Editor's Note: This is the transcript version of the show we recorded on Wednesday. Please note that due to time and audio constraints, transcription may not be perfect. We encourage you to watch the show embedded above, listen to it below or on the go via Apple Podcasts.
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Daniel Snyder: Welcome everyone to Stock Market Live. I'm Daniel Snyder. This is Austin Hankwitz. Thanks for tuning in today.
Now, I want to take a quick second because this isn't just an ordinary week as you know. This is the week of Thanksgiving. For all of those here in the States, that we are celebrating Happy Thanksgiving to you. We're not going to take too much of your time today, but we appreciate you hanging out with us. We know a lot of you are traveling and a lot of people are having family come in to hang out.
So let's go and get some shout outs. We got Adam, we got Alfonso, Anna, Azim, Christian, Craig. Dan, Elsie, George, Gian, Gooey, Rolling Robert, Ritchie. Thank you, all.
Austin Hankwitz: Hey, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, we can't forget Nancy now. We got Nancy joining us. Don't forget Nancy. We love Nancy.
Daniel Snyder: I got to say first off, a big thank you to everyone that joins us live and the people that are listening to the replay of the podcast. Austin, did you know? I went into some stats. Obviously, we just started the show not too long ago, but we have started climbing the ranks in certain countries within the podcast.
Let me break it down for you. In Thailand, of all places, we're #182 for business investing podcast. We're going to climb. We're going to make it grow higher. And over in Great Britain, we are actually #244 or so. That's cool and all. I like that we're ranking, but we've got to get higher.
So if you guys wouldn't mind, take a moment. Even if you don't listen on Apple Podcasts, head over there, leave us a rating or review, help us out, so that we can get more people here, we get more interaction, more different viewpoints, which hopefully helps us all invest better as we go through this journey.
Awesome. We got to start with this news. We got to start with the groundbreaking news that happened Sunday night. I think everybody here knows what we're talking about because we've been talking about this company for a long time. I have got to ask you, what are your thoughts about Bob Iger coming back to Disney (DIS)?
Austin Hankwitz: So I'm going to be completely transparent. As you know this, I am not the big Disney movie guy. I'm not - I've never been to a Disney Park. I'm not a big Disney human being. I dove a little bit deeper into Disney after we had those initial conversations a few weeks ago.
But by your excitement, by the market's clear excitement, I think that having Bob Iger back in the - on the ropes or on the saddle rather is a good idea. I know you have a lot more information about this as someone who worked at Disney as someone who's a Disney shareholder. So I'm going to get your perspective on maybe why are people so excited about this? I I've got some hunches in the back of my mind, then I'll kind of throw out to you here. But what do you think is getting people so excited about having Bob Iger back?
Daniel Snyder: Yeah. Let's get into - well, first, I just want to clarify. I'm not a shareholder of Disney anymore. I used to be.
Austin Hankwitz: Okay. Okay. I’m fine.
Daniel Snyder: At this time, I’m considering the overall macro environment. I'm considering what's happening with the leadership changes. Obviously, Bob Chapek ran the company like he ran the theme parks, right? The guy came from the theme park to vision within the company. And the thing about Disney is they like to hire CEO positions from within the company when they can.
Obviously, Bob Iger was a unique scenario. He used to be in ABC running sports. And when Disney acquired ABC, therefore, he was able to rise the ranks within that manner. Bob Chapek ran it more from a business finance standpoint. And Bob Iger has always been as most people probably have read right now in the news the creative needs to come first because that is the whole thing behind intellectual property.
When you're creating these characters and you're creating these stories, people need to emotionally connect with them and that is what's going to drive your revenues and your sales and create franchises, and that's the business model. And it's not the theme park. Why do people go to the theme park?
I used to work at the theme park. I think we talked about this one time. When I was in college just down in Orlando, I worked at the theme park, and the whole idea behind the theme park was, why do people come to Disney versus Universal, or SeaWorld (SEAS) or Six Flags (SIX) or anywhere else is because of the characters.
So, the characters and the creative storytelling has to be at the heart of everything that's going on over there. So that's what Bob Iger is going to do, right? This guy, when he was CEO of this previous time, he would do - he would watch all the cuts. He would provide creative feedback notes. The guy drove with creativity and also understood the business side with the Pixar acquisition, the Fox acquisition, everything else.
But the thing is they levered up the debt so high for that Fox acquisition. And then you see Bob Chapek come in and start to leverage up the debt or trying to leverage up the debt even more. And this is where I want to get into these things. So interesting viewpoints.
Josh, let's go ahead and throw up this first slide, Austin, because I was on Facebook. So, I'm still connected with a lot of my friends from times at Disney World and times at Disney in California when I was working at the film studio TV lot and stuff in doing digital content. These are people that work at Disney right now.
So put this in perspective. On the last - I'll just read it to - so that everybody you're listening to the podcast or hears us as well. One of these posts on my Facebook says imagine being so bad at your job that the entire company and your customers celebrate that you are being replaced. Hashtag by Bob. Hi Bob. Of course, comments I got a cake. I'm excited, could not be more thrilled. Yeah, man. Paycheck sucked. So, obviously, internal company dynamics of how employees - but just to remind you, too, like, these employees, the other side of the coin has not always been the most positive when it comes to the C-suite of Disney and how much they get paid and the decisions that are made and stuff. So keep that in mind as well.
But then over here in this other post, obviously, a couple of posts here. One person calls it a Christmas miracle. The other person says, I'm in my early days. I highly dislike this guy, but once I started really learning how much good he did, they're talking about Bob Iger, for the parks in the company as a whole of that change, very excited about this. And Bob Iger was transformational in the parks, right? He opened Shanghai. He led the development of that park, if you remember as well.
Let's go ahead and go to the next slide, Josh, because this is what surprised me. Your own Chief Financial Officer was behind the drive to get Bob Chapek pushed out. And this came across Fortune and across CNBC and a couple of other news sources as well. But it makes sense, right? She's in charge of the numbers. She sees what is going on with the debt. She's trying to make sure that she's protected for herself and her career and her legacy as well, and I'm sure she's very passionate about the company she's been there a long time.
Let's go ahead and go to the next slide. This is actually just an excerpt from that article. It's Bob Chapek who's exceeded Bob Iger's CEO in 2020 was ousted by the Disney Board. Iger reportedly received a call from Susan Arnold, Chairman of the Board on November 18. And then just two days later, the company announced on November 20th that Iger would return as CEO for another two years.
