Weekly Indicators: Improvement In Short-Term Forecast Is A Gas

Aug. 13, 2022 9:00 AM ETSPY, IVV, VOO, VTI, DIA, IWM, QQQ5 Comments
New Deal Democrat profile picture
New Deal Democrat
3.68K Followers

Summary

  • High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy.
  • The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators.
  • While the overall outlook remains negative, slightly lower interest rates, and dramatically lower gas prices have improved the short-term forecast somewhat.

Bag with oil barrel and up down arrows. Energy crisis. Unstable power-generating and fuel prices. Chemical and transport industries. Speculation on stock exchange. Imbalance global supply and demand.

Andrii Yalanskyi

Purpose

I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data

This article was written by

New Deal Democrat profile picture
3.68K Followers
New Deal democrat As a professional who started an individual investor for almost 30 yeas ago, I quickly focused on economic cycles and the order in which they typically proceed. I have been writing about the economy for nearly 15 of those years, developing several alternate systems that include mid-cycle, long leading, short leading, coincident, lagging and long lagging indicators. I also focus particularly on their effects on average working and middle class Americans.

Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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