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Agar Capital Management profile picture
Problem is that the FED target may not be achieved and we may end up seeing wage-inflation spiral much before that. There is significant shortage of front-line workers in most, if not all, industries. Mid and mid-senior level management positions are being trimmed to improve profitability. Front-line workers are either not coming back to work or have retired early. In short, before FED realize their dream of slowing economy, there is a high likelihood that the pressure from increase in wages may set in and inflation expectations get set-in household decision making as a new trend.
It has long been known that the FED targets sectors in order when it wants to throw the economy in reverse: first, housing; second: autos as noted; third, capital goods; then labor markets in which it aims to increase unemployment as a policy lever. When there are supply problems, it just cuts back on demand without oversight.
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