Over the summer, senior leaders of the company, including McCarthy, warned boardroom directors that Disney was heading in the wrong direction and campaigned for Chapek to go. According to these reports, Disney didn't respond to their request for comments.
Let's go ahead and take that…
Austin Hankwitz: What does that mean, Daniel? What does it mean the wrong direction? Do you think financially? Do you think it's not just to get political, but I think a lot of people saw the Buzz Lightyear movie that happened, and some people were excited, other people were very upset about it, right? So is that what they're talking about? What do they talk about the wrong direction?
Daniel Snyder: I think they're talking about the wrong direction of, like, you have this direct-to-consumer model that Bob Iger in the last few years of his term as CEO, he bought BAMTech from MLB. He led the streaming service. He set up the model that Bob Chapek just needed to continue.
But I think when Bob started to steer the direction of re-upping the sports rights and trying to expand DTC internationally, they kept looking at it too much from a business standpoint and just being like, well, what can we get as quick revenue? What can we get just to get something going? They didn't really focus and double down and, like, you think about the movie slates ahead of time that the animation that we expect more out of Disney within the creative realm as well.
And I'm sure there are probably a lot of backdoor discussions of people getting aggravated and people may have left due to creative differences, which is usually what the term is thrown around. But usually, it just means that somebody from a business mindset is interfering with creative, messing up the storytelling, blocking any innovation that might happen there as well. There was one report I believe they wanted to move the Imagineering team from California, where they're based in Glendale, over to Florida.
So typically, they would build roller coasters, they would build the animatronics for the parks, everything would be right there next to Burbank. And that way C-suite could go over. They could check it out and try to innovate it a little bit more before they ship it off around the world wherever needed to go.
Why would you move that to Florida? Like, were you trying to move the entire C-suite and everything else over to Florida? Like, what is the thought process there? Didn't need to happen? I think there were a lot of red flags that kept coming up. I'm sure we're going to learn more over time as well. These next two years will definitely be crucial for the Disney company.
Bob Iger coming in hopefully in the charge. I mean, the guy is brilliant when it comes to the political side of things. We know what happened with Florida, right? But this is also the guy that got a theme park open in China of all places. So, he's very smart when it comes to the political direction of it, the financial direction of it, and the creative direction of it. And that's really what Disney needs to see in a CEO.
So, they got two years to find the next one. We'll see what happens. But, I mean, the guy is 71 years old. He looks like he's, I don't know, 50 something. This guy is in incredible shape.
Austin Hankwitz: I had no idea he was that old. That's crazy. I thought he was like in his 50s. Yeah, that's wild.
Daniel Snyder: Yeah, man. And everybody wanted to run for President, right? But apparently, his wife told him no. So, we're never going to get that. But that's Disney. I hope, guys, I got to ask you. I mean, did you guys expect this Disney Bob Iger comeback? I'm thrilled to see him personally. I love seeing him come back into Disney. Obviously, I'm sure he doesn't really want to do it. But - and he tried to quit multiple times before and the Board kept extending his contract.
So, is it going to last just two years is the other question I have now? But obviously, shareholders love to see this. I mean, the stock popped tremendously on the day. So, let us know in the chat, do you like what's happening right now with the management overturn? Because I'm a huge fan of the company. I think they've got a long way to go.
So, moving forward, let's go and do initial thoughts. Shall we? Oh, but actually, let's do an audience poll. We've got a great amount of people hanging out with us today. Guys, Josh, would you go and throw up the poll? Same question as last week, everybody. If you were here, we ask you, do you expect the market to go higher or lower into the end of the year?
Josh, let’s go ahead and throw that up and give everybody a second, throw a little music on in the background. Give everybody a quick second. Go ahead. Let us know higher or lower. And if I remember correctly, last week, more people expected it to go lower than higher, right?
Austin Hankwitz: I thought it was higher. No, I remember higher. It was like a 60/40 split. It was close. It was very close, but I think more people were expecting higher. I'm still calling for lower, but obviously, that's not happening.
Daniel Snyder: Yeah, awesome. So Stephanie says, where's the holiday music? Stephanie, I'm sorry. It's totally - oh, wait. What kind of music will we play for - I mean, we don't want to kick start and skip over Thanksgiving. What do you listen to Thanksgiving - or Thanksgiving? What kind of music is that?
Austin Hankwitz: I think Thanksgiving music straight to Christmas, man. I think we're just straight to Christmas music. My girlfriend is already in the Christmas cheer. She's listening. She's first in the marshmallow. She's getting excited.
Daniel Snyder: All right, Josh. Let's go ahead and show the result of this poll. What are we at? Perkin Music says the market [ph] - love it. All right. Everybody is expecting - well, not everybody. Most people are expecting the market to go higher into the end of the year. That's 65% versus 35% are expecting the market to head lower until the end of the year.
So with that being said, let's get into initial thought. Shall we?
Austin Hankwitz: I'd love to kick it off, Daniel, if you don't mind.
Daniel Snyder: Go for it.
Austin Hankwitz: Okay. First initial thought was I saw a headline today where Cathie Wood was calling for a $1 million Bitcoin by 2030. I know you are against Bitcoin. You don't believe in it. You probably are on Warren Buffett's side of thinking it's rat poison. I'm still trying to figure out what that might look like with Bitcoin. I have my cryptocurrency ideas with Chainlink and Ethereum, but Bitcoin, what's going on there?
But Cathie Wood says Bitcoin to 1 million by 2030. What are your thoughts? Are you bullish or bearish? Is she crazy?
Daniel Snyder: I'm in the - she's crazy book. Kind of I'm just going to go ahead and make really quick here on Seeking Alpha. Bitcoin would need to rally roughly 6,000% over the next eight years. Not out of the question if there's another I mean, we saw - we all saw it happen over the last few years. We've seen what's happened.
But also, I would say Cathie Wood has purchased more than a 175,000 shares of the popular Grayscale Bitcoin Investment Trust (OTC:GBTC) this week in the recent aftermath. So is she just talking her book is what makes me that's where my head goes. So, I'm still bearish on it. I'm bearish on this. Love what she's doing over there with the innovation and really focusing in that direction of investing, but bearish for me on this.
