MDA Breakout Stocks Week 36 - September 2022: Short-Term Picks To Give You An Edge

Sep. 06, 2022 7:29 PM ETAAPL, BERZ, BYND, CELH, CLFD, CRM, CVX, DOW, ENPH, GOOG, GOOGL, GTHX, IPI, JPM, K, MCD, MNRL, MRK, MSFT, NOG, PRCT, RES, SOXL, TDW, TRIL, VRDN1 Comment

Summary

  • Two new Breakout Stocks for Week 36 with better than 10% short-term upside potential and a Dow 30 pick. Average cumulative returns now down to +106.5% YTD.
  • This week no picks beat 10% gains in less than a week with only small gains before the gauges turned much more negative to start the week.
  • The streak of weekly picks gaining over 10% in less than a week of trading days decreased to 222 out of 276 trading weeks (80.4%) not counting multiple gainers.
  • All the V&M Portfolios are beating the S&P 500 YTD.  Plus new July midyear picks are also up Piotroski-Graham +7.79%, Neg Forensic +30.0%, YTD Bounce/Lag +38.1%.
  • The MDA breakout picks continue to beat the S&P 500 into 6 consecutive years, delivering a CAGR +31.8% and 718.1% compounding returns through 2022. In 2021 returns were +70.5%.
  • Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Value & Momentum Breakouts get exclusive access to our model portfolio. Learn More »

Brecon beacons landscape

WLDavies

Introduction

The Weekly Breakout Forecast continues my doctoral research analysis on MDA breakout selections over more than 7 years. This subset of the different portfolios I regularly analyze has now exceeded 260 weeks of public selections as part of this ongoing live forward-testing research. The frequency of 10%+ returns in a week is averaging over 4x the broad market averages in the past 5+ years.

In 2017, the sample size began with 12 stocks, then 8 stocks in 2018, and at members' request since 2020, I now generate only 4 selections each week. In addition, 2 Dow 30 picks are provided, as well as a new active exchange-traded fund ("ETF") portfolio that competes against a signal ETF model. Monthly Growth & Dividend MDA breakout stocks continue to beat the market each year as well. I offer 11 top models of short and long term value and momentum portfolios that have beaten the S&P 500 since my trading S&P 500 since my trading studies were made public.

Market Outlook

The Momentum Gauges®, economic events, and weekly market outlook are now separated into a new weekly article here which also includes my new weekly Technical Market update videos. Forecasts from the prior week continue unchanged with increased Fed tightening toward key S&P 500 support levels in September:

SPY long term chart

FinViz.com VMBreakouts.com

Momentum Gauges® Stoplight signals for Week 36 with all the gauges now negative and monthly gauges consecutively negative from November. S&P 500 gauges turned negative a week ago Friday and the Premium Portfolio automatically moves to cash on that signal avoiding over -7.4% declines last week.

Stoplight momentum gauges

VMBreakouts.com

Current Returns

In a quick study of the MDA breakout selections YTD there are 75 picks in 35 weeks beating the S&P 500. 48 are picks beating the S&P 500 by over 10%+ in double digits. Leading MDA gainers include (CLFD) +61.2%, (VRDN) +70.6%, (TDW) +98.9, (RES) +71.5% of the 75 picks beating the major indices YTD.

Breakout returns YTD without signals

VMBreakouts.com

Additional background, measurements, and high frequency breakout records on the Weekly MDA Breakout model is here: Value And Momentum MDA Breakouts +70.5% In 52 Weeks: Final 2021 Year End Report Card

2022 First-Half Weekly Return Results

First half returns with all weekly returns on the V&M Dashboard

Weekly returns 2022

VMBreakouts.com

Red weekly color indicates negative Market Momentum Gauge signals. MDA breakout selections outperform when the market signal is positive and daily negative values are below 40 level.

Historical Performance Measurements

Historical MDA Breakout minimal buy/hold returns are at +70.5% YTD when trading only in the positive weeks consistent with the positive Momentum Gauges® signals. Remarkably, the frequency streak of 10% gainers within a 4- or 5-day trading week continues at highly statistically significant levels above 80% not counting frequent multiple 10%+ gainers in a single week.

