CPI: A Relief For Markets But Details Only Moderately Bullish


  • We summarize key data and provide in-depth analysis of the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
  • All Items and Core CPI inflation were significantly below expectations.
  • Results were significantly impacted by "one-off" results in a few volatile items.
  • Overall, the report should be received with "relief" by bond and equity markets.  This month’s CPI should provide a "window of opportunity" - all other factors remaining equal - for bond and stock markets to rally between now and the next CPI report.
  • Successful Portfolio Strategy members get exclusive access to our real-world portfolio. See all our investments here »

INFLATION word on calculator in idea for FED consider interest rate hike, world economics and inflation control, US dollar inflation

Khanchit Khirisutchalual

Summary Data and Analysis

Figure 1 below highlights key summary data and analysis for this month’s All Items CPI.

Figure 1: All Items: Change, Acceleration, Expectations & Surprise

All Items CPI table

All Items CPI (BLS, Investor Acumen)

Source: BLS, Investing.com, Investor Acumen

Core CPI table

Core CPI (BLS, Investor Acumen)

Aggregate CPI Component Analysis

Aggregate CPI Component Analysis (BLS, Investor Acumen)

Top CPI Contributors

Top CPI Contributors (BLS, Investor Acumen)

CPI Acceleration Contributors

Top CPI Acceleration Contributors (BLS, Investor Acumen)

Top CPI Movers

Top CPI Movers (BLS, Investor Acumen)

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This article was written by

James A. Kostohryz profile picture
A master portfolio strategist is your asset allocation coach.
James A. Kostohryz has more than twenty years of experience investing and trading virtually every asset class across the globe. After working exclusively with investment institutions for over two decades, Kostohryz now offers a very unique service that is specifically designed for individual investors: Successful Portfolio Strategy, offered through the Seeking Alpha Marketplace.

Kostohryz started his investment career as an analyst at one of the world's largest asset management firms covering sectors as diverse as emerging markets, banking, energy, construction, real estate, metals and mining. Later, Kostohryz became Global Portfolio Strategist and Head of International Investments for a major investment bank.

Kostohryz currently manages JK Investment Consulting, a firm specializing in: 1) Global portfolio strategy; 2) Risk analytics; 3) Macro forecasting; 4) Business cycle analysis; 5) Quantitative analytics. Kostohryz is also founder and CEO of Investor Acumen, a service dedicated to empowering individual investors to achieve their investment goals.

Born in Mexico, Kostohryz grew up in Colombia and South Texas. He graduated with honors from both Stanford University and Harvard Law School. He is a former NCAA and international-class decathlete and has stayed active in a variety of sports. Kostohryz pursues various intellectual interests and is currently writing a book about the impact of culture on economic development.

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