Austin Hankwitz: And I just want to make a quick disclaimer announcement. Please, please, please, if you are a Bitcoin, an Ethereum, or whatever other cryptocurrency investor, get your money off the exchange and put it into a hardware wallet, right? There's myetherwallet.com. That's what I use. You can get - there's tons of different wallets that you can download, that you can use it, you can share. Like, it's - they're so easy to get, they're so easy to make, do not trust these exchanges. And we saw this with FTX. We saw this with Celsius and Voyager. And all these other terrible exchanges go belly up. Do not be one of those people. Get your money off in exchange.
And if you are exposed to Bitcoin through this Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF, whatever it is specifically there, be weary. I've seen a lot of things. Some rumors are going around that they might be insolvent. I'm not saying that's the case at all. I'm just saying if you want to invest in Bitcoin, invest in Bitcoin, don't go through some third-party. There's too much uncertainty with that. So, with that big…
Daniel Snyder: Let me say she would love a $1 million Bitcoin. And I'm telling…
Austin Hankwitz: Hey, I would too, but you don't get me wrong, man.
Daniel Snyder: So you mentioned what was that ethereumwallet.com? Was that what you're doing?
Austin Hankwitz: Yeah. It's quite literally called myetherwallet.com. That's what I use for all my stuff. It's two-factor authentication through my phone and my laptop. You can also do what's called the Ledger Nano. Heck, I've got an extra one. Send me an email. I'm happy to send it to you. No problem. Yes, myetherwallet.com. That's exactly right. So that's what I use first.
Daniel Snyder: I used to discover from the host and panelist. Sometimes when you guys chat with us, it only goes to us. I want to make sure that everybody sees that myetherwallet.com. There you go. Yep, just put it in the chat. There you go. Everybody go check it out. So just to make sure that is a personal wallet, right? That is not a…
Austin Hankwitz: It is.
Daniel Snyder: …and so if an exchange goes bust, you are still okay as a holder of that coin.
Austin Hankwitz: 100%. And so, what's really cool about it, they've - we’ve got the app on the phone. You can use the app to activate and, like, get in. It's like a really cool two-factor authentication with the QR code scans. But, yes, it's not exchange. It's off of that. It is a personal wallet. Nothing is up for risk, which is really cool.
So, the next question, next thought I want to get from your perspective here, Daniel, is HP (HPE). HP said to their investors that they plan to lay off 6,000 people, about 10% or 11% of their workforce. After a quarterly revenue drop of 11%, we saw a 17% drop in laptop sales. By doing this layoff, they hope to save $1.4 billion.
And their CEO is quoted saying, we think that it's - that at this point, it's prudent to not assume that the market will turn during 2023. What does this mean? What – bullish, bearish? What's going on with the laptop sales, with chips, with everything of people not buying laptops? What does that mean for Apple (AAPL) maybe? What are your thoughts here?
Daniel Snyder: Well, we know what's happening within the computer space, right? I think Apple is a different scenario. They have their own iOS software. And what it was always told to me is he who runs the software runs the game, right? It's like Windows runs their game because they created Windows software. Google (GOOG, GOOGL) has Android. Apple has iOS and you see that on macOS and everything else.
So I think Apple's a little bit different than here, but like you have Lenovo (OTCPK:LNVGY) and HP and all these other PC market players that are going to run into this barrier because of the market demand that was pulled forward during COVID as we talked about so much last year. I mean, everybody talked about this, is you had to have computers at home, whether it was buying it for your kid to do their educational studies, whether it was for you and your job, everybody was upgrading, and the businesses were buying new stuff for their employees.
And remember, computers will last a few years. So, I completely see what they're talking about here. I think they're going to see a slump, obviously, especially in the macroeconomic environment of not new companies IPOing, not new companies coming to just formation through LLC. Remember, think about how many people were like, I’m going to become my own boss during COVID because they - we had free money, and we had the ability to do so. You're seeing a pullback in that. And you have got to think about how many of those are eventually going to fall off and eventually disappear.
So, I think, HP, it's a smart move for them to try to get through this cycle, but I think it was kind of something that a lot of Wall Street already saw coming down the runway.
Austin Hankwitz: Got it. Got it. Yeah, I think that's a really great take. It's going to be an interesting 2023.
So, the next and last point, and I guess perspective I want to get from you here is with the housing market. So, investor buying of homes or investors specifically, investor buying of homes has dropped 30% during Q3, right, that's year-over-year, right? So, when you compare Q3 of this year to Q3 last year, it's down 30%, the largest quarterly drop since 2008.
What does this mean for the average home buyer? Are you – are we bullish? Are we bearish? Are they excited now that they could perhaps buy a home for the first time? You don't have to be outbid by all these investors or maybe the heightened interest rates are still going to kind of weigh down on that monthly payment. What do you think?
Daniel Snyder: I think this - so two part-ish. This is bullish for your everyday person that's looking to get started with their first home or just purchase a house, right? Because these companies that - the investors that were stepping in think about whether it's BlackRock (BLK) or whoever was, there was all that circulation of talk about them coming in to buy all these single-family homes, because there was the inflation hedge.
They could get rental monthly income off of it, but those companies have to respect the interest rate levels as a company, whereas individual people can make that decision for themselves in their own scenario. They don't have billions and billions of dollars to worry about, right? Same ways, like, it's easier for us to invest in the stock market than it is for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) and Warren Buffett, right? When you have more money, you have more problems.
So, it's very bullish overall, but I'm still expecting actually a little bit more of a value pullback than housing prices. I know my value of my home has dropped probably within the last few months by about 50 grand. I'm expecting it to come down more, right? That's hypothetical. It's paper gains. It's the whole thing. I'm expecting more of a pullback. I'm still above my breakeven. I mean, 40% in two years is not sustainable when your average increase and value of a home was like 2% or 3% to keep up with inflation, right?
So overall, bullish for the individual. I'm still a little bearish, especially after seeing the housing starts numbers that we got recently where it's like single family home housing starts are down, but multifamily is up. So multifamily being developers building more apartments, condos, things like that. So something to keep an eye on.
Austin Hankwitz: I think that's something that's a great point. And to your point though, interest rates, right? I just want to remind everyone how, excuse me, impactful these interest rates can be, right? I mean, at the start of the year, interest rates were around maybe 3%, 4%. Now they're north of 6% and 7% and 8%. And what that does is that adds $800, $900, $1,000 to your monthly payment that's entirely going to interest, right?