Annual returns MDA breakout

VMBreakouts.com

Longer term many of these selections join the V&M Multibagger list now at 109 weekly picks with over 100%+ gains, 40 picks over 200%+, 18 picks over 500%+ and 11 picks with over 1000%+ gains since January 2019 such as:

  • Celsius Holdings (CELH) +1,950.2%
  • Enphase Energy (ENPH) +1,917.9%
  • Intrepid Potash (IPI) +1,235.2%
  • Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) +1,080.9%
  • Trillium Therapeutics (TRIL) +1,008.7%

More than 200 stocks have gained over 10% in a 5-day trading week since this MDA testing began in 2017. A frequency comparison chart is at the end of this article. Readers are cautioned that these are highly volatile stocks that may not be appropriate for achieving your long term investment goals: How to Achieve Optimal Asset Allocation

The Week 36 - 2022 Breakout Stocks For Next Week Are:

The picks for next week consist of 2 Energy, 1 Healthcare and 1 Technology sector stocks. These stocks are released to members in advance every Friday morning near the open for the best gains. Prior selections may be doing well, but for research purposes I deliberately do not duplicate selections from the prior week. These selections are based on MDA characteristics from my research, including strong money flows, positive sentiment, and strong fundamentals -- but readers are cautioned to follow the Momentum Gauges® for the best results.

  1. Brigham Minerals (MNRL) - Energy Oil & Gas E&P
  2. PROCEPT BioRobotics Corp. (PRCT) - Healthcare / Medical Devices

Brigham Minerals (MNRL) - Energy Oil & Gas E&P

MNRL chart

FinViz.com

Price Target: $36.00/share (See my FAQ #20 on price targets)

Aug-22-22 06:00PM Brigham Minerals, Inc. Announces Core Midland Basin Acquisition Business Wire
Aug-19-22 03:35PM Energy stocks: Is there room for more upside? Experts weigh in Yahoo Finance
Aug-19-22 06:26AM Need To Know: Analysts Are Much More Bullish On Brigham Minerals, Inc. (NYSE:MNRL) Revenues Simply Wall St.
Aug-12-22 04:33PM 7 A-Rated Dividend Stocks to Buy for the Long Haul InvestorPlace
Aug-09-22 06:19AM Brigham Minerals, Inc.'s (NYSE:MNRL) Stock On An Uptrend: Could Fundamentals Be Driving The Momentum? Simply Wall St.

(Source: Company Resources)

Brigham Minerals, Inc. owns and operates a portfolio of mineral and royalty interests in the continental United States. The company primarily holds mineral and royalty interests in the Delaware and Midland Basins in West Texas and New Mexico; the South Central Oklahoma Oil Province and Sooner Trend Anadarko Basin Canadian and Kingfisher Counties plays in the Anadarko Basin of Oklahoma; the Denver-Julesburg Basin in Colorado; and Wyoming and the Williston Basin in North Dakota.

MNRL rover report

StockRover.com

PROCEPT BioRobotics Corp. (PRCT) - Healthcare / Medical Devices

PRCT

FinViz.com

Price Target: $50.00/share (See my FAQ #20 on price targets)

Aug-22-22 04:03PM PROCEPT BioRobotics Corp. to Present at 2022 Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference GlobeNewswire
Aug-05-22 05:30PM PROCEPT BioRobotics Corporation (PRCT) Q2 2022 Earnings Call Transcript Motley Fool
Aug-04-22 04:03PM PROCEPT BioRobotics Reports Second Quarter 2022 Financial Results and Increases 2022 Revenue Guidance GlobeNewswire
Jul-14-22 04:02PM PROCEPT BioRobotics to Report Second Quarter 2022 Financial Results on August 4, 2022 GlobeNewswire
Jul-10-22 08:32AM Insiders of PROCEPT BioRobotics Corporation (NASDAQ:PRCT) received good value on their investment after their US$11m purchase jumped US$3.3m in value Simply Wall St.
Jun-16-22 02:30PM Procept Biorobotics Corp Joins Elite Club Of Stocks With RS Ratings Over 90 Investor's Business Daily

(Source: Company Resources)

PROCEPT BioRobotics Corporation, a surgical robotics company, develops transformative solutions in urology. It develops, manufactures, and sells AquaBeam Robotic System, an image-guided, surgical robotic system for use in minimally-invasive urologic surgery with a focus on treating benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH). The company also designs Aquablation therapy for males suffering from lower urinary tract symptoms due to BPH.

PRCT rover report

StockRover.com

Top Dow 30 Stocks To Watch For Week 36

First, be sure to follow the Momentum Gauges® when applying the same MDA breakout model parameters to only 30 stocks on the Dow Index. Conditions have delivered the worst first half to the stock market since 1970. Second, these selections are made without regard to market cap or the below-average volatility typical of mega-cap stocks that may produce good results relative to other Dow 30 stocks.

