Dollar Turn More Credible But Maybe Too Much Too Fast

Nov. 13, 2022 11:55 PM ETFXA, FXC, CYB, EROTF, ULE, EUO, FXE, FXY, JYNFF, YCL, YCS, FXB, GBBEF, UUP, USDU, UDN3 Comments
Marc Chandler profile picture
Marc Chandler
15.4K Followers

Summary

  • We had been suggesting the dollar was in the process of carving out a significant high. The Dollar Index peaked on September 28, a little shy of 114.80.
  • While we accepted the turn would be dramatic, our immediate concern is that by nearly any near-term technical measures, the dollar is oversold. We suspect that a near-term dollar low may have been recorded before the weekend.
  • With last week's advance, the euro has also retraced (38.2%) of this year's decline at around $1.0285.

The US dollar balloon is about to explode as more and more wind blows.

Jikaboom

Even before the softer-than-expected US inflation, we had been suggesting the dollar was in the process of carving out a significant high. Our strongest conviction was that sterling bottomed in late September at a record low near $1.0350. Our conviction had also

This article was written by

Marc Chandler profile picture
15.4K Followers
Marc Chandler has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for 25 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. A prolific writer and speaker he appears regularly on CNBC and has spoken for the Foreign Policy Association. In addition to being quoted in the financial press daily, Chandler has been published in the Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, and the Washington Post. In 2009 Chandler was named a Business Visionary by Forbes. Marc's commentary can be found at his blog (www.marctomarket.com) and twitter www.twitter.com/marcmakingsense

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