Sentiment Speaks: An Update On Many Segments Of The Market

Summary

  • The SPX should be bottoming out for the next few months.
  • The metals are setting up their own bottoming.
  • The TLT could see one more lower low before a major rally takes hold.
  • This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard. Learn More »

Bull vs bear

Florent Molinier/iStock via Getty Images

For those that have been reading me lately, you would know that I have been taking a lot more time off for health reasons, as I have been quite overworked and have been traveling away from the office. While I have been continually providing my analysis in my services even while I have been traveling, I simply have not had the time or desire to discuss or argue publicly in the comments section to articles. So, I decided to pen this article to give you a quick update as to my general views on the various markets I have discussed publicly in the past.

SPX

While I correctly warned that "in early 2022, we will see the largest pullback in the market that we have seen since the bottom struck in March of 2020," I clearly did not expect the market to drop this deeply. To that extent, this is likely the biggest miss in a primary prognostication that I have experienced since I opened ElliottWaveTrader almost 11 years ago. As I have said, I wish I could be right all the time, but I am human and will never be right 100% of the time. Those that have read my analysis through the years know quite well of our long-term accuracy, but this was clearly a miss.

Yet, the structure with which the market topped is not indicative that the bull market structure off the March 2020 low has been completed. But, it will likely take us several more weeks/months before the market makes it clear how we will be setting up to strike new all-time highs.

In the near term, 3620-60SPX is support in the market per my calculations. A break-down below that level will point us to the 3450/3500SPX region, from which a major bottom should develop. But, for now, as long as we hold the 3620SPX support, I am looking for a rally to develop over the coming weeks to take us north of 4200SPX. But, I will warn you that such a rally will be quite volatile, as we have no "impulsive" structure which has clearly developed off the recent low.

Metals

I have not discussed metals in a very long time since there was nothing that I was seeing that would provide a high probability trade, especially in my two favorite trading vehicles - silver and GDX. But, as I write this article, I will note that I am seeing a bottoming structure develop which, when completed, has the potential to begin a very strong rally in the complex which can take us well into the 2023 time frame, and potentially beyond.

TLT

With the market providing us with the rally I had wanted to see off the last support region I provided to you, the question we are facing is if a long-term bottom has finally been struck in the TLT. As it stands right now, until the market is able to strongly exceed the 121/122 resistance region, I see strong potential for one more lower low with an ideal target in the 105 region, but depending upon the structure of the decline, it can easily see an extension as deep as the 100 region.

Ultimately, for those that are looking at the TLT from a bigger picture, I am viewing this 100-109 region as a long-term support, from which we should be able to develop a long-term rally back over 150 over the coming year or two. And, a strong break-out through the 122 resistance region will be an initial indication that the rally to 150+ has begun in earnest.

Housekeeping Matters

If you would like notifications as to when my new articles are published, please hit the button at the bottom of the page to "Follow" me.

Also, I am going to be quite busy with travel during the summer and will not be able to post public articles regularly. Moreover, when I do post, I may not leave the comments section open if I am unable to monitor it and respond to comments.

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This article was written by

Avi Gilburt profile picture
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The #1 Service For Market and Metals Direction!
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net, a live trading room and member forum focusing on Elliott Wave market analysis with over 6000 members and almost 1000 money manager clients. Avi emphasizes a comprehensive reading of charts and wave counts that is free of personal bias or predisposition.

Avi is an accountant and a lawyer by training. His education background includes his graduating college with dual accounting and economics majors, and he then passed all four parts of the CPA exam at once right after he graduated college. He then earned his Juris Doctorate in an advanced two and a half year program at the St. John’s School of Law in New York, where he graduated cumlaude, and in the top 5% of his class. He then went onto the NYU School of Law for his masters of law in taxation (LL.M.).

Before retiring from his legal career, Avi was a partner and National Director at a major national firm. During his legal career, he spearheaded a number of acquisition transactions worth hundreds of millions to billions of dollars in value. So, clearly, Mr. Gilburt has a detailed understanding how businesses work and are valued.

Yet, when it came to learning how to accurately analyze the financial markets, Avi had to unlearn everything he learned in economics in order to maintain on the correct side of the market the great majority of the time. In fact, once he came to the realization that economics and geopolitics fail to assist in understanding how the market works, it allowed him to view financial markets from a more accurate perspective.

For those interested in how Avi went from a successful lawyer and accountant to become the founder of Elliottwavetrader.net, his detailed story is linked here.
Since Avi began providing his analysis to the public, he has made some spectacular market calls which has earned him the reputation of being one of the best technical analysts in the world.

As an example of some of his most notable astounding market calls, in July of 2011, he called for the USD to begin a multi-year rally from the 74 region to an ideal target of 103.53. In January of 2017, the DXY struck 103.82 and began a pullback expected by Avi.

As another example of one of his astounding calls, Avi called the top in the gold market during its parabolic phase in 2011, with an ideal target of $1,915. As we all know, gold hit a high of $1,921, and pulled back for over 4 years since that time. The night that gold hit its lows in December of 2015, Avi was telling his subscribers that he was on the phone with his broker buying a large order of physical gold, while he had been accumulating individual miner stocks that month, and had just opened the EWT Miners Portfolio to begin buying individual miners stocks due to his expectation of an impending low in the complex.

One of his most shocking calls in the stock market was his call in 2015 for the S&P500 to rally from the 1800SPX region to the 2600SPX region, whereas it would coincide with a “global melt-up” in many other assets. Moreover, he was banging on the table in November of 2016 that we were about to enter the most powerful phase of the rally to 2600SPX, and he strongly noted that it did not matter who won the 2016 election in the US, despite many believing that the market would “crash” if Trump would win the election. This was indeed a testament to the accuracy of the Fibonacci Pinball method that Avi developed.


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Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of GDX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: I am long physical metals and various mining stocks.

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