hop balls

Mike Powell/DigitalVision via Getty Images

Traders, market makers, hedge funds and bots look for contrarian moves like a technical bounce after a big selloff in the market (NYSEARCA:SPY). The big question is not “if” but “when” do we get the bounce? The simplistic answer is when price stops going down, because the sellers are exhausted and the traders and shorts rush in to buy for the move back up. Naturally the copy cat bots jump in and do the same. It’s a no-brainer and the bots have no brains. Luckily we do and we should see the bounce faster than the bots and jump in before them for the ride back up to resistance.

There is no magic in seeing the start of the bounce up. You just have to be proactive, spot the Supply drying up and catch the first glimpse of Demand coming in to start the technical bounce. If you are a “tape reader”, you will see it happening on the real time candlesticks. Or, if you are like me, you will see it in the chart signals. If you have a friend on a trading desk, maybe he will text you and let you know. Our 20-day bar chart for Demand and Supply tips us off. Leading indicators on the chart signals also put us in a proactive mode, ready for the start of the technical bounce.

We may not even need these signals, when we see a surprising bit of good, fundamental news pop up on our computer. For example, an end to the war in the Ukraine would create a tremendous bounce. A more likely scenario might be some good earnings reports in July, indicating that the consumer is still spending, despite inflation and high gasoline prices. Consumers want to get out and enjoy life after COVID and they have the money to do it. That recession isn’t until next year at the earliest. The pinch of higher prices and interest rates is still only a pinch, not as painful as an unemployment check.

Unfortunately, right now the SPY is walking around lost in the desert of no real news, like lots of earnings reports that will be coming out in July. Not only is there a lack of good news, some companies may pre-announce bad news. After all, they have the revenue numbers booked, probably already know the earnings and are looking for some optional, internal event to meet expectations when they announce. They know right now if earnings will be a disaster and they may give the analysts a heads up. That will take price down in the next couple of weeks, before earnings are announced.

We don’t expect Tuesday will start the week off with any bounce. More than likely, we will see pent-up selling from overseas due to the Monday Juneteenth holiday closing of the markets in the U.S. celebrating the end of slavery. Further, the daily chart shows that we are still in a short term selling cycle that may last until the July 4th holiday. Then we could see the start of a bounce that accelerates as earnings are reported in July.

We publish a daily update on the SPY, but it is difficult to see the trend when you try to parse the day to day fluctuations in the SPY. To be ready for the technical bounce, we like to look at the weekly and monthly charts, because the signals are more reliable. If the daily chart has any value, it is as a leading indicator to the weekly chart. Of course, for day traders, the daily chart is their long term chart, but not for us.

Here is the daily chart and you can see all the signals are down and the SPY is just waiting for some good news to start the technical bounce from deeply oversold.

SPY 4 Gap Down Openings

SPY Daily Chart In Free Fall (StockCharts.com)

On the chart above, you can see price is in a free fall, with four days with opening gaps down in the last seven trading days. Price pauses on two days at weak support levels. Next stop is $348 and we think that is a strong support level where we expect a bounce, fueled by July 4th holiday optimism and the July earnings report. We are looking for a bounce from ~$350 to ~$390 by the end of July. Of course, we will watch the signals to tell us and they make our decisions, not our expectations for the next bounce. The first indication of the start of a technical bounce will appear on the signals of this daily chart.

Below is the weekly chart and it has the advantage of eliminating the emotions and false starts of the daily chart. The daily chart is for traders and the weekly chart is for investors. The weekly has the advantage of more reliable signals and the disadvantage of being late.

SPY - Only Gap Down Like This On the Chart

SPY Weekly Chart Negative Gap Down (StockCharts.com)

Look at the gap down in price this past week. There is no other gap like this on the chart. This, along with the extreme indicators of Supply on the chart, are a setup for a technical bounce. Usually gaps are filled and a strong technical bounce, fueled by July earnings reports, may do the trick. After all, we are getting closer and closer to a bottom, even though there is no sign of a bottom yet. We can see the market is extremely oversold and where the bottom might be on the chart. However, we will wait for it to actually happen.

At the top of the chart is our longer term, proprietary Sell Signal. It uses both fundamentals and technicals. Right now, our short term signal is also a sell. We will change to a buy to catch the short term, bounce up. Stay tuned.

Conclusions

Bear market bounces come up short, as we saw on the last technical bounce. All of that will change when the market has a bottom in place. However, there is no sign of a bottom yet. The SPY knows all the bad news from the Fed, the war, oil, inflation, and supply chain disruptions. That is why we have a bear market. It knows technology is out and value is back. High PEs and PEGs are coming down. The market is rotating into recession-proof stocks. When it sees any or all of the negative factors improving, we will have the start of the next bull market. My guess is the next bull appears in 2024. Meanwhile, we are waiting for July earnings reports to trigger a bounce in the SPY and fill the shocking gap down in price. The bottom of this bear market is getting closer. The consumer and earnings will be the last things to fall. The SPY is the leading indicator of what the economy is in for, as the Fed brings inflation back down to 2%. That may not happen until 2024.


Use our free, 30 day training program to become a successful trader or investor. Join us on Zoom to discuss your questions.

This article was written by

Tom Lloyd profile picture
5.95K Followers
Every day we look for index beaters for investing and trading.

Tom’s book "Successful Stock Signals for Traders and Portfolio Managers" is available on StockCharts.com and Amazon. The StocksInDemand.com system is designed to make money using a combined fundamental and technical grade for each stock. Tom received his MBA in Accounting from St. John's University, where he taught courses on the stock market. He marketed fundamental research, technical research and quantitative research to professional portfolio managers during his Wall St. career. dailyindexbeaters@gmail,com

Follow

Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Short position through short-selling of the stock, or purchase of put options or similar derivatives in SPY over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: Disclaimer: We are not investment advisers and we never recommend stocks or securities. Nothing on this website, in our reports and emails or in our meetings is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options are especially risky and most options expire worthless. You need to do your own due diligence and consult with a professional financial advisor before acting on any information provided on this website or at our meetings. Our meetings and website are for educational purposes only. Any content sent to you is sent out as any newspaper or newsletter, is for educational purposes and never should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The use of terms buy, sell or hold are not recommendations to buy sell or hold any security. They are used here strictly for educational purposes. Analysts price targets are educated guesses and can be wrong. Computer systems like ours, using analyst targets therefore can be wrong. Chart buy and sell signals can be wrong and are used by our system which can then be wrong. Therefore you must always do your own due diligence before buying or selling any stock discussed here. Past results may never be repeated again and are no indication of how well our SID score Buy signal will do in the future. We assume no liability for erroneous data or opinions you hear at our meetings and see on this website or its emails and reports. You use this website and our meetings at your own risk.

Recommended For You

Comments (10)

To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.
Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.
If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.