MDA Breakout Stocks Week 45 - November 2022: Short-Term Picks To Give You An Edge

Summary

  • Two new Breakout Stocks for Week 45 with better than 10% short-term upside potential and a Dow 30 Pick. Average cumulative returns now down to +109.9% YTD.
  • This week one stock gained 10% in less than a week with EPM +10.6% and GWH +7.6% while ENVX missed Q3 earnings for a terrible -41.7% decline.
  • The streak of weekly picks gaining over 10% in less than a week of trading days increased to 229 out of 285 trading weeks (80.3%) not counting multiple gainers.
  • All the V&M Portfolios are beating the S&P 500 YTD: Bounce/Lag +45.4%, Active ETF +32.5%, Piotroski-Graham +16.4%, Neg Forensic +10.3% YTD.
  • The MDA breakout picks continue to beat the S&P 500 into 6 consecutive years delivering a CAGR +31.8% and 718.1% compounding returns through 2022. In 2021, returns were +70.5%.
  • Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Value & Momentum Breakouts get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More »

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Introduction

The Weekly Breakout Forecast continues my doctoral research analysis on MDA breakout selections over more than 7 years. This high frequency breakout subset of the different portfolios I regularly analyze has now exceeded 280 weeks of public selections as part of this ongoing live forward-testing research. The frequency of 10%+ returns in a week is averaging over 4x the broad market averages in the past 5+ years.

In 2017, the sample size began with 12 stocks, then 8 stocks in 2018, and at members' request since 2020, I now generate only 4 selections each week. In addition 2 Dow 30 picks are provided, as well as a new active ETF portfolio that competes against a signal ETF model. Monthly Growth & Dividend MDA breakout stocks continue to beat the market each year as well. I offer 11 top models of short and long-term value and momentum portfolios that have beaten the S&P 500 since my trading studies were made public.

Market Outlook

The Momentum Gauges® continue positive in extremely high volatility after the Fed FOMC rate hike reaction last Wednesday. Many of the FANG mega cap stocks hit new 2022 year lows last week and META hit the lowest levels since 2015. More of these incredible charts are detailed here in my most recent article.

We are still in a pattern of bearish rallies in a longer negative channel from November 2021 and the monthly gauges are still negative. There are strong similarities to the volatility and patterns of 2018 and 2008 in the minds of many investors. Follow the Momentum Gauges and be ready for more swift changes.

2008 / 2022 S&P 500 compared

yuriymatso

Momentum Gauges® Stoplight ahead of Week 45. The daily and S&P 500 momentum gauges are positive and the weekly gauges have turned positive for the first time in 8 weeks. The technology sector turned negative last week and that is the largest market sector and a negative signal often precedes broader market downturns.

Momentum Gauge stop light signals

VMBreakouts.com

The first stage of weekly and monthly sector gauges have been released on the automated Momentum Gauge website to the public this week!

Daily Market Momentum Gauges continue positive from October 21st with the weekly gauges continuing positive this week for a second week in a row.

Daily Momentum Gauges

app.VMBreakouts.com

Current Returns

So far YTD 2022 there are 115 picks in 44 weeks beating the S&P 500. 96 picks are beating the S&P 500 by over 10%+ in double digits. Leading MDA gainers include (NUVL) +51.8%, (MNRL) +43.4%, (RES) +128.1%, (TDW) +184.6%, (MGPI) +110.4%, (WVE) +49.2%, (TA) +53.0%. (COP) 132.32%, (WIRE) 139.3%.

Despite such high negative momentum conditions all year, 44 picks in 44 weeks have gained over 10% in less than a week. Additionally, 95 picks in 45 weeks have gained over 5% in less than a week in these high frequency breakout selections. These are highly significant statistical results that are further improved by following the Momentum Gauge signals.

2022 YTD MDA breakouts

VMBreakouts.com

Additional background, measurements, and high frequency breakout records on the Weekly MDA Breakout model is here: Value And Momentum MDA Breakouts +70.5% In 52 Weeks: Final 2021 Year End Report Card

Leveraging the Momentum Gauges with ETFs

In addition to timing MDA breakout stock picks for the best returns, the gauges are used for live ETF bull/bear timing signals with strong results.

ETF signal returns

VMBreakouts.com

Historical Performance Measurements

Historical MDA Breakout minimal buy/hold returns are at +70.5% YTD when trading only in the positive weeks consistent with the positive Momentum Gauges® signals. Remarkably, the frequency streak of 10% gainers within a 4- or 5-day trading week continues at highly statistically significant levels above 80% not counting frequent multiple 10%+ gainers in a single week.