So you're buying power now from the actual price of the home has to come down dramatically. And so, all of these people who are saying, yes, I could afford a $2,800 a month mortgage payment. We're saying, I could buy a $400,000, $500,000 house with this money, right? Maybe even more. But now that numbers happen to come back down to $350,000 or $320,000, right? Because that's only what you can buy with that same $2,800 mortgage payment that they were sort of budgeting for.
And so, to your point of expecting that pullback, I am right there with you, I think we're going to see a moderate pullback as more and more people are beginning to either, one, have to if you're selling your house, you got to sell it, right? They have to sell it for a reason. And so you're going to have to try and meet the market where they are. And the buyers now are saying, hey, I've only got $2,800 or $1,000 whatever the number is, right, that they budgeted for. And with that being said, my buying power is 350 grand. Like, you got to meet me where I am.
So, to that point. I think we're going to see some of that give and take there, but we will come to a point where the housing market's going to kind of not go up 40% anymore. I might have just kind of come back to normal 3%, 4%, 5% a year. And that's what I'm looking forward to as not just a homeowner, but someone who is planning to buy more rental properties in the future.
Daniel Snyder: Yeah. And I just want to say one last thing in regard to this that I actually shared with one of my closest friends is he's down in Florida. They're - he and his wife are looking to get a home here soon. My word of advice is wait until the Fed stops raising, right?
By this point, you've already had four 75 basis points raise. We're going to get the 50 probably in December and the 25 in February. Why do we say that? It's because every time you raise an interest rate, it takes six to eight, nine months for it to be felt in the economy. So not only did I tell them to wait till the interest rate stops to say, if you can hold out maybe another six months because as those interest rates keep going higher, as we're all expecting, we know that they need to, even though it's less, it's still - what they're doing is they impacted the heavy hit which they should have done more. From the get-go, they should have done a 100 basis points and then those people upfront asked me I know hindsight 2020. But let those interest rates hit, watch the buyers step away, AKA, these institutions that you're referring to, let the housing prices come down, and you might be able to get a great entry. Because real estate is no different than stock. You make money when you buy, right? You make money when you buy, so you want to keep that in mind.
But also, for individuals, typically, you hold a house for 10 years. I think is what they obviously say. And then real estate is a long-term investment, as we know. So, if you're not looking at from a monthly income but rather a place to live and controlling your mortgage and expenses, that's kind of what I've been telling people.
So, all right. Thank you so much for bringing those three. I've got three for you. Let's go ahead and run it through this. So, I've got - I did some research over the weekend. Let me tell you what.
Josh, let's go ahead and throw up this first slide. Austin, I've got to get your thoughts on this if you're - I mean, obviously, I think we all know if you're bullish or bearish. Let me just get your overall thoughts of, I found -this is the FTX balance sheet. Look at it. FTX balance sheet and a couple of line items to point out here.
Obviously, actually, let's go ahead and we'll come back to this in just a second. Josh, go to the next slide. I just want to read this because this is notes on this balance sheet. So needless to say, there was no interest, you could write a book detailing the liquidity mismatches and questionable line items in there, but in short, the math doesn't add up to anything good.
Two of the most rigorous - I don't know how it'll work - items, the two craziest items, right? A $2.2 billion asset in a Crypto token created by FTX called Serum, which had a total market cap of roughly $100 million at the time. $2.2 billion is what they were accounting for. It was only worth a $100 million, okay? Fair stuff. Side note, for an $8 billion liability, which was not included in the liability section and had the following description, “hidden poorly internally labeled Fiat account”.
Now, Josh, let's go back to the previous slide and look at this balance sheet a real quick, because this is not to mention. I do want to point out if you guys see it on the right side as well, that bottom column where it says Trump lose, that's his donations to Democratic politicians during the races, right? So, it wasn't even like he was clever.
Obviously, above that though, which is interesting, and you can read about this more later, he had pledged money to help Elon with the Twitter deal. Had Elon came out and was like, I think this kid is full of crap. I don't think he has the money, he claims, he does. There's all sorts of things. which also makes me wonder that with this FTX collapse, do you remember the other day when Elon went and raised another $4 billion by selling Tesla stock?
Austin Hankwitz: Yes. I do.
Daniel Snyder: I wonder if it was because of this. So, I want to know your thoughts? I mean, obviously, we all know that this kid ran a horrible balance sheet as you can all see and look into it later as well. What are your thoughts on this? Just first glance.
Daniel Snyder: First glance is the math's got to map, right? The math's got t map and they couldn't get the math to map. So, the math simply didn't map. And I am appalled, and I don't know if you saw this, but last night, I was going through a couple of more of these fun FTX Twitter threads, reveal all.
And I was appalled by the email that Sam Bankman-Fried had sent out to his fellow employees saying here's what we were thinking. We had collateral of $60 billion and we had liabilities of $8 billion. And then L came down to we had collateral that of only $8 billion and liabilities of $8 billion and then we weren't liquid and things of that nature.
Listen guy. What I didn't read in any of that taking responsibility, apologizing, I mean, I didn't read anywhere - at any point where this guy said what I did was wrong. I am a fraud. I'm recognizing that, like, like, nothing, no accountability, nothing. I think he is a minister society, I do not like this guy with everything inside of me. I hate it.
But yeah, I mean, you look at this and it's just like, this is exactly what cryptocurrency shouldn't be, right? At the end of the day, cryptocurrency was created as a way for people to transparently kind of half their own - being able to keep their books in a transparent way where the banks can't screw us again like they did in 2008, right? That's where all this stemmed where Bitcoin was created. And this is just corporate greed, corporate leverage, a guy getting too big in his own head, politicians, maybe rubbing their shoulders a little bit asking for money, right? I just I hate it.
Daniel Snyder: Also, can we just point out a real quick the first item under the assets column is Robinhood (HOOD). Is - I think that's right, right?
Austin Hankwitz: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, it is. Yep.
Daniel Snyder: I mean and that's why, of course, Robinhood stocks when all this broke completely got demolished. But all right. Thanks for the thoughts on that.
