Current TQQQ Metrics Still Indicate A Bear Market Bottom

Oct. 11, 2022 11:52 PM ETProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (TQQQ)8 Comments
Michael James McDonald profile picture
Michael James McDonald


  • This is a follow-up article to an earlier article on TQQQ written on August 16th. Current TQQQ metrics still support the overall conclusion of that article.
  • History shows investors in TQQQ are good at market timing. They hold the greatest number of shares at market bottoms and a smaller number at market tops.
  • Because of this, the 110% increase in TQQQ shares outstanding over the last nine months is a sign we are probably at an intermediate-term market bottom.
  • The current ratio of assets in ProShares bull and bear funds supports this. It's a contrary opinion indicator and implies that too many unsophisticated investors expect lower prices.
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This is a follow-up article to an article written on August 16th titled: Buying In ProShares TQQQ And SQQQ ETFs Appears To Confirm A New Bull Market. That article pointed out the amount of net buying in TQQQ, as well as

This article was written by

Michael James McDonald profile picture
Michael James McDonald is a stock market forecaster, author and former Senior Vice President of Investments at what is now Morgan Stanley. He is a long-term advocate of the theory of contrary opinion and the measurement of investor sentiment when forecasting price direction.His first book, " A Strategic Guide to the Coming Roller Coaster Market" was published in June of 2000, three months before the top of the dot comm market. On its cover was written, "How a new model of the stock market predicts the end of the 18-year bull market (1982-2000) and the beginning of a new era." The "new era" was to be a long-term (roller coaster) trading range market, which did materialize between 2000 and 2009.Then, on August 31st, 2010, in a SA article titled: "The 10 Year Trading Range Is Over - The 'Final Stampede' Has Begun", he called an end to this trading range market and the beginning of another long-term bull market, which also came about. Through his company the Sentiment King, he continues to study and do what he loves - research and attempt to successfully forecast major stock trends - and help others see them too.

Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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