FIDU: Industrials Dashboard For June

Summary

  • The transportation industry is undervalued relative to 11-year averages.
  • FIDU: an alternative to XLI.
  • 10 stocks cheaper than their peers in June.
  • Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Quantitative Risk & Value get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More »

UPS Airlines Boeing B767-300ERF (N353UP) freighter.

viper-zero/iStock Editorial via Getty Images

This monthly article series shows a dashboard with aggregate subsector metrics in industrials. It is also a top-down analysis of sector ETFs like the Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) and the Fidelity MSCI Industrials Index ETF (NYSEARCA:FIDU), whose largest holdings are used to calculate these metrics.

Shortcut

The next two paragraphs in italic describe the dashboard methodology. They are necessary for new readers to understand the metrics. If you are used to this series or if you are short of time, you can skip them and go to the charts.

Base Metrics

I calculate the median value of five fundamental ratios for each subsector: Earnings Yield ("EY"), Sales Yield ("SY"), Free Cash Flow Yield ("FY"), Return on Equity ("ROE"), Gross Margin ("GM"). The reference universe includes large companies in the U.S. stock market. The five base metrics are calculated on trailing 12 months. For all of them, higher is better. EY, SY and FY are medians of the inverse of Price/Earnings, Price/Sales and Price/Free Cash Flow. They are better for statistical studies than price-to-something ratios, which are unusable or non available when the "something" is close to zero or negative (for example, companies with negative earnings). I also look at two momentum metrics for each group: the median monthly return (RetM) and the median annual return (RetY).

I prefer medians to averages because a median splits a set in a good half and a bad half. A capital-weighted average is skewed by extreme values and the largest companies. My metrics are designed for stock-picking rather than index investing.

Value and Quality Scores

I calculate historical baselines for all metrics. They are noted respectively EYh, SYh, FYh, ROEh, GMh, and they are calculated as the averages on a look-back period of 11 years. For example, the value of EYh for transportation in the table below is the 11-year average of the median Earnings Yield in transportation companies. The Value Score ("VS") is defined as the average difference in % between the three valuation ratios (EY, SY, FY) and their baselines (EYh, SYh, FYh). The same way, the Quality Score ("QS") is the average difference between the two quality ratios (ROE, GM) and their baselines (ROEh, GMh).

The scores are in percentage points. VS may be interpreted as the percentage of undervaluation or overvaluation relative to the baseline (positive is good, negative is bad). This interpretation must be taken with caution: the baseline is an arbitrary reference, not a supposed fair value. The formula assumes that the three valuation metrics are of equal importance.

Current data

The next table shows the metrics and scores as of last week's closing. Columns stand for all the data named and defined above.

VS

QS

EY

SY

FY

ROE

GM

EYh

SYh

FYh

ROEh

GMh

RetM

RetY

Aerospace+Defense

-25.43

-10.25

0.0541

0.6045

0.0210

18.33

19.95

0.0563

0.8075

0.0398

20.47

22.18

-6.16%

-0.82%

Building+Equipment

-45.77

19.81

0.0312

0.3117

0.0121

10.70

32.72

0.0426

0.8458

0.0230

9.56

25.62

-6.14%

-8.03%

Machinery+Conglomerates

-13.39

5.93

0.0524

0.4427

0.0233

20.69

39.13

0.0498

0.5555

0.0311

19.19

37.60

-7.83%

-17.10%

Services+Distribution

-21.86

25.05

0.0370

0.3096

0.0241

33.19

49.80

0.0408

0.4842

0.0302

22.35

49.05

-5.68%

-6.07%

Transportation

43.88

-1.87

0.0540

1.0011

0.0381

29.71

17.87

0.0541

0.6991

0.0202

22.95

26.76

-8.52%

-16.14%

Value and Quality chart

The next chart plots the Value and Quality Scores by subsectors (higher is better).

Value and Quality in Industrials

Value and Quality in Industrials (Chart: author; data: Portfolio123)

Evolution since last month

Since last month, the building/construction/equipment subsector has deteriorated in value and quality.

FIDU Score Variations

Score Variations (Chart: author; data: Portfolio123)

Momentum

The next chart plots momentum data.

FIDU Momentum in Industrials

Momentum in Industrials (Chart: author; data: Portfolio123)

Interpretation

The transportation industry is undervalued by a wide margin relative to 11-year averages and its quality score is close to the baseline. Other subsectors are overvalued by 13% to 46% relative to historical averages. It may be partly justified by a good quality score for services and distribution, and to a lesser extent for the building/construction/equipment subsector. Aerospace/defense has both value and quality scores significantly below the baseline.

