MDA Breakout Stocks Week 34 - August 2022: Short-Term Picks To Give You An Edge

Aug. 21, 2022 8:24 AM ETAAPL, AMGN, AXP, BERZ, BYND, CELH, CLFD, CRM, CVX, ENPH, FAZE, FAZEW, GOOG, GOOGL, GTHX, HON, IPI, K, MCD, MRK, MSFT, NOG, PWP, PWPPW, RES, SOXL, SPY, TA, TANNI, TANNL, TANNZ, TDW, TRIL, UNH, VRDN2 Comments

Summary

  • Two new Breakout Stocks for Week 34 with better than 10% short-term upside potential and a Dow 30 Pick. Average cumulative returns now down to +105.5% YTD.
  • This week one pick beat 10% gains in less than week with MRAM +34.4% and top gains in TGTX +9.3%. 2nd week in a row with a breakout above 34%.
  • The streak of weekly picks gaining over 10% in less than a week of trading days increased to 221 out of 273 trading weeks (80.9%) not counting multiple gainers.
  • All the V&M Portfolios are beating the S&P 500 YTD. New July midyear picks are also up Piotroski-Graham +11.8%, Neg Forensic +33.8%, YTD Bounce/Lag +32.2%.
  • The MDA breakout picks continue to beat the S&P 500 into 6 consecutive years delivering a CAGR +31.8% and 718.1% compounding returns through 2022. In 2021 returns were +70.5%.
  • Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Value & Momentum Breakouts get exclusive access to our model portfolio. Learn More »

Remote Working and Enjoying Bleisure Time at Lake Faak in Austria

Rocky89

Introduction

The Weekly Breakout Forecast continues my doctoral research analysis on MDA breakout selections over more than 7 years. This subset of the different portfolios I regularly analyze has now exceeded 260 weeks of public selections as part of this ongoing live forward-testing research. The frequency of 10%+ returns in a week is averaging over 4x the broad market averages in the past 5+ years.

In 2017, the sample size began with 12 stocks, then 8 stocks in 2018, and at members' request since 2020, I now generate only 4 selections each week. In addition 2 Dow 30 picks are provided, as well as a new active ETF portfolio that competes against a signal ETF model. Monthly Growth & Dividend MDA breakout stocks continue to beat the market each year as well. I offer 11 top models of short and long term value and momentum portfolios that have beaten the S&P 500 since my trading S&P 500 since my trading studies were made public.

Market Outlook Signals

The Momentum Gauges®, economic events, and weekly market outlook are now separated into a new weekly outlook article here which also includes my new weekly Technical Market update videos:

Momentum Gauge® stoplight signals

All the Momentum Gauges are weakening ahead of Week 34. The Daily and Weekly Market Gauges as well as the S&P 500 gauges are in the longest positive stretch for 2022 and showing signs of topping. More details in the outlook article above.

Momentum Gauge stoplight signals

VMBreakouts.com

Current Returns

In a quick study of the MDA breakout selections YTD there are 75 picks in 33 weeks beating the S&P 500. 45 picks beating the S&P 500 by over 10%+ in double digits. Leading MDA gainers include (CLFD) +99.4%, (TA) +56.1%, (VRDN) +83.1%, (TDW) +79.6, (RES) +68.6% of the 75 picks beating the major indices YTD.

MDA Breakout returns YTD without signal

VMBreakouts.com

Additional background, measurements, and high frequency breakout records on the Weekly MDA Breakout model is here: Value And Momentum MDA Breakouts +70.5% In 52 Weeks: Final 2021 Year End Report Card

Momentum Gauge® trading signal: Positive conditions ahead of Week 34

2022 First-half weekly return results

First half returns with all weekly returns on the V&M Dashboard

MDA weekly Returns 1st half 2022

VMBreakouts.com

Red weekly color indicates negative Market Momentum Gauge signals. MDA breakout selections outperform when the market signal is positive and daily negative values are below 40 level.

Historical Performance Measurements

Historical MDA Breakout minimal buy/hold returns are at +70.5% YTD when trading only in the positive weeks consistent with the positive Momentum Gauges® signals. Remarkably, the frequency streak of 10% gainers within a 4- or 5-day trading week continues at highly statistically significant levels above 80% not counting frequent multiple 10%+ gainers in a single week.

