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soral a raison profile picture
I have not seen any indication that Greta has approved the increase in coal use. She must have been deemed no longer useful, at least temporarily. I wonder if it will be a sell signal when they take her out of hibernation.
Massive outperformance here….flash in the pan or the start of something good? How long before an activist investor shows up?
Quickbuck01 profile picture
BTU and ARCH having a very nice rally
@renzovelasco Don't forget AMR as well!
Quickbuck01 profile picture
@jzwmnb01 price of coal spiking
@renzovelasco I believe on BTU's last CC, that the CFO stated they had 8-9 million tons of seaborne coal not contracted, going at the current spot price rate.
1sanderj profile picture
well written
You can track the actual movement of coal from the powder river basin through Nebraska via this Kearney, NE YouTube live cam. Note there are two cameras - both East(with chat) and west(with track signal lights).


Note, there are lots of things to see and lots of cams. This is merely an example.


Anecdotal Results, paraphrased, from iPhone:

I was not surprised that CSX shipped lots of coal. I love their “coke express” found via the Deshler Ohio and Ashland, VA cameras.

Teck resources can be found in via Revelstoke camera.

See the east coast lines for more traffic to ports. Lookup train map and dry bulk coal terminals. Tldr - Baltimore, Mobile AL, Corpus Christi, Vancouver, B.C.

Also see the Missouri, Mississippi and Ohio river valley in general for a north to south route of trade.

Note Kansas City Southern and Canadian National are almost the same company, they will be soon, they share track though atm - although “they all seem to share track” — except Union Pacific never shares track with CSX - unless it’s the week before June 30, in which case CSX kicked as* cross country!

As of early July/VERY late June, Union Pacific is running everyday, multiple times of day.
They are using their own cars. They are working with Peabody, Union style - late but not able to be fired. ;). Be careful, there are a couple private’s in the PRB but the rail cars 🚗 look different, engines not ONLY Union Pacific. If in doubt, ask the chat rooms on YouTube. They’re lovely people who love trains.

Last observation:

I noticed this, offhand. It seemed reasonable. It also worked.

Example of using trains to track profits 2: Amazon clearly seemed like it was going to sell more product of relevance as it was paying to take track from Walmart, FedEx and UPS. The only trucking company seen as often on a rail car as a Prime container was JB Hunt; small shout out to Knight Trucking too.

Summary - predicting coal shipments can be done via plain old rail cam.

And more too.

Cars. Deere tractors. Liquified Energy. Solid Energy. Priority shipping. Or not. Who’s paying a premium. Who’s not.

Where’s the economy really at? In motion it’s in the railroads and shipping. One we can see, the other we can somewhat infer. (What’s not on the rail, but in the numbers must be trucked/shipped only, trucking is more expensive and slower, in theory if rail clear).

Give it a try. https://youtu.be/e4ruBo4NWK0.

Go to timestamp 18:35. (For today at least, not a perfect schedule but more common as dusk and overnight approaches). Wait about 7 minutes. 2nd coal train. Wow, so many cars. Wow, Peabody. Wow, Union Pacific. Wow so much energy. I can now haz no recession???!!! Such cheap easily transportable energy!


@Mort Kire So where is this recession that Kohl's started the talk about when they posted that they had too many pairs of unsold shoes? (may not have been Kohls and may not have been shoes but one retailer had a blip about inventory and the entire market immediately incurred diarrhea).
@jzwmnb01 in a container from before the pandemic?
Guys, chill down with the lack of execution...$BTU generated 40% of its market cap in two quarters (including cash collateral released in H2) and the next two will be much better, including current hedges....
At this price, you are buying BTU at 100%+ NTM FCF yield (unless you think (1) thermal coal prices will drop dramatically and (2) that the company did not negotiate contract at these prices).
If you have better opportunities elsewhere, fair enough, but I will be patient at this price.
Sam DNA profile picture
The last time BTU was this low was Mar 1.
On April 15 they hit $33. [albeit briefly]
BTU is much better off today than on April 15.
Just sayin'
WYCO Researcher profile picture
@Sam DNA wrong- it was $17 and some change a few weeks ago when there was massive flooding in Australia and reports that it was going to rain heavily the coming weekend-it did not rain much that weekend-so it shot back up.
Sam DNA profile picture
@WYCO Researcher Oops I guess I meant to say closed this low.
Sam DNA profile picture
It would have been nice for hqtrs to report on what is happening
with the Green Energy programs they introduced a year ago?
In the meantime it would be nice if our govt would stop trying
to do so much to dismantle and crush America's great energy
industries that were created over the centuries.
Pricing peak is long gone when Peabody is free of debt. ARCH delivers maximum value for investors, while Peabody keeps repaying debt endlessly. Its not a good play for investors.
buddhaCanooda profile picture
@Gauntlet888 $BTU indicated on their call that net cash > debt now. They will not be repaying debt endlessly - what do you base that on?
@Gauntlet888 Tend to agree with you. I have closed my position in $BTU and put proceeds in to $ARCH. Better management.
Sam DNA profile picture
@ukinus1950 It is hard to argue with that argument. Results are what count.. and
BTU has been kinda short of pathetic. Rain and railroads? Maybe not their fault.
But their coal price hedging is a disaster!!!
The requirement to pay down debt is a very good thing, to keep them out of future potential hardship. That is a reward for investors.
PapaWhisky profile picture
At the end of the day, execution is everything.
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