Let's keep moving. Josh, let's go two sides forward now since we already showed the description of that. So I got to bring this up. I found this and I was like, holy crap, this explains so much. So, this is stock bond correlation since 1965. So obviously, above 0% means that stock and bond prices are moving in the same direction at the same time. And below that, for what we've seen for the last 22 years, obviously, is that stocks and bonds have not been correlated What's your initial thoughts here?
Austin Hankwitz: Oh, so I've actually never thought about this. This is really interesting. Well, obviously, as context clues, the first thing I do is look back when we were correlated and that that reminds me of the 70s and 80s when we had the last decade. In the stock market, inflation was high. People were trying to figure out what to do with their money. It was a kangaroo market for several years. That just makes me think that perhaps we're foreshadowing toward a scenario that could be similar in the future.
Obviously, and it's actually kind of funny to kind of bring crypto back into this. People are - people were ranting and raving how great the 4%, 6%, and 8% yields were on their USD in these different crypto exchanges as they were being lent out to perhaps hedge funds and things of that nature. But now we see bond.
Daniel Snyder: F. It’s…
Austin Hankwitz: Yeah. Fugazi, fugazi, you know. But I'll say, it's really cool now to see that the U.S. these treasuries, these bonds, things of that nature are paying that 4%, 6%, 8%, perhaps, maybe one day, but are in that range. They're in spitting distance now of what the crazy returns were of crypto.
And so I just - I really hope, Daniel, that we get back to a point where stock valuations are kind of rooted in fundamental financials, fundamental growth, true valuations that aren't bubbles, so that aren't ups and downs. And I really hope too that we can get back to the idea of having bonds - the 60/40 portfolio, right? Having it in stocks and having it in bonds and bonds being an integral part of someone's portfolio and it's not just 1.5% or 2% that we've kind of seen over the last several years. That's what this is showing me. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think it's - the lost decade might be, I think, coming if we're not careful.
Daniel Snyder: So seeing this, do you think that the 60/40 portfolio is back? Actually, that's a question I have for everybody. Everybody that's listening, leave it as - leave a little chat force. Do you think the 60/40 portfolio is back? Because that's kind of what was based off of the correlation between these stocks and bond prices.
Austin Hankwitz: I think it certainly can be, right? I mean, especially now we look at these 4%, I think it's 4.5% or 4.7% or I mean, certainly, like, that is money, right? It's - that is actually sustainable. I mean, if you have tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars, that is really impactful. Yeah. I think Bill's kind of right here. So maybe not yet, but I think it certainly can be.
Daniel Snyder: That's a great point. All right, Josh. Let's go ahead and take that slide off. One more for you. So since 1975, there has been 51,592 stocks listed on either the NYSE, the NASDAQ, or the AMEX, right? So since that year, 45% of U.S. stocks listed on these exchanges fell 90% from their all-time high prices. So that's 18,676 of these stocks that were almost completely demolished, but the majority of them did end up going to zero.
And knowing what's going on with crypto and what's happening with the stock market and specs and everything else, initial thoughts, is this going to happen more rapidly here within the next few years? Are we seeing more and more stock? I mean, you talk about Zoom, you talk about Meta. Are these stocks going to be pulling back 90%?
Austin Hankwitz: I don't know if we'll see Meta (META) in these large, large companies pull back, but we've already begun to see it with the SPAC. We saw Carvana (CVNA). I don't even think Carvana was the SPAC, but we've seen companies like Carvana. We've seen companies like, I think Upstart (UPST). We've seen other companies of that nature that that went in IPO when everything was hot and sexy and fun. But - and I just made a post about this too to my Seeking Alpha community of things are changing in the way that…
Daniel Snyder: Cash Flow Freaks. Hashtag Cash Flow Freaks.
Austin Hankwitz: Cash Flow Freaks. Check me out Cash Flow Freaks. But things are changing the way that we can't be things for so long have been fundamentally driven. And then recently, right over the last call, a decade or so, debt got really, really cheap.
And when debt's really cheap, you can grow at any cost, right? I can borrow 1%, 2%, 3%. It's no problem. And that's what it's been like. We saw that obviously reflected in the stock prices. It was grow at any cost. And now it's like, hold on, the debt's getting kind of expensive. We can't really grow at any cost anymore. We only got a $120 million left in the bank. I don't think that's enough for us to flip adjusted EBITDA positive or even net income positive over the next two or three years that we really got to figure this out guys.
And there will be companies that do figure it out. I think Hims & Hers, we're going to talk about that company here soon, but there are companies, maybe I shouldn't have.
Austin Hankwitz: Oh, no, that give it away. Daniel, I'm sorry. Anyway, But I think there are companies out there who have seen this rise up, rise back, and dramatic fall down, that we'll be able to flip to a profitability, but there are going to be a lot that we'll see a – we’ll see - it'll look like a war zone at the end of this, right?
IBM'S portfolios would be down 90 some percent. And we saw that with - just zoom out. Just go to 2017, 2018, the 2019 with cryptocurrency, right? I can't tell you how many companies, how many cryptos rather that I saw go from nothing to everything to nothing. And there's still nothing today. That is - they're nothing, right? So it just comes down to you got to find the ones that are actually with it.
Daniel Snyder: You know what crypto did figure out though is they figured out that they will never actually truly go to 0 because they'll just keep adding zeros after the decimal point. That's the one thing Crypto did point out. So Stephanie does go - so go back to 60/40 portfolio question. Stephanie over here in the chat says, it depends on your age, objectives, et cetera.
I think, Bill, you've got a point as well. I think we all have a point, right? Like, maybe it's not time for the 60/40 portfolio yet. We're obviously watching the bond market as well, knowing that it's pretty much twice as big as the stock market. And, obviously, they move inverse correlated depending on what's happening in the bond market.
So I want to go ahead and look at the overall markets, so we can show you guys what's going on because I want to highlight Austin, we finally filled the gap on the VIX. Just as we pointed out, just the other week, we were drawing our trend lines of seeing what the move here was, we moved it on over and we have finally filled the gap.
What I'm expecting is we probably will go down to this 20 level, which is the historical mean for the volatility index. And personally, I'm expecting another pop to the upside. That's just me. But hopefully, we can hang out there a while.
Looking at the U.S. dollar, obviously, we broke through the trend line. As I told you, this kind of consolidating here. Looking at Bitcoin, bitcoins and a consolidation as well. Let's go ahead and look at the SPY ETF for the S&P 500.
