Baby Bear Done, Mama Bear Next

Steven Jon Kaplan profile picture
Steven Jon Kaplan
3.37K Followers

Summary

  • As we transition from the first to the second year of a three-year U.S. equity bear market, we are likely to have a similar transition as we had experienced in 2000 to 2001.
  • Throughout 2022, the U.S. dollar, emerging market securities, and highly speculative assets (think cryptocurrencies) also behaved as they generally do during the first year of major bear markets.
  • Expect U.S. Treasuries and VIX to surge sharply higher during the first half of 2023, partly to compensate for their overdone 2022 weaknesses.

Uncertainty business Global finance crisis investment investing managing risk in risk asset analyzing financial chart trading invest data price crypto currency market graph

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All we really need to know we learned in kindergarten, including the story of Goldilocks and the Three Bears. 2021 was Goldilocks and 2022 was Baby Bear, so 2023 will be Mama Bear and 2024 will be Papa

S&P value versus growth relative total return since 1975

This article was written by

Steven Jon Kaplan profile picture
3.37K Followers
Steven Jon Kaplan began TrueContrarian.com in August 1996 as a value-investing newsletter which since March 2020 has included two weekly 75-minute Zoom meetings. Steve provides long-term tax and investment planning. He has been trading since 1981 and handles separately managed accounts for qualified clients with a 20% performance fee on net profits and zero management fees. Steve has been quoted frequently by U.S. News and World Report, MarketWatch.com, and Barron's. Steve appeared on Market Watch cable TV with Stacey Delo and was interviewed by Alisa Parenti on Bloomberg and Tucker Silva on WRKO. He enjoys running with the New York Road Runners, composing and performing on piano and voice, writing stories, and traveling to unique places. Please let Steve know what you think of his financial ideas or any other worthwhile topic.

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