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A Microcosm Of A Soft Landing

Aug. 02, 2022 9:28 AM ET7 Comments


  • The bears are convinced we just had a bear-market bounce, but I think they need a recession to be right.
  • I contend yesterday's ISM manufacturing survey looks like the microcosm of a soft landing.
  • The dollar is starting to weaken, which would be a tailwind for corporate profits when one is needed most.
  • Expect a healthy pullback in the major market indexes, as we consolidate last month's gains.
  • This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Portfolio Architect. Learn More »
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Yesterday was relatively uneventful in the markets, which I would call a win given the huge gains from last week. Crude oil fell nearly 5% to $93.89 per barrel, which also resulted in the world’s most important commodity breaking below a key long-term moving average, suggesting

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This article was written by

Lawrence Fuller profile picture

Lawrence Fuller has been managing portfolios for individual investors for 30 years, starting his career at Merrill Lynch in 1993 and working in the same capacity with several other Wall Street firms before realizing his long-term goal of complete independence when he founded Fuller Asset Management.

He is the leader of the investing group Learn more.

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Lawrence Fuller is the Managing Director of Fuller Asset Management, a Registered Investment Adviser. This post is for informational purposes only. There are risks involved with investing including loss of principal. Lawrence Fuller makes no explicit or implicit guarantee with respect to performance or the outcome of any investment or projections made by him or Fuller Asset Management. There is no guarantee that the goals of the strategies discussed by will be met. Information or opinions expressed may change without notice, and should not be considered recommendations to buy or sell any particular security.

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Comments (7)

RE: Strong Dollar - 40 % of S &P revenues come from abroad, but what % of inputs are purchased abroad? How do they net out?
Lawrence Fuller profile picture
@Pwiener No stats on that, and it is always changing.
terryongarland profile picture
Looks like stagflation to me. We can muddle along with slowing growth, and sticky prices for a bit..but it takes it’s toll. Further..the world is in the same mess to varying degrees. Third world countries are being crushed.
Soft landing means what?
Regardless the dye is already cast. We all hope for better, but words don’t cut it.
I think Friday's job report and next Wed's CPI report should dictate the tone of the market in August. CME shows that the market isn't ruling out 75bp FED hike in September.
Lawrence Fuller profile picture
@Alex_r_WallStreetBeats Very very unlikely in my opinion, they will go with 50
@Lawrence Fuller I think the 60/40 probability at CME is a bit aggressive for 75bp myself. But we'll see what the data shows us in the next 8 days.
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