And funny enough, just the other day, actually, let's do this. I want to show you guys this as well. So I always tell you, come follow me on LinkedIn, right? Because on LinkedIn just the other day, maybe it was about a week ago now. I had shared this post, I'd taken our screenshot and I asked everybody, you see this chart? What do you do, right? Do you buy? Do you short it? Do you sell? Or do you sit on your hands and wait and see what happens?
Besides Mike's all over here saying to ask me, some people were saying to short sell it and stuff like that. But the interesting thing is just the inverse what we've seen already this week hence the green shirt because it's a green week, got to represent when we can is we have seen a move to the upside. Obviously, here.
So we have been bouncing off the upper gap here, something to keep mind of, and we are floating a little bit above the long-term down trend line. So it's going to be pretty interesting to see what happens over these next few weeks into the year and but something to keep in mind there.
Triple queues for the tech sector, obviously, down trend line, same thing. We've broken through. We've bounced off the down trend line. We moved back to the upside. Obviously, gap above and below the market. And lastly, on the IWM for the small cap stocks. We did - there was a gap right here that we did point out last week that gap is filled and we're kind of in a trading range there as well.
I mean, everything is low volume this week obviously for the holiday as well, so keep that in mind. But, yeah, that's your overall update on the market from a technical standpoint. So, I was going to play guess a stock.
Austin Hankwitz: Play it anyway. We didn’t hear. Maybe we didn’t hear.
Daniel Snyder: That's all right. I'll just give you the rundown. So obviously, we're going over Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) today. Austin is going to make the case for you guys, give you the rundown. But first, I just want to point out a couple of cool stats that I found.
So Hims & Hers is a company that went public via the Oaktree Acquisition Corp. SPAC at a valuation of $1.6 billion back on January 19th of 2021. Of course, during the SPAC craziness that we were going through. The company was founded in 2017 in San Francisco, and actually this company was created within the Atomic Labs portfolio, which is kind of like a VIX fund.
So which is supported by big VC names like Peter Thiel, which we talk about all the time. In 2019, this company expanded its reach across borders and began selling a limited catalog within the United Kingdom. So not only U.S.-based, which is interesting to me. The current enterprise value of the stock. So, of course, market cap minus debt and all that stuff. It's just around $1 billion now, which is where it was in January of 2019 after raising a $100 million in its Series E's funding round. That was pre-money valuation, of course. So, Austin, what is the case for this company, Hims & Hers Health, Incorporated?
Austin Hankwitz: So I was going to make a joke about being thankful for this company because of all the companies I invested into that had sparked this is probably the only one that didn't just blow up my face. And for that reason, I'm thankful on this…
Daniel Snyder: Did you get in when it came to market?
Austin Hankwitz: I did. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I did. And I kept buying all the way up. My - I feel like my average cost now is well in the double digits, but that's okay. And, yeah, full disclosure, I'm a shareholder. I am a shareholder of the company.
So, yeah, the company we're talking about is Hims & Hers Healthcare. They were launched, as Daniel said, in 2017. And this is a healthcare tech company. And that has built a solution to connect those seeking medical care with licensed professionals. Just download their app. share your location, drop in your birthday, and they immediately offer the option to treat a wide range of ailments. Those ailments might include sexual health, hair and skin, mental health, and everyday healthcare, including primary care, allergies, cold and flu, things of that nature, but that's only their first step.
So let's assume you like me. I'm 26 years old and I'm terrified that my hair is going to fall out when I'm older. So I have a finasteride prescription that is fulfilled every single month. And so what I've done is I've gone to Hims. I said, hey, Hims, I need to make sure my hair doesn't fall out. This is my family history. Can you prescribe me perhaps some finasteride, which is a medication to make sure your head doesn't blow up. And they say, sure.
So, Hims will prescribe the medication and then offer it to you in a monthly recurring revenue type plan in the sense that your medication is delivered straight to your door nothing to worry about. You just put that credit card on autopay and you're good to go. And mind you, these prices are incredibly reasonable considering they're selling a bunch of generics, but these aren't high prescriptions, these are those generic companies.
So now you might begin to see how Hims & Hers is kind of playing this awesome foundation of this predictable monthly recurring revenue across their subscriber base. So when the company hit the public markets in 2020, they had a few things going for them that was pretty interesting.
First off, cumulatively, they had conducted 2 million telehealth consultations. And of these cumulative 2 million telehealth consultations, that led to more than 250,000 monthly subscriptions being sent out to their subscribers, right? People like me who say I want this medication sent to my door. And considering they were vertically integrated, the company's 240 specialty providers were all prescribing the Hims’ consumer brands, which led to them having 70% gross profit margins.
From a sales perspective leading up into their public debut, the company was running at a 128% revenue growth compounded annual growth rate from 2018 to 2020, right? So it's three years, 128%. 91% of that revenue is subscription-based revenue, which is really cool. Cumulative revenue per new subscriber was climbing quickly.
So from a six-month period, so let's say like, hey, Austin, you have subscribed to some finasteride, And over the next six months, how much revenue are you going to give us? So in 2019, this was 120%. And then in 2020, this doubled to 220%, right? Nearly doubled to 220%, right? So they were not only sort of getting these subscribers, but they were upselling them like crazy in a good way.
So now here's the fun part. This is what gets me really excited. In their 2020 investor deck, whenever they SPAC, Hims shared with us their financial projections forward 2022, right? All these SPACs, like, yeah, we're going to do great. We're going to have all this money. It's going to be wonderful. $233 million in 2022 revenue, right, $233 million was their goal.
Of that $233 million, $175 million was going to be recognized as gross profit, and they'd have ran about a $10 million adjusted EBITDA loss, right? So that was their goal. $233 million, $175 million and a $10 million adjusted EBITDA loss. The pyramid is saying, hey, in two years, we're going to double our revenue and double our gross profit. It'll be fun. They were wrong. They were absolutely wrong in a very, very good way.
So Hims just shared with us their Q3 earnings report for 2022, and it was absolutely wonderful. Do you guys remember when I mentioned those 2 million cumulative telehealth consultations that led up to their public debut. That number is now 9 million. 9 million telehealth consultations cumulatively.
In only two years, it’s 7 million more consultations in just two years. Those monthly subscriptions of 250,000, that is 991,000 subscribers to date. That same 90% subscription revenue as well, that same - so they added all these new revenue ways of making money and they stayed in that 90% range.