Annual MDA returns

VMBreakouts.com

Longer term many of these selections join the V&M Multibagger list now at 107 weekly picks with over 100%+ gains, 44 picks over 200%+, 20 picks over 500%+ and 12 picks with over 1000%+ gains since January 2019 such as:

  • Enphase Energy (ENPH) +1942.2%
  • Celsius Holdings (CELH) +1,738.8%
  • Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) +1,210.5%
  • Trillium Therapeutics (TRIL) +1008.7%

More than 300 stocks have gained over 10% in a 5-day trading week since this MDA testing began in 2017. A frequency comparison chart is at the end of this article. Readers are cautioned that these are highly volatile stocks that may not be appropriate for achieving your long-term investment goals: How to Achieve Optimal Asset Allocation

The Week 45 - 2022 Breakout Stocks for next week are:

The picks for next week consist of 3 Energy and 1 Basic Material sector stocks. Energy and Basic Materials are the most positive sectors on the gauges at the close Friday and for the past two weeks. These stocks are measured from release to members in advance every Friday morning near the open for the best gains. Prior selections may be doing well, but for research purposes I deliberately do not duplicate selections from the prior week. These selections are based on MDA characteristics from my research, including strong money flows, positive sentiment, and strong fundamentals -- but readers are cautioned to follow the Momentum Gauges® for the best results.

  1. Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE) - Energy / Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
  2. MAG Silver Corp. (MAG) - Basic Materials / Silver

Clean Energy Fuels - Energy / Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

CLNE chart

FinViz.com

Price Target: $8.25/share (See my FAQ #20 on price targets)

Oct-18-22 04:05PM BP's $4.1B Archaea acquisition could spur other big biogas deals, TPH analyst says American City Business Journals
Oct-18-22 10:15AM Investors bid Clean Energy Fuels [NASDAQ:CLNE] up US$96m despite increasing losses YoY, taking three-year CAGR to 36% Simply Wall St.
Oct-10-22 08:30AM Clean Energy to Report Third Quarter 2022 Financial Results on November 8; Conference Call to Follow at 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time Business Wire
Sep-28-22 11:31AM BlackRock Says These Are the Best Sectors to Invest in During Inflationary Times TipRanks

(Source: Company Resources)

Clean Energy Fuels Corp. provides natural gas as an alternative fuel for vehicle fleets and related fueling solutions, primarily in the United States and Canada. It supplies renewable natural gas (RNG), compressed natural gas (CNG), and liquefied natural gas (LNG) for medium and heavy-duty vehicles; and offers operation and maintenance services for public and private vehicle fleet customer stations. The company also designs, builds, operates, and maintains fueling stations; and sells and services compressors and other equipment that are used in RNG production and fueling stations.

CLNE report

StockRover.com

MAG Silver Corp. - Basic Materials / Silver

MAG chart

FinViz.com

Price Target: $19.00/share (See my FAQ #20 on price targets)

Oct-26-22 06:50AM MAG Silver Reports Third Quarter Production From Juanicipio GlobeNewswire
Oct-06-22 02:29PM Top Silver Stocks for Q4 2022 Investopedia
Oct-05-22 06:50AM MAG Silver Announces Inaugural Sustainability Report GlobeNewswire
Oct-04-22 09:28AM 10 Best Junior Silver Mining Stocks Insider Monkey
Sep-13-22 06:50AM MAG Silver Provides Juanicipio Commissioning Update GlobeNewswire
Aug-17-22 02:33PM MAG Silver's (MAG) Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates, Rise Y/Y Zacks

(Source: Company Resources)

MAG Silver Corp. engages in the exploration and development of precious metal mining properties. The company explores for silver, gold, lead, and zinc deposits. It primarily holds 44% interest in the Juanicipio project located in the Fresnillo District, Zacatecas State, Mexico

MAG report

StockRover.com

Top Dow 30 Stocks to Watch for Week 45

First, be sure to follow the Momentum Gauges® when applying the same MDA breakout model parameters to only 30 stocks on the Dow Index. Conditions have delivered the worst first half to the stock market since 1970. Second, these selections are made without regard to market cap or the below-average volatility typical of mega-cap stocks that may produce good results relative to other Dow 30 stocks. The most recent picks of weekly Dow selections in pairs for the last 5 weeks:

Symbol Company Current % return from selection Week
CVX Chevron Corp. +0.53%
(INTC) Intel Corp. -0.81%
CVX Chevron Corp. +8.57%
TRV Travelers Companies +6.38%
(JPM) JPMorgan Chase +17.53%
(GS) Goldman Sachs Group +19.31%
MRK Merck & Co. +15.19%
(CVX) Chevron Corp. +14.62%
(MRK) Merck & Co. +15.19%
(TRV) Travelers Companies +19.49%

If you are looking for a much broader selection of large cap breakout stocks, I recommend these long-term portfolios. The new mid-year selections were released to members to start July:

Piotroski-Graham enhanced value -

  • July midyear at +2.55%
  • January portfolio beating S&P 500 by +37.33% YTD.

