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Is This A Recession Or Not? Most Of The Details Say 'Not Yet!'

Louis Navellier profile picture
Louis Navellier


  • Last Thursday, the Commerce Department announced its preliminary estimate for second-quarter GDP growth at an annualized decline of -0.9%, which marks two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
  • The Commerce Department announced on Wednesday that durable goods orders increased a healthy 1.9% in June, due largely to a 5.1% surge in transportation orders from the automotive industry.
  • Food prices could also decline soon since exports could resume soon from Ukrainian Black Sea ports due to a deal between Russia and Ukraine.

Abstract multi colored financial spreadsheet table with the word recession in green color, line graph and lens flare overlay


Last week, I wrote, “If this is a recession, it’s the strangest one I’ve seen,” but that doesn’t mean I want to change the definition of a recession. I just want to see the whole economy, not just one statistic.

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Louis Navellier profile picture
Navellier & Associates was founded by Louis Navellier in 1987 and since then has guided thousands of investors by applying our disciplined, quantitative investment process to a broad range of equity products. Every day, investors hire Navellier to manage their assets in a private account, mutual fund, or defensive portfolio. For over 25 years, we’ve been zeroing in on opportunities for long-term growth. We employ a veteran team of investment and client service professionals who deliver exceptional, personal service and industry-leading information to our clients. _________________________________ Important Disclosures that Accompany Navellier & Associates Articles: *Navellier may hold this security in one or more investment strategies offered to its clients. None of the stock information, data, and company information presented herein constitutes a recommendation by Navellier or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities. Any specific securities identified and described do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for advisory clients. The reader should not assume that investments in the securities identified and discussed were or will be profitable. Information presented is general information that does not take into account your individual circumstances, financial situation, or needs, nor does it present a personalized recommendation to you. Individual stocks presented may not be suitable for you. Investment in securities involves significant risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. One cannot invest directly in an index. Results presented include the reinvestment of all dividends and other earnings. Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources Navellier believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and the information may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute Navellier's judgment as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments and should not be relied upon as the sole factor in an investment making decision. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned in this research must take into account existing public information on such security or any registered prospectus. Past performance is no indication of future results. FEDERAL TAX ADVICE DISCLAIMER: As required by U.S. Treasury Regulations, you are informed that, to the extent this presentation includes any federal tax advice, the presentation is not intended or written by Navellier to be used, and cannot be used, for the purpose of avoiding federal tax penalties. Navellier does not advise on any income tax requirements or issues. Use of any information presented by Navellier is for general information only and does not represent tax advice either express or implied. You are encouraged to seek professional tax advice for income tax questions and assistance.

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Comments (10)

O. Young Kwon profile picture
A very rare Superb Market Post, (by turning all stones in the market pond, very broadly, diligently, and flawlessly), with a fair and valid Conclusion:

“In the end, stock markets like to “react” first and “think” later (if at all). Fortunately, four times a year the stock market must think and evaluate during every quarterly announcement season. This time around, our stocks are clearly an oasis as emerging market leaders. I expect a big cyclical market rally to commence no later than early October, but the party has already started for many of our stocks, so enjoy the ride!” (From text)

I applaud your good services to all investors: Greatly appreciate it.
Joe B says no recession so it must be true! They are also presently changing the definition of inflation to make it go away! I can't wait!
@Rick Both Negative growth for 2 quarters, anyone not getting at least a 9% raise got poorer. Joe B. playing Groucho Marx now.

Who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?
Groucho Marx
How many other times have we had two negative quarters and it wasn't a recession? I don't know the answer. If it is " a number of times", ok I feel better. But given how relentlessly politicized everything is these days, it is hard to believe we would be hearing the same excuses if Trump were president. I get the rationalizations about employment, etc but there are always isolated data points that do not confirm. And I also understand the official designation depends on a group of economists agreeing, which does nothing to alleviate concern about politicization.
There is a term for a recession where the underlying stats are still pretty good, "mild recession" or perhaps even "very mild recession"
No need to redefine anything.
ths78 profile picture
Easy answer…it is a recession

Things look a little different when you print trillions and trillions of funny bucks… despite all the cash in circulation of our consumption economy, things are hitting the brakes…”that ain’t good”
@ths78 Yeah, one thing we do need though is more articles on SA explaining how the recession we are in isn't real.
Current economic conditions are a result of massive money printing during the pandemic. Stocks should retest the June lows by the end of September. Just my $0.02
@Rob Parmenter Don't forget the new "Inflation Reduction Act" LOL!
@Rob Parmenter MMT doesn't work. Who'd of thunk it?
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