Fast facts on FIDU

The Fidelity MSCI Industrials Index ETF has been tracking the MSCI US IMI Industrials 25/25 Index since 10/21/2013. It has a total expense ratio of 0.08%, cheaper than XLI (0.12%).

As of writing, the fund holds 363 stocks. The next table shows the top 10 holdings with their valuation ratios and dividend yields. Their aggregate weight is 31.5%.

Ticker

Name

Weight

EPS growth %TTM

P/E TTM

P/E fwd

Yield%

RTX

Raytheon Technologies Corp.

3.98%

255.44

31.88

18.61

2.48

UNP

Union Pacific Corp.

3.95%

36.24

19.60

17.68

2.52

HON

Honeywell International Inc.

3.73%

15.19

23.87

20.59

2.18

UPS

United Parcel Service Inc.

3.72%

104.00

13.97

13.36

3.55

CAT

Caterpillar Inc.

3.27%

90.57

16.15

15.47

2.49

LMT

Lockheed Martin Corp.

3.06%

-8.63

17.84

15.03

2.77

DE

Deere & Co.

2.95%

32.12

16.84

13.93

1.40

GE

General Electric Co.

2.41%

-85.06

N/A

23.03

0.48

MMM

3M Co.

2.41%

-1.97

13.52

12.12

4.59

BA

Boeing Co.

2.05%

59.77

N/A

N/A

0

FIDU has underperformed XLI since FIDU inception (see next table). However, the difference in annualized return is only 58 bps. The maximum drawdown and volatility are almost identical.

Total Return

Annual. Return

Drawdown

Sharpe

Volatility

FIDU

97.84%

8.21%

-39.59%

0.54

17.83%

XLI

107.15%

8.79%

-39.66%

0.6

17.63%

Data calculated with Portfolio123

In summary, FIDU is a good product with cheap management fees for investors seeking capital-weighted exposure in industrials. It has much more holdings than XLI (363 vs. 75), but it doesn’t make a significant difference in performance between them since 2013. The heaviest industries in the fund’s equity value are machinery (20.75%) and aerospace/defense (17.71%). The heaviest holding weighs about 4%, so the risk related to individual stocks is quite low. Investors willing a lower maximum weight may prefer the Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight Industrials ETF (RGI), whose largest holdings weighs about 2% of asset value. FIDU and XLI are similar for buy-and-hold investors. However, XLI has a much higher liquidity, making it a better choice for trading and tactical allocation.

Dashboard List

I use the first table to calculate value and quality scores. It may also be used in a stock-picking process to check how companies stand among their peers. For example, the EY column tells us that a transportation company with an Earnings Yield above 0.0540 (or price/earnings below 18.52) is in the better half of the subsector regarding this metric. A Dashboard List is sent every month to Quantitative Risk & Value subscribers with the most profitable companies standing in the better half among their peers regarding the three valuation metrics at the same time. The list below was sent to subscribers several weeks ago based on data available at this time.

RHI

Robert Half International Inc.

BCO

Brink's Co.

MATX

Matson Inc.

BCC

Boise Cascade Co.

WIRE

Encore Wire Corp.

BLDR

Builders FirstSource Inc.

XPO

XPO Logistics Inc.

VNT

Vontier Corp.

AJRD

Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings Inc.

CARR

Carrier Global Corp.

It is a rotating list with a statistical bias toward excess returns on the long-term, not the result of an analysis of each stock.

From January 2017 to December 2021, the Dashboard List has returned about 81% (all sectors together) vs. 66% for its benchmark Russell 1000 Value Index (past performance is not a guarantee of future returns). QRV Members get updates on it and other time-tested strategies, plus risk indicators. Get started with a two-week free trial now.

This article was written by

Fred Piard profile picture
14.34K Followers
Data-driven model portfolios and market risk indicators.
Author of Quantitative Risk & Value and three books, I have been investing in systematic strategies since 2010. I have a PhD in computer science, an MSc in software engineering, an MSc in civil engineering and 30 years of professional experience in various sectors. My aim is making simple and efficient quantitative investing techniques available to my followers. Quantitative models can make investment decisions faster, reproducible and emotionless by focusing on relevant information in the middle of market noise. Moreover, models can be refined to meet specific risk tolerance and objectives. 

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I am an individual investor and an IT professional, not a finance professional. My writings are data analysis and opinions, not investment advice. They may contain inaccurate information, despite all the effort I put in them. Readers are responsible for all consequences of using information included in my work, and are encouraged to do their own research from various sources.

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Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of MMM, UPS either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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