Nvidia And Micron Face Toilet Paper Hoarding Moment

Jul. 15, 2022 3:57 AM ETMicron Technology, Inc. (MU), NVDA116 Comments


  • The chip business is notoriously cyclical, and you will see leading stocks such as Nvidia and Micron are archetype examples.
  • To paraphrase Ben Graham, perfectly timing the cycle is a practical and emotional impossibility.
  • Although having an overall sense of which stage we are in the cycle is not only possible but also sufficient to guide sound investment decisions already.
  • The chip shortage has turned into a glut. The historical chip cycles lasted about 3.5 to 4 years, and I foresee the current downturn stage to last into late 2022 or early 2023.
  • However, valuation always reacts more hastily and seems already raced to the bottom ahead of fundamentals.
  • Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Envision Early Retirement. Learn More »

The computer circuit board and fast-moving cars. A hand holding a CPU chipset.

Jae Young Ju

The investment thesis

The chip business is notoriously cyclical, more so than the overall economy at least. And by this time, it is kind of public information that the last chip cycle has already passed its peak. You can see that


Seeking Alpha

chip supply and demand

Source: Techinsights Inc and Reuters


Seeking Alpha


Seeking Alpha


Seeking Alpha


Seeking Alpha



If you like this analysis, check out Envision Early Retirement to see our other ideas and real portfolios. 

  • Receive actionable and unambiguous ideas across multiple assets.
  • Access our real-money portfolios, trade alerts, and transparent performance reporting.
  • Use our proprietary allocation strategies to isolate and control risks.

We have helped our members not only to beat S&P 500 but also avoid heavy drawdowns despite the extreme volatilities in BOTH the equity AND bond market.

Join for a 100% Risk-Free trial and see if our proven method can help you too.

This article was written by

Envision Research profile picture
Proven solutions for both high income & high growth with isolated risks

** Disclosure: I am associated with Sensor Unlimited.

** Master of Science, 2004, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 

Department of Management Science and Engineering, with concentration in quantitative investment 

** PhD,  2006, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 

Department of Mechanical Engineering, with concentration in  advanced and renewable energy solutions

** 15 years of investment management experiences 

Since 2006, have been actively analyzing stocks and the overall market, managing various portfolios and accounts and providing investment counseling to many relatives and friends.

** Diverse background and holistic approach 

Combined with Sensor Unlimited, we provide more than 3 decades of hands-on experience in high-tech R&D and consulting, housing market, credit market, and actual portfolio management. We monitor several asset classes for tactical opportunities. Examples include less-covered stocks ideas (such as our past holdings like CRUS and FL), the credit and REIT market, short-term and long-term bond trade opportunities, and gold-silver trade opportunities. 

I also take a holistic view and watch out on aspects (both dangers and opportunities) often neglected – such as tax considerations (always a large chunk of return), fitness with the rest of holdings (no holding is good or bad until it is examined under the context of what we already hold), and allocation across asset classes.

Above all, like many SA readers and writers, I am a curious investor – I look forward to constantly learn, re-learn, and de-learn with this wonderful community.

Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of MU either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Recommended For You

Comments (116)

To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.
Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.
If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.