MDA annual returns

VMBreakouts.com

Longer term many of these selections join the V&M Multibagger list now at 129 weekly picks with over 100%+ gains, 62 picks over 200%+, 21 picks over 500%+ and 14 picks with over 1000%+ gains since January 2019 such as:

  • Celsius Holdings (CELH) +1,991.1%
  • Enphase Energy (ENPH) +1,951.3%
  • Intrepid Potash (IPI) +1,166.5%
  • Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) +1062.2%
  • Trillium Therapeutics (TRIL) +1008.7%

More than 200 stocks have gained over 10% in a 5-day trading week since this MDA testing began in 2017. A frequency comparison chart is at the end of this article. Readers are cautioned that these are highly volatile stocks that may not be appropriate for achieving your long term investment goals: How to Achieve Optimal Asset Allocation

The Week 34 - 2022 Breakout Stocks for next week are:

The picks for next week consist of 1 Financial, 1 Communications, 1 Healthcare, and 1 Energy sector stocks. These stocks are released to members in advance every Friday morning near the open for the best gains. Prior selections may be doing well, but for research purposes I deliberately do not duplicate selections from the prior week. These selections are based on MDA characteristics from my research, including strong money flows, positive sentiment, and strong fundamentals -- but readers are cautioned to follow the Momentum Gauges® for the best results.

  1. FaZe Holdings (FAZE) - Communication Services / Internet Content
  2. Perella Weinberg Partners (PWP) - Financial / Capital Markets

FaZe Holdings - Communication Services / Internet Content

FAZE chart

FinViz.com

Price Target: $22.00/share (See my FAQ #20 on price targets)

Aug-15-22 04:16PM FaZe Holdings Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2022 Financial Results PR Newswire
Aug-09-22 08:30AM FaZe Clan Sets Second Quarter 2022 Business Update Webcast for Monday, August 15, 2022, at 2:00 p.m. PT PR Newswire
Jul-28-22 09:00AM FAZE CLAN AND THE NFL BRING THE '1ON1' SERIES WITH FAZE DEESTROYING TO MULTIPLE CITIES DURING PRESEASON PR Newswire
Jul-26-22 09:20AM FaZe Clan Launches FaZe Subs Exclusively Available on DoorDash GlobeNewswire

(Source: Company Resources)

FaZe Holdings Inc. operates lifestyle and media platform in gaming and youth culture. The company produces content, designs merchandise and consumer products, and creates advertising and sponsorship programs for brands reaching approximately 500 million fans across social platforms. It delivers various entertainment spanning video blogs, lifestyle and branded content, gaming highlights, and live streams of competitive gaming tournaments

Stock Rover report FAZE

StockRover.com

Perella Weinberg Partners - Financial / Capital Markets

PWP chart

FinViz.com

Price Target: $10.00/share (See my FAQ #20 on price targets)

Aug-19-22 08:31AM Perella Weinberg Partners Announces Expiration and Results of Exchange Offer and Consent Solicitation Relating to its Warrants GlobeNewswire
Aug-15-22 05:06PM Perella Weinberg Partners Announces Effectiveness of Registration Statement for Its Exchange Offer and Consent Solicitation Relating to Its Warrants GlobeNewswire
Aug-07-22 08:23AM Perella Weinberg Partners (NASDAQ:PWP) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of $0.07 Simply Wall St.
Aug-04-22 07:00AM Perella Weinberg Partners Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results GlobeNewswire
Jul-22-22 08:08AM Perella Weinberg Partners Announces Commencement of Exchange Offer and Consent Solicitation Relating to Warrants GlobeNewswire

(Source: Company Resources)

Perella Weinberg Partners, an independent investment banking company, provides strategic and financial advice services in the United States and internationally. The company offers advice services related to mission-critical strategic and financial decisions, mergers and acquisition execution, shareholder and defense advisory, capital raising, structure and restructuring, capital markets advisory, energy underwriting, and equity research.

StockRover report PWP

StockRover.com

Top Dow 30 Stocks to Watch for Week 34

First, be sure to follow the Momentum Gauges® when applying the same MDA breakout model parameters to only 30 stocks on the Dow Index. Conditions have delivered the worst first half to the stock market since 1970. Second, these selections are made without regard to market cap or the below-average volatility typical of mega-cap stocks that may produce good results relative to other Dow 30 stocks.

The most recent picks of weekly Dow selections in pairs for the last 5 weeks:

Symbol Company Current % return from selection Week
(MCD) McDonald's Corporation +2.25%
(MRK) Merck & Co. +2.76%
(CRM) Salesforce -3.37%
(MSFT) Microsoft Corporation +1.15%
(AAPL) Apple, Inc. +7.01%
(CVX) Chevron Corporation -0.13%
(AMGN) Amgen, Inc. +2.00%
(HON) Honeywell International +11.07%
(UNH) UnitedHealth Group +5.49% Reported Q2 - July 15th
(AXP) American Express +15.72% Reported Q2 - July 22nd

If you are looking for a much broader selection of large cap breakout stocks beyond the weekly stocks, I recommend these long term portfolios. The new mid-year selections were released to members to start July:

Piotroski-Graham enhanced value -

  • July up +11.82%
  • January portfolio beating S&P 500 by +25.27% YTD.