And now here's the best part, right? Back to that original investor deck guiding to $233 million in 2022. Today, the company is projected to do $515 million in revenue this year, right? That is bonkers to me. Not only did they say, yeah, we'll double in two years, that they didn't double. They quintupled. What is that? 5x, right? That's crazy. That's more than doubled than their original projection of doubling in two years. It's intense growth, right? And oh, the margins, right? We just talked about the margins.
So of course, their margins stay intact. Gross profit margins actually expanded from 71% to 78%, they're now guiding to more than 400 million in gross profit for 2022. And the best part is they're guiding to flip adjusted EBITDA positive heading into 2023.
So if you are an aggressive investor looking for growth opportunities, companies that are disrupting the space and growing at a clip that's insane as well as a lot of that floating down to the adjusted EBITDA line, which I think is very important, especially as we just talked about with interest rates being so high and grow at any cost isn't really sexy anymore, I mean, Hims checks a lot of those boxes, right? Disruptive technology. They're flipping healthcare on its head.
Massive total addressable market, right? Tens of billions of dollars, predictable subscription revenue, 90% of quarterly revenue is subscription-based. Juicy gross profit margins nearly 80%. They're exceeding expectations during a recession, right, $5 million, $15 million versus $233 million. They'll likely flip free cash flow positive in 2023
The stock is down 75% from its double peak in 2021. They've outperformed the SPY year-to-date and the quant rating is a strong buy. I mean, come on now. What else is so exciting? Oh, and here's - I forgot to mention the valuation, right? We talk about valuations here all the time. Very important. They're only trading at a two times forward revenue valuation. Two times, right?
A company that is slated to grow revenue by 40% in 2023, quant rating as a hold on Seeking Alpha, do they look at their own…?
Daniel Snyder: Yeah, it’s updated today. I was going to surprise you.
Austin Hankwitz: Oh, man. You kidding me. All right. Well, I guess…
Daniel Snyder: Why is that? Well, stocks, price is up a little bit today. So…
Austin Hankwitz: That could be true. That could be true.
Daniel Snyder: …obviously, valuation aspect. We're watching that, so.
Austin Hankwitz: Well, all right. Well, I'm not crazy. I promise it was a strong buy when I…
Daniel Snyder: It was a strong buy yesterday when I saw. I invest in that.
Austin Hankwitz: But anyway, this is a company who's growing revenue like crazy. They're only trading at 2x forward revenue multiple, 80% gross margins. They'll do billions of dollars, in my humble opinion, in revenue by the end of the decade. There's a lot to be excited about if you are into disruptive healthcare technology.
Daniel Snyder: I love it. All right. Let's take a quick look at the charts, and I've got some questions for you actually about this one. So obviously, this is Hims. This is the SPAC that turned into Hims, the public company. I went ahead and put a little text bubble here, so that you guys could see this is where Hims & Hers went public with that Oaktree SPAC.
So, obviously, somebody, the investors that were in the SPAC already loved the idea, loved it, and then, of course, this was during the SPAC craze. So you got to kind of read through all those bubbles at the lines here. So obviously, as you mentioned, the stocks pulled back tremendously.
And where are we today? I pulled the most recent Fibonacci levels. We're finding some resistance around the 618 here, gap above and below the market. So that's where the chart is. But, Austin, so I love of what you're talking about, right? So we're talking about the massive growth that has happened year-over-year.
Questions I have for you and try to, like, challenging you on this is not to mention that there's short interest over 10% on the stock, which is kind of interesting to me. When do you actually think that this company will flip over to be profitable?
Austin Hankwitz: So are we talking that income profitable or free cash flow profitable, right? I think free cash flow positive…
Daniel Snyder: Oh, yeah, that’s the other plan. Like, so free cash flow per share is like negative $0.14 right now, if we're looking for free cash flow positive.
Austin Hankwitz: I would say next year, I think that's fair. I mean, I'm not talking like millions of dollars, maybe five, six, or something there. It'll be something though, right? I mean, I think at the endo of the day, they were able to scale this company much quicker than expected, right? In their Investor deck, they're hoping they double, they went from $90 million to $515 million, right? That is way more growth than I'm sure that they were expecting in that period of time.
A lot of that might have come though from either offering these new products, right? They've kind of expanded their product offerings. But they've also really leaned into celebrity endorsements, Ronk, Miley Cyrus. I think there were also a couple of other celebrities out there that I would imagine move the needle for them from a sales perspective.
But what's interesting to me and really exciting is they launched their app about six months ago And they didn't really have a easy way to sell this product and get these people to track their products, put in those credit cards, have it be auto invested, right, things of that nature, I'm sorry. autopay, things of that nature. But the app is crushing it. I went to the app store yesterday to go check out the ratings. It's like 2,600 ratings, 4.9 stars. A lot of people like it.
Yeah. I mean, I think at the end of the day, like next year, I think they'd be free cash flow positive.
Daniel Snyder: That's awesome. Also, I'm glad Stephanie asked this over here in the chat because it was kind of one of my thoughts I originally as well as what are their competitive advantages? Is it mainly that they're signing, like, kind of exclusive deals with the products that they're offering because I heard this news the other day about Amazon Clinic that is coming out. And Amazon obviously wants to go, what is it? They want to provide care for more than 20 ailments. And with people having their prime memberships already, that's a certain subscription model.
So is it that Hims & Hers is signing exclusive deals with certain products that you can only get through their subscription? Do you know this?
Austin Hankwitz: I think it's more from like the vertically integrated perspective, right? So, like, they have specialty providers that are working for them, right? And they've got all of these generics now that are wrapped in the Hims & Hers, right, logos and the things of that nature. They've got the two fulfillment centers, one in Ohio, one in Arizona.
And I think that is the competitive advantage of, like, listen, they realize that including myself, I'm uninsured. I do - I'm an entrepreneur. I don't have health insurance. That's just my reality. And so I, though, am happy to say, how much is it going to cost for me to get this prescription? Oh, $35. I can certainly afford that. It's really cool, right?
