EUR/USD: Lowering The Forecast Profile

Aug. 04, 2022 8:00 AM ETEROTF, ULE, EUO, FXE


  • We have been bearish on EUR/USD this year, but not bearish enough.
  • The war in Ukraine and what it has done to the eurozone’s terms of trade have damaged the euro’s equilibrium fair value.
  • We are cutting our EUR/USD forecast by roughly 4-5% across our 2022-24 profile curve.

Eurusd forex market trading symbols on dollar money and forex chart

angkhan/iStock via Getty Images

By Chris Turner, Global Head of Markets and Regional Head of Research for UK & CEE; & Francesco Pesole, FX Strategist

Consensus has been too bullish

We have been pretty bearish on EUR/USD for most of

Consensus struggles to keep pace with EUR/USD drop

ING, Consensus Economics

High energy prices

ING, Macrobond




Reuters, ING



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