Positive Forensic -

  • July down -0.43%
  • January Positive Forensic beating S&P 500 by +0.44% YTD.

Negative Forensic -

  • July up +33.78%
  • January Negative Forensic beating S&P 500 by +14.14% YTD

Growth & Dividend Mega cap breakouts -

  • August up +5.06%
  • January portfolio beating S&P 500 by +10.07% YTD

These long term selections are significantly outperforming many major Hedge Funds and all the hedge fund averages since inception. Consider the actively managed ARK Innovation fund down -52.8% YTD, Tiger Global Management -52% YTD, RTW Investment Group -34% YTD.

The Dow pick for next week is:

Merck & Co (MRK)

Merck continues for a second week as a breakout pick in strong breakout conditions following earnings results July 28th moving higher in the positive channel. Institutions are net buyers and insiders are net selling as sentiment improves sharply with high net MFI inflows. Breakout conditions to prior highs remains strong and analysts have consensus target around $100/share with recent upgrades to $102/share.

Finviz Chart MRK

FinViz.com

Background on Momentum Breakout Stocks

As I have documented before from my research over the years, these MDA breakout picks were designed as high frequency gainers.

These documented high frequency gains in less than a week continue into 2020 at rates more than four times higher than the average stock market returns against comparable stocks with a minimum $2/share and $100 million market cap. The enhanced gains from further MDA research in 2020 are both larger and more frequent than in previous years in every category. ~ The 2020 MDA Breakout Report Card

The frequency percentages remain very similar to returns documented here on Seeking Alpha since 2017 and at rates that greatly exceed the gains of market returns by 2x and as much as 5x in the case of 5% gains.

Frequency Breakout charts for MDA picks

VMBreakouts.com

The 2021 and 2020 breakout percentages with 4 stocks selected each week.

MDA frequency breakout charts 2020 / 2021

VMBreakouts.com

MDA selections are restricted to stocks above $2/share, $100M market cap, and greater than 100k avg daily volume. Penny stocks well below these minimum levels have been shown to benefit greatly from the model but introduce much more risk and may be distorted by inflows from readers selecting the same micro-cap stocks.

Conclusion

These stocks continue the live forward-testing of the breakout selection algorithms from my doctoral research with continuous enhancements over prior years. These Weekly Breakout picks consist of the shortest duration picks of seven quantitative models I publish from top financial research that also include one-year buy/hold value stocks. Remember to follow the Momentum Gauges® in your investing decisions for the best results.

All the V&M portfolio models are beating the market indices through the worst 6 month start since 1970. New mid-year value portfolios are up sharply to start the next long term buy/hold period.

Portfolio Returns YTD

VMBreakouts.com

The final 2021 returns for the different portfolio models from January of last year are shown below.

Portfolio returns 2021

VMBreakouts.com

All the very best to you, stay safe and healthy and have a great week of trading!

JD Henning, PhD, MBA, CFE, CAMS



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This article was written by

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Revealing the best financial models targeting double digit success

Welcome! I am a Finance PhD, MBA, investment adviser, fraud examiner and certified anti-money laundering specialist with more than 30 years trading and investing stocks and other securities. I'm the founder of Value & Momentum Breakouts.

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I'm JD Henning, the founder of Value & Momentum Breakouts. I've spent decades studying how to get better returns in the market. I've earned degrees researching markets, and even more importantly, I've spent the time myself as a trader and investor.  I am one of those unusual multi-millionaire, PhD's in finance, former Coast Guard officer with a bunch of certifications ranging from anti-money laundering specialist, investment adviser, to fraud examiner...  who genuinely enjoys helping others do well in the markets.  I'm bringing the fruits of my experience and research to this service.  I am highly accessible to members to answer questions and give guidance.  

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Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of KOLD either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: I continue to follow the Market Momentum Gauge® and Sector Momentum Gauge® signals. I adjust my exposure ahead of weekends and holidays to minimize the risk from these high volatility 3x funds that may not be appropriate investments for your portfolio. Readers are highly encouraged to consider your own optimal asset allocation strategies to diversify risks and enhance returns. I have been mostly in cash this year with many weeks of negative Momentum Gauge signals.

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