As supplement to this article, please note that Dogs of the Dow has published a 2022 list detailing the latest 38 Dividend Kings and 5 Princes. The article, entitled 2022 Dividend Kings List, is online now.
While most of this collection of 43 K&Ps is too pricey to justify their skinny dividends, three of the top-ten, by yield, live up to the ideal of offering annual dividends (from a $1K investment) exceeding their single share prices.
In the current market adjustment, it is now possible for Altria Group Inc (MO), Universal Corp (UVV), and Leggett & Platt Inc (LEG) to stay fair-priced with their annual yield (from $1K invested) meeting or exceeding their single share prices at this time.
As we are over two years and five months removed from the anniversary of the 2020 Ides of March dip, the time to snap up those three lingering top yield Royal dogs is at hand... unless another big bearish drop in price looms ahead. (At which time your strategy would be to add to your position in any of those you then hold.)
Three of the ten top K&Ps by yield were verified as being among the top ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices (they are tinted gray in the chart below). Thus, this yield-based July 22 forecast for K&Ps (as graded by Brokers) was 30% accurate.
Estimated dividend returns from $1,000 invested in each of these highest-yielding stocks and their aggregate one-year analyst median target prices, as reported by YCharts, produced the 2022-23 data points for the projections below. Note: target prices from lone analysts were not used. Ten probable profit-generating trades projected to August 22, 2023 were:
Stanley Black & Decker Inc (SWK) netted $276.82 based on a median target price estimate from 14 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 27% more than the market as a whole.
Emerson Electric Co (EMR) was projected to net $218.54 based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 23 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 41% greater than the market as a whole.
Parker-Hannifin Corp (PH) was projected to net $197.57, based on the median of target price estimates from 16 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 57% more than the market as a whole.
Target Corp (TGT) was projected to net $189.83, based on the median of target price estimates from 28 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 3% more than the market as a whole.
Abbott Laboratories (ABT) was projected to net $181.07, based on a median of target estimates from 19 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 29% less than the market as a whole.
Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW) was projected to net $179.10, based on the median of target price estimates from 26 analysts, plus the estimated annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 25% more than the market as a whole.
Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT) was projected to net $174.03, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 11 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 4% less than the market as a whole.
Altria Group Inc was projected to net $171.11 based on target price estimates from 17 analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate is subject to risk/volatility 39% less than the market as a whole.
PPG Industries Inc (PPG) was projected to net $153.88, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 20 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 17% greater than the market as a whole.
National Fuel Gas Co (NFG) was projected to net $125.97, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 5 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 32% less than the market as a whole.
The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated to be 18.68% on $10K invested as $1K in each of these ten stocks. The average Beta ranking showed these estimates subject to risk/volatility 7% greater than the market as a whole.
Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs", even if they are "Kings" and "Princes."
This scale of broker-estimated upside (or downside) for stock prices provides a measure of market popularity. Note: no broker coverage or single broker coverage produced a zero score on the above scale. These broker estimates can be seen as the emotional component (as opposed to the strictly monetary and objective dividend/price yield-driven report below). As noted above, these scores may also be regarded as contrarian.
Top ten K&Ps selected 8/22/22 by yield represented five of eleven Morningstar sectors. In first place was Altria Group Inc. , the top of four consumer defensive representatives listed. The others placed second, seventh, and tenth, Universal Corp , Kimberly-Clark Corp (KMB) , Coca-Cola Co (KO) .
Thereafter, the lone consumer cyclical representative took the third place, Leggett & Platt Inc . Then the first of two industrials sector representatives placed fourth, 3M Co (MMM). The other industrial placed eighth, Stanley Black & Decker . In fifth place, was the lone real estate representative, Federal Realty Investment Trust .
Then finally, sixth place was claimed by the first of two utilities, Northwest Natural Holding Co (NWN) , and ninth place went to Black Hills Corp (BKH) , to complete these August K&P top-ten, by yield.
To quantify top-yield rankings, analyst median price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield metrics, analyst median price target estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.
Ten top K&Ps were culled by yield for their monthly update. Yield (dividend/price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking.
As noted above, top ten K&Ps selected 8/22/22 showing the highest dividend yields represented five of eleven in the Morningstar sector scheme.
$5,000 invested as $1K in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten Dividend K&Ps kennel by yield were predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 8.5% LESS gain than $5,000 invested as $.5K in all ten. The seventh lowest-priced K&Ps top-yield stock, Stanley Black & Decker Inc, was projected to deliver the best net gain of 27.68%.
The five lowest-priced top-yield Dividend Kings and Princes as of August 22 were: Leggett & Platt Inc; Altria Group Inc; Northwest Natural Holding Co; Universal Corp; Coca-Cola Co, with prices ranging from $39.58 to $64.20.
The five higher-priced top-yield Dividend Kings and Princes for August 22 were: Black Hills Corp; Stanley Black & Decker Inc; Federal Realty Investment Trust; Kimberly-Clark Corp; 3M Co, whose prices ranged from $78.60 to $141.59.
This distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, however, since analysts are historically only 20% to 90% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 15% accurate on the degree of change.
If somehow you missed the suggestion of the three stocks ripe for picking at the start of the article, here is a repeat of the list at the end:
The following 3 (as of 8/22/22) realized the ideal of offering annual dividends from a $1K investment exceeding their single share prices: Altria Group Inc, Universal Corp, and Leggett & Platt Inc.
Since three of the top ten Dividend K&P shares are now priced less than the annual dividends paid out from a $1K investment, the top chart compares those two plus eight at recent prices. Fair pricing (when all ten top dogs conform to the ideal) is displayed in the middle chart. Finally, the dollar and percentage differences between recent and fair prices are revealed in the bottom chart. Note that NWN was just $7.43 over the mark, and BKH and KO are both within $30 of being there.
The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.
Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your Dividend Aristocrats dog stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.
Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexArb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by YCharts. Dog art: Open source dog art from dividenddogcatcher.com
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Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.