And so I think there's millions and millions and millions of Americans that are sort of in my age range, maybe older, maybe younger, that don't have that awesome cool. I can go to the doctor opportunity. And that's I think who they're going after and they're crushing it from that perspective, right? They’re going from 2 million to 9 million cumulative telehealth consultations that has more than 3x their total number of subscribers. It's been really cool to see, but I think it would be the - I think it's the vertically integrated business model that they have is what is their competitive advantage.
Daniel Snyder: I love to hear. I love to hear it. So Vita versus Amazon Clinic is pretty cool. Try it out the other day. Obviously - I have to try that as well, but obviously Hims & Hers, I mean, I haven't tried out to look into it.
So before we get on out of here, I want to throw it through - run through all of what we normally do. Josh, let's go ahead and go through the Ratings, Summary, Factor Grades and everything else from the Seeking Alpha symbol page. So obviously, the Seeking Alpha authors have a buy on this stock. Wall Street is a buy as well and the quant system had just switched to a hold today. I can assess that.
Let's go to the next slide.
Austin Hankwitz: Man, I got done [indiscernible] right there. I'll tell you what I was so excited to see it as a strong buy. I thought I found one, Daniel.
Daniel Snyder: It happens. I think you have found one. I have. I really do. I mean, I like a lot of things that you told us about this company when it comes to the growth and the possibility. I mean, there is a huge market that they haven't even tapped. They've got great VC back in. They've got smart people in the position. I mean, the CEO went to - should I was listen looking at it up? I think it went to Warren Business School, actually.
He's been involved with Atomic Venture Labs since, like, 2012. He's, like, a partner and Co-Founder, I guess, of that. They've been doing a lot of stuffs. Seems like a really smart guy. So valuation on the stock Hims & Hers Inc. is a valuation of D-; growth is B+, which is better than it has been in the last three to six months; profitability is a B+, which is also better than it was six months ago; momentum in A; and revisions are in A here as well, which just means the Wall Street analysts are more favorable on the stock revising their up - revising their revenue and EPS revisions upwards. Sorry, it took me a second there.
Let's go to the next slide. This is just to point out, like I said earlier, short interest is 10% on the stock. I don't know, they've got a lot of cash on the balance sheet, not a lot of debt. I think there's a lot of possibilities. So you could see a short squeeze at any moment if some crazy, great news comes out of this.
Let’s go to the next slide and just break it down, so you guys can see Seeking Alpha authors, too, are strong buy, three are buy Wall Street ratings. You got three are strong buy 10 analysts in the last 90 days. Two are a buy and five have a hold on the stock.
And lastly, Josh, next slide, earnings estimates, just to show you guys what is projected for the next two years? I mean, look at that sale growth. You're looking at year-over-year growth next year of 37.37% and then the year after that currently is 23.29%. It’s going to slide off there, Josh.
I think the big thing for me is just watching their marketing spend. I know a lot of people have been talking about that, how they've been doubling their marketing spend as they're going forward and really what the competition with Amazon might look like here in the States. And also I believe Amazon's in a couple places over in Europe.
So It'd be interesting to see what happens there. But I like I think for me, I would put this into my little speculative side of my portfolio and just be like, look, it's a small stock. I see the potential for huge reward here. And I'm glad to know that you're a shareholder, so now I can bug you about it for the rest of time until you sell Sunday. And hopefully, you sell for a $400,000 profit or something, I don't know.
Austin Hankwitz: That'd be great.
Daniel Snyder: All right. That's what we all hope for. So Stephanie says who are the founders. Can we see the founders’ position recently buying and selling shares? Absolutely. Well, so let's save that for another time. Or you can go to Seeking Alpha symbol page. Obviously, you can see all the ownership there.
I did just see that one of the C-level executives did execute on recent employment chain plan options. They bought I think 2,500 shares at $3 apiece. So obviously, they've got their nice little deals, but I was looking into that a little bit. And the founders, the last name, oh, shoot, I knew this. I was looking them all up this morning. Put me on the spot here. Dutter, I think his last name, Andrew Dudum. Sorry, Dudum. Andrew Dudum, if you guys want to go look them up.
So, Austin, obviously, we're going to get on out of here. Let everybody go enjoy their Thanksgiving. Go check out Austin, Cash Flow Freaks. Thank you for giving us the rundown on the stock.
Austin Hankwitz: Yes, man, this was a blast. No, I really appreciated this. I think what's fun too is like, there are so many companies out there that I don't know about that people drop into the chat. There are companies that are on my radar that I might have seen somewhere, and I just kind of keep tabs on it. And the ones that actually, we're keeping tabs on the one that I'm thankful for, right, but actually doing pretty good after their SPAC from a fundamental perspective, I want to share with you all.
So this was really fun. Definitely go, check it out. They do not pay a dividend, Mohamad [ph]. They are still in that hyper growth mode. But yeah, go, check it out some research, right? This is what we're all trying to have a conversation, have some fun, and everyone enjoy your Thanksgiving, super thankful for everyone coming in every single week to hang out with us. This show has been so much fun.
Daniel Snyder: Vita just bought 9 shares of Hims.
Austin Hankwitz: It bought 9 shares. All right. We are fellow shareholders.
Daniel Snyder: Obviously, this is not an investment advice, guys. So if you're getting in this, know that there's the risk, obviously. But, yeah, it was a great rundown. Obviously, I want to go back real quick to Gian. What do you think of BITO? I think it's the ProShares Bitcoin. Obviously, it's moving in tandem. Pretty correlated to Bitcoin's price. So, obviously, everything we said about crypto poised over to that as well.
Austin Hankwitz: Well, it's – yeah, just be sure, like, if you want Bitcoin exposure, buy Bitcoin, don't buy it through some third-party exchange or some other BITO or Grayscale or things like nature. So that's my perspective. But again that's only so maybe it's your time. I don't know, right? And locksmith assured, and not your wallet, I'm sorry, not your keys, not your coins.
Daniel Snyder: Something like that. I don't know. I don't have that problem because I don't want to invest in it. So that's what it is. All right, everyone. Happy Thanksgiving if you're here in the States. We'll see you next Wednesday. Same time right here, 12 PM Eastern. And thank you if you're listening on the podcast.
Just a reminder, head on over to Apple Podcasts. Even if you don't listen to her there, if you don't mind, give us a star rating review. And I can tell you, I’m biased. I'm biased. I think it should be five stars, but that's just me. I mean, but leave us a review. Let us know what you think. And obviously, we'll see you next week. Josh, let's get on out of here.