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NIO Shares Should Jump Over The Next 12 Months

Aug. 02, 2022 12:08 PM ETNIO Inc. (NIO)LI, XPEV8 Comments
Gary Bourgeault profile picture
Gary Bourgeault


  • NIO is positioned very well for delivery surge once supply chain issues are resolved.
  • Even with one hand tied behind its back, year-over-year deliveries continue to grow.
  • Many investors don't take into account the fact the company strategically reduced production in order to retrofit and/or add new production capacity - this was done not too long before.
  • The timing of COVID-related shutdowns disproportionately hit NIO because of the reduction of its competitive advantage and momentum.
  • Barring another significant shutdown, NIO should come roaring back in the second half of 2022, and really take off in 2023.

Electric car plugged in outside house


Of all the China-based EV producers, NIO (NYSE:NIO) was it the hardest because of the timing of the shutdowns related to COVID, just as it was boosting production as a result of retrofitting some facilities while adding more new

This article was written by

Gary Bourgeault profile picture
I am a former investment advisor and owner of several businesses. These days I invest only for myself while continuing to write on a variety of financial and economic topics.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NIO either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Comments (8)

What happens to my US ADR shares if NIO is delighted in US?
@Noleinvest you should be delighted ; there, answered your own question
ignoramia profile picture
@Noleinvest ONLY Government owned enterprises will be delisted as per Chinese and American regulators. Chinese will not give up Ownership data and other national secrets to a foreign power.

NIO has already listed in HongKong and other exchanges and US regulators and NIO are very close to solving the problem.

Biden and Xi are likely to meet in Indonesia in November as per AP report. They will work out some cooperation agreements on economic and trade issues, even if the geopolitical issues linger.

After Biden and Xi meeting, NIO is likely to get a tail wind and jump in stock price, in my judgment.

I am Long on NIO for the next 3-5 years. Happy investing!
zorbs99 profile picture
Gary I am a LT holder of NIO and like the potential in NIO for the next decade, and so does Ballie Gifford, Ray Dalio, Soros, Black rock and I can go on. My biggest concern is delisting! There has been no resolution so far and time is running out. Some articles now saying congress is looking to push up the date to 3/23, 6 months away. I hardly doubt that China gives a nod to allow potential delisted companies to open the books to the USA. With SEC firm on Sarbanes Oxley act there is no bending here and if NIO and others get suspended from trading on NYSE it will not end well. Trading on HK or Shanghai doesnt cut it for retail investors or many institutions as well. How does this play out?
@zorbs99 It is true, it is a big problem, as well as the political environment with Pelosi's visit and not forgetting Russia in Ukraine, which everyone knows is on Russia's side with the rubber band. However, I believe that the share price already contemplates these serious times. The company will make a quantitative leap in two more months, growing production by 50% sequentially and launching two new line cars in its two segments, which They will be massive for price. quality. .... I think that unfortunately in the invest you have to play with this there are few things that are very safe today
You were an investment advisor? It is just your guesses and expectations. There is no meat to what you say! I can say NIO will drop in value as supply chain recovers and competition heats up with every EV makers boosting production. Even Vietnam company is setting up EV production in the US. The era of loss making high growth companies is gone. Unless NIO can boost margin in addition to sales why should I buy their shares. There are too many car companies tradional as well as new players. The honeymoon for NIO was back in 2020. The current stock price is a fair assessment of the company potential. If you disagree I like to see the figures and drill down details. Not just air!
@cd7707 it is a growing company, the figures that may matter to you, do not exist… because it loses money month after month… now all companies start like this… look at tesla now and look back 4 years ago - 5-6-7 years. ..regarding what is full of ev companies, that is correct and every year there will be many more, since in 2035 there will be no internal combustion vehicles... setting up an ev company is very difficult new technology, full of patents and innovations, in that for the design and construction of each component you need laboratories with more than 500 engineers working every day, there are ways to make it easier and cheaper... yes, but you know that the best ones will last and NIO as tesla will be at the head… it helped a lot that they started before many, but above all because their technology is first class
the redundant point you adhere to is correct... jak-nio increased its capacity by 50%, after as you say several expansions .15-18k per month, which I expected to see in July... now and ad portas of the deliveries of two new models there is a gap in sales and models, everyone wants the new ones...as you said it is an excellent long-term problem...neo park will start delivering in september, its general manager mentioned that after 3 months its production It would be 10k per month and rising month by month, look at the "problem" is that this company is very ambitious, it is going to launch its second line of cheaper cars, sub-brand in the 2 semester of 2024, also in that period it will launch a battery factory, very important to be able to manage margins, also a phone in 2023 and now he wants to launch a new sub-brand 3, with cheaper cars between 14,800 and 29,608... he will surely be in the world of mini ev, his ceo visited the The KiWi EV factory, whose sales were deliveries of 30k per month th , the best seller in this segment in China... we are talking about projects to take over the entire market, since I have followed this company from the beginning I have loved its business strategy, being able to remove the stigma of being made in China is vital and for to be a leader in this market you also have to be an object of desire, like the apple... and today it is one of the 3 best ev in the world, at very high prices, but with the latest and best technology... so entering Europe is to generate an image above all... I think we agree that at least during the first 10 years the Chinese market can support this growth... the path of this company is very clear and very ambitious... .generate the best product that is coveted by many and taking over the market, not bad
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