Tesla Q2: Don't Bet On Elon Musk Overdelivering

Jul. 14, 2022 2:53 AM ETTesla, Inc. (TSLA)BYDDF, BYDDY26 Comments


  • Tesla will report its Q2 card on July 20. The Street has lowered its bar, given the recent headwinds. The market has also de-rated TSLA stock.
  • We posit that the market is unlikely to re-rate TSLA materially unless Elon Musk can guide for an FY22 delivery well above its previous 1.5M guidance.
  • At more than 56x P/E, TSLA looks overvalued as the market parses its valuation with much lower growth estimates. TSLA could also be moving into a medium-term downtrend.
  • We reiterate our Hold rating heading into its Q2 card. Investors should avoid buying the dips, as TSLA is likely to fall further.
  • I do much more than just articles at Ultimate Growth Investing: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more. Learn More »

Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory

Xiaolu Chu


Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk heads into his company's highly anticipated Q2 report card with the headlines that he probably didn't envisage at the start of 2022. Notwithstanding, dealing with several tough challenges is not insurmountable to

TSLA EPS trend


Tesla adjusted gross margins % and adjusted EBIT margins % consensus estimates

Tesla adjusted gross margins % and adjusted EBIT margins % consensus estimates (S&P Cap IQ)

Tesla revenue change % consensus estimates

Tesla revenue change % consensus estimates (S&P Cap IQ)

TSLA valuation metrics

TSLA valuation metrics (TIKR)

TSLA FCF change % consensus estimates

TSLA FCF change % consensus estimates (S&P Cap IQ)

TSLA price chart

TSLA price chart (TradingView)

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