ASML Holding: What Price Excellence?

Nov. 03, 2022 12:13 PM ETASML Holding N.V. (ASML)TSM, ASMLF, CAJFF, GFS, INTC, MU, SSNLF31 Comments
Serge d'Adesky profile picture
Serge d'Adesky
931 Followers

Summary

  • ASML Holding NV is the dominant player in the vibrant semiconductor sector that will shape every industry.
  • The company's order pipeline and back orders suggest resilience even in the global downturn we expect.
  • The biggest threat to ASML? Geopolitics. The risks are real.
  • Our Fair Value calculation puts ASML at $505. I rate it as a Hold.
  • Short-term technicals are short-term bearish, but long-term extremely bullish.

Main microchip on the motherboard

ASML - Leading the Chip Sector to New Frontiers

sankai

Yesterday's Oil = Today's Microchips

Let me propose to you a simple analogy: the microchip is to the information economy what oil was to the industrial economy. Move over King Oil, there's a

US Automotive Chip Market Size

US Automotive Chip Market Size (Grandview Research)

ASML historic stats

ASML historic stats (gurufocus.com)

ASML long term prognosis

ASML long term prognosis (stockcharts.com)

ASML short term prognosis Nov 2022

ASML short term prognosis Nov 2022 (stockcharts.com)

This article was written by

Serge d'Adesky profile picture
931 Followers
Serge d'Adesky holds a B.A. in Political Science from Yale College and an M.A. in International Economics from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.He is the President and Chief Financial Advisor of Northstar Strategic Investments, Inc., a Florida registered IAR. Northstar has been serving individual investors since 2008.  Serge is also the President of TradeJolt.com, a decentralized, online marketplace for short-term trading opportunities.  Besides Seeking Alpha, Serge's writing and commentary are featured on his two  blogs : ( greatinvestmentstrategies.com and decryptofied.com) , and  two YouTube channels  (decryptofied , tradejolt). He is a very active poster  to Twitter (@tradejolter).

Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in ASML over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: I am actively trading this stock using options in trades that I describe in the article.

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