Apple Stock: You Have Been Warned

Nov. 07, 2022 9:50 AM ETApple Inc. (AAPL)META, MSFT, AMZN98 Comments


  • Today, I want to warn all investors once again that it is still too early to buy AAPL no matter how much you believe in the company.
  • The risks continue to increase, especially given the recent developments at the Zhengzhou factory.
  • What if Apple's liquidity, which has been halved in recent quarters, at some point no longer flows into share buybacks, but into redirecting production from China to India?
  • What if Apple's gross margin had peaked, as it did in 1990 and 2012?
  • Why should we pay so much today for such modest operational growth tomorrow? Apple stock is still a "Hold" for me.
  • I do much more than just articles at Beyond the Wall Investing: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more. Learn More »

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Intro & Thesis

I have been covering Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) on Seeking Alpha since mid-December 2021 when the stock was trading at $181. At that time, I took the view that the stock was worth buying on the

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This article was written by

Danil Sereda profile picture
Discover What Wall Street Is Buying

Chief investment analyst at a small Singapore-registered family office. Mainly focused on special situations, IPOs, and undercovered/hidden stocks.

BS in Finance. In my bachelor's thesis, I looked at finding the best statistical/machine learning methods to predict underpricing of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs). A brief summary of my findings: using the KNN method, you could add about 24% of alpha compared to the average return of each initial public offer. In other words, with the AI algorithm I developed, it was possible to distinguish good IPOs from bad IPOs, where the average underpricing of selected companies in the test sample was 64.5%, while the overall average underpricing would be only 41.39%. More can be found here.

Ranked in the top 4% of financial bloggers by Tipranks (as of June 17, 2022, compared to the S&P 500 Index over a 1-year period). 

**Disclaimer: Associated with Oakoff Investments, another Seeking Alpha Contributor

Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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