Positive Forensic -

  • July midyear down -9.18%
  • January Positive Forensic beating S&P 500 by +9.43% YTD.

Negative Forensic -

  • July midyear down -12.54%
  • January Negative Forensic beating S&P 500 by +31.20% YTD

Growth & Dividend Mega cap breakouts -

  • July midyear down -4.75%
  • January portfolio beating S&P 500 by +14.61% YTD

These long-term selections are significantly outperforming many major Hedge Funds and all the hedge fund averages since inception. Consider the actively managed ARK Innovation fund down -58.89% YTD, Tiger Global Management -52% YTD.

The Dow pick for next week is:

Dow Inc. (DOW)

Dow earnings and revenue beat estimates on October 20th and the technical indicators are showing strong early breakout conditions. Price has moved above the negative channel from June for the first time and is testing 50/share resistance. Institutions are net buyers in the current quarter and insiders are still net sellers. Watch for a breakout above 50/share to increase net MFI inflows for breakout move to 55/share next resistance.

Finviz Chart DOW

FinViz.com

Background on Momentum Breakout Stocks

As I have documented before from my research over the years, these MDA breakout picks were designed as high frequency gainers.

These documented high frequency gains in less than a week continue into 2020 at rates more than four times higher than the average stock market returns against comparable stocks with a minimum $2/share and $100 million market cap. The enhanced gains from further MDA research in 2020 are both larger and more frequent than in previous years in every category. ~ The 2020 MDA Breakout Report Card

The frequency percentages remain very similar to returns documented here on Seeking Alpha since 2017 and at rates that greatly exceed the gains of market returns by 2x and as much as 5x in the case of 5% gains.

MDA frequency breakout charts

VMBreakouts.com

The 2021 and 2020 breakout percentages with 4 stocks selected each week.

2020/2021 frequency breakouts

VMBreakouts.com

MDA selections are restricted to stocks above $2/share, $100M market cap, and greater than 100k avg daily volume. Penny stocks well below these minimum levels have been shown to benefit greatly from the model but introduce much more risk and may be distorted by inflows from readers selecting the same micro-cap stocks.

Conclusion

These stocks continue the live forward-testing of the breakout selection algorithms from my doctoral research with continuous enhancements over prior years. These Weekly Breakout picks consist of the shortest duration picks of seven quantitative models I publish from top financial research that also include one-year buy/hold value stocks. Remember to follow the Momentum Gauges® in your investing decisions for the best results.

All the V&M portfolio models are beating the market indices through the worst 6 month start since 1970. New mid-year value portfolios are again leading the major indices to start the next long-term buy/hold period.

Portfolio returns YTD

VMBreakouts.com

The final 2021 returns for the different portfolio models from January of last year are shown below.

2021 annual portfolio returns

VMBreakouts.com

All the very best to you, stay safe and healthy and have a great week of trading!

JD Henning, PhD, MBA, CFE, CAMS



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This article was written by

JD Henning profile picture
17.3K Followers
Revealing the best financial models targeting double digit success

Welcome! I am a Finance PhD, MBA, investment adviser, fraud examiner and certified anti-money laundering specialist with more than 30 years trading and investing stocks and other securities. I'm the founder of Value & Momentum Breakouts.

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I'm JD Henning, the founder of Value & Momentum Breakouts. I've spent decades studying how to get better returns in the market. I've earned degrees researching markets, and even more importantly, I've spent the time myself as a trader and investor.  I am one of those unusual multi-millionaire, PhD's in finance, former Coast Guard officer with a bunch of certifications ranging from anti-money laundering specialist, investment adviser, to fraud examiner...  who genuinely enjoys helping others do well in the markets.  I'm bringing the fruits of my experience and research to this service.  I am highly accessible to members to answer questions and give guidance.  

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It's been quite the start of the year for investors. My guess is, after a decade of good times in the market, you’re here looking for some guidance in how to navigate these volatile markets and the uncertainty of the coronavirus and inflationary conditions. You’re in the right place. For the past 5 years I’ve made my trading systems public and helped hundreds of my subscribers navigate and profit from every market downturn and breakout - including the coronavirus crash last year.



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Value & Momentum Breakouts doesn't stop with the Momentum Gauges® and the Bull/Bear ETF strategy. The service is designed for investors who appreciate having easy access to quick picks from many top quantitative financial models across different types of investing strategies.  Portfolios and selections cover all types of investments:

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Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: I continue to follow the Market Momentum Gauge® and Sector Momentum Gauge® signals. I adjust my exposure ahead of weekends and holidays to minimize the risk from these high volatility 3x funds that may not be appropriate investments for your portfolio. Readers are highly encouraged to consider your own optimal asset allocation strategies to diversify risks and enhance returns. I have been mostly in cash this year with many weeks of negative Momentum Gauge signals.

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