The most recent picks of weekly Dow selections in pairs for the last 5 weeks:

Symbol Company Current % return from selection Week
(JPM) JPMorgan Chase & Co. -0.84%
(DOW) Dow Inc. -9.46%
MRK Merck & Co. -6.12%
AMGN Amgen, Inc. -3.25%
(MCD) McDonald's Corporation -2.36%
(MRK) Merck & Co. -3.77%
(CRM) Salesforce -19.18%
(MSFT) Microsoft Corporation -9.49%
(AAPL) Apple, Inc. -2.79%
(CVX) Chevron Corporation -0.03%

If you are looking for a much broader selection of large cap breakout stocks beyond the weekly stocks, I recommend these long term portfolios. The new mid-year selections were released to members to start July:

Piotroski-Graham enhanced value -

  • July up +7.79%
  • January portfolio beating S&P 500 by +28.69% YTD.

Positive Forensic -

  • July down -5.68%
  • January Positive Forensic beating S&P 500 by +4.11% YTD.

Negative Forensic -

  • July up +30.03%
  • January Negative Forensic beating S&P 500 by +16.12% YTD

Growth & Dividend Mega cap breakouts -

  • August up +4.91%
  • January portfolio beating S&P 500 by +11.94% YTD

These long term selections are significantly outperforming many major Hedge Funds and all the hedge fund averages since inception. Consider the actively managed ARK Innovation fund down -557.1% YTD, Tiger Global Management -52% YTD, RTW Investment Group -34% YTD.

The Dow pick for next week is:

Apple

Apple is holding at current 155/share key support the last 2 days and could bounce into the negative channel above 160/share resistance. Indicators are highly negative but net MFI flows are showing a short term potential bounce toward lower highs potentially to the top of the negative channel around 165/share before continuing the bearish stair steps lower in the channel.

Finviz Chart AAPL

FinViz.com VMBreakouts.com

Background On Momentum Breakout Stocks

As I have documented before from my research over the years, these MDA breakout picks were designed as high frequency gainers.

These documented high frequency gains in less than a week continue into 2020 at rates more than four times higher than the average stock market returns against comparable stocks with a minimum $2/share and $100 million market cap. The enhanced gains from further MDA research in 2020 are both larger and more frequent than in previous years in every category. ~ The 2020 MDA Breakout Report Card

The frequency percentages remain very similar to returns documented here on Seeking Alpha since 2017 and at rates that greatly exceed the gains of market returns by 2x and as much as 5x in the case of 5% gains.

MDA Frequency charts annual results

VMBreakouts.com

(Value & Momentum Breakouts).

The 2021 and 2020 breakout percentages with 4 stocks selected each week.

MDA frequency returns 2021 2020

VMBreakouts.com

MDA selections are restricted to stocks above $2/share, $100M market cap, and greater than 100k avg daily volume. Penny stocks well below these minimum levels have been shown to benefit greatly from the model but introduce much more risk and may be distorted by inflows from readers selecting the same micro-cap stocks.

Conclusion

These stocks continue the live forward-testing of the breakout selection algorithms from my doctoral research with continuous enhancements over prior years. These Weekly Breakout picks consist of the shortest duration picks of seven quantitative models I publish from top financial research that also include one-year buy/hold value stocks. Remember to follow the Momentum Gauges® in your investing decisions for the best results.

All the V&M portfolio models are beating the market indices through the worst 6 month start since 1970. New mid-year value portfolios are up sharply to start the next long term buy/hold period.

YTD portfolio returns

VMBreakouts.com

The final 2021 returns for the different portfolio models from January of last year are shown below.

2021 portfolio returns

VMBreakouts.com

All the very best to you, stay safe and healthy and have a great week of trading!

JD Henning, PhD, MBA, CFE, CAMS



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This article was written by

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Welcome! I am a Finance PhD, MBA, investment adviser, fraud examiner and certified anti-money laundering specialist with more than 30 years trading and investing stocks and other securities. I'm the founder of Value & Momentum Breakouts.

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I'm JD Henning, the founder of Value & Momentum Breakouts. I've spent decades studying how to get better returns in the market. I've earned degrees researching markets, and even more importantly, I've spent the time myself as a trader and investor.  I am one of those unusual multi-millionaire, PhD's in finance, former Coast Guard officer with a bunch of certifications ranging from anti-money laundering specialist, investment adviser, to fraud examiner...  who genuinely enjoys helping others do well in the markets.  I'm bringing the fruits of my experience and research to this service.  I am highly accessible to members to answer questions and give guidance.  

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Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of BOIL either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: I continue to follow the Market Momentum Gauge® and Sector Momentum Gauge® signals. I adjust my exposure ahead of weekends and holidays to minimize the risk from these high volatility 3x funds that may not be appropriate investments for your portfolio. Readers are highly encouraged to consider your own optimal asset allocation strategies to diversify risks and enhance returns. I have been mostly in cash this year with many weeks of negative Momentum Gauge signals.

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