Apple, iPhone 14, And The China Antithesis

Sep. 25, 2022 5:33 AM ETApple Inc. (AAPL)YANG24 Comments


  • If you follow Apple analysis, you are probably a bit confused now, given the extreme divergence of opinions.
  • I am an Apple bull. My favorite Munger quote is not to comment on a topic till I can argue against myself better than others can.
  • Following this wisdom, the focus here is to address the risks facing Apple that are not often discussed. In my mind, the biggest one is its large exposure to China.
  • Apple investors need to be aware of the ongoing risks associated with China, including possibilities of new lockdowns, China-US trade tension, et al.
  • These risks could fundamentally change the Apple thesis if any of them materializes, and some hedging ideas are discussed.
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concrete wall with painted united states, china and russia flags



Readers familiar with my writing know that I am a long-term bull of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). And lately, with large market volatility, the market ratings of AAPL have shown large variances. Take the articles published on Seeking Alpha as an example. In August

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This article was written by

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** Disclosure** I am associated with Envision Research

I am an economist by training, with a focus on financial economics. After I completed my PhD, I have been professionally working as a quantitative modeler, with a focus on the mortgage market, commercial market, and the banking industry for more than a decade. And at the same time, I have been managing several investment accounts for my family for the past 15 years, going through two market crashes and an incredible long bull market in between. 

My writing interests are mostly asset allocation and ETFs, particularly those related to the overall market, bonds, banking and financial sectors, and housing markets. I have been a long time SA reader, and am excited to become a more active participator in this wonderful community! 

Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AAPL either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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