Global-e Online Ltd. (NASDAQ:GLBE) is a $3 billion market cap internet & direct marketing retail company in the consumer discretionary sector. According to Fidelity Investments, the company and its subsidiaries provide "a platform to enable and accelerate direct-to-consumer cross-border e-commerce in Israel, the United Kingdom, the United States, and internationally. Its platform enables international shoppers to buy online and merchants to sell from, and to, worldwide. Global-e Online Ltd. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Petah Tikva, Israel."
The stock has endured a wild ride since its IPO last year. The $25 IPO price, according to Nasdaq.com, was a launch pad for a surge to above $83 last September after trading began just 13 months ago. The stock has fully round-tripped... and then some. Shares currently trade under $20 but may have found a floor. I'll detail that later.
Fundamentally, GLBE features negative earnings per share looking out to next year and 2024. The company does not pay a dividend and its free cash flow yield is paltry. Moreover, its enterprise value to EBITDA ratio is sky-high around 70x right now, though analysts at Bank of America Global Research expect that to drop in the coming two years.
The upshot is that Global-e is expanding its U.S. presence. BofA notes that the company acquired Borderfree, a subsidiary of Pitney Bowes for $100 million in an all-cash deal. That's the second big acquisition already in 2022 - Global-e bought Flow Commerce in January for $500 million. Amid these acquisitions, execution risks are high. Still, BofA places a $30 price target on its shares based on an EV/gross multiple valuation. They cite risks from the deals, tough pandemic comps, and continued supply chain issues, among others.
The stock recently reported a $0.35 per share loss in its Q1 2022 earnings report, below analyst expectations of $-0.056, according to First Call Consensus.
Looking ahead, the corporate event calendar is somewhat light for GLBE. There was a technology conference slated for later this month, but after digging, I found that Jefferies moved that event to September. So keep your eye out for potential market-moving news at that event in three months. The next earnings date is unconfirmed for August 16 AMC, according to data provider Wall Street Horizon.
Turning to the charts, something I specialize in, it doesn't take words to tell how bad the story has been. The drawdown off the 2021 peak is more than 75%. Making the drop even harsher is that it traded in a range from about $50 to above $80 for just about the entire second half of last year. There are many so-called "dead bodies" in that range. That is tough long-term resistance.
Near-term, however, I see a tradable bottom. There's support in the $15.87-16.80 range. That area, tested three times since early May, continues to hold. I'd like to see GLBE climb above $24 to confirm that low - also keep in mind the psychologically-important IPO price is just above that. If we do breakout above the mid-$20s a longer-term target to the prior range-base in the upper $40s could be in-play.
GLBE is another sad IPO story of 2021. Free cash flow is weak, and the valuation is still expensive. It's not all doom and gloom, though. I see support on the chart. The bulls might be gathering steam below the IPO price right now. A swing long trade here with a stop under the May low makes sense to me.
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