Moderna's Next $20B Franchise - Learning From Merck's Keytruda

Dec. 16, 2022 4:00 PM ETMerck & Co., Inc. (MRK), MRNAABBV46 Comments
Juxtaposed Ideas profile picture
Juxtaposed Ideas


  • Keytruda has proved to be MRK's leading sales driver, projected to contribute a significant 35.38% of FY2022 revenues at $20.9B.
  • Given the early clinical success of MRNA and Keytruda combo, we reckon the former has a similarly bright prospect through the next decade, aided by the flu and RSV vaccines.
  • Combined with MRNA's robust balance sheet and zero debt, it remains well-poised for the deceleration of COVID-19 vaccine demand, prior to the successful commercialization of its pipeline by 2025.
  • MRK will be an excellent example of MRNA's forward success indeed, though, at current valuations, both are over-valued with a minimal margin of safety for next-decade portfolio growth.
  • Investors will be prudent to wait for moderate digestion through 2023, as China's reopening cadence and the Fed's raised terminal rates trigger more short-term volatilities.

Cancer Vaccine Research Concept Vaccine and Syringe on Graphics

asbe/iStock via Getty Images

Investment Thesis

It might seem a stretch to assume that Moderna's (NASDAQ:MRNA) mRNA-4157 (or any other oncology pipelines) would achieve the same success as Merck & Co's (NYSE:MRK) Keytruda. However, we reckon the same

MRNA Projected Revenue, Net Income ( in billion $ ) %, EBIT %, EPS, FCF %, and Net Debt

S&P Capital IQ

MRK Projected Revenue, Net Income ( in billion $ ) %, EBIT %, EPS, FCF %, Dividend, and Net Debt

S&P Capital IQ

MRNA YTD EV/Revenue and P/E Valuations

S&P Capital IQ

MRK YTD EV/Revenue and P/E Valuations

S&P Capital IQ

This article was written by

Juxtaposed Ideas profile picture
I am a full-time analyst interested in a wide range of stocks. With my unique insights and knowledge, I hope to provide other investors with a contrasting view of my portfolio, given my particular background.Prior to Seeking Alpha, I worked as a professionally trained architect in a private architecture practice, with a focus on public and healthcare projects. My qualifications include:- Qualified Person with the Board of Architects, Singapore.- Master's in Architecture from the National University of Singapore.- Bachelor in Arts from the National University of Singapore.If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me via a direct message on Seeking Alpha or leave a comment on one of my articles.

Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of MRNA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: The analysis is provided exclusively for informational purposes and should not be considered professional investment advice. Before investing, please conduct personal in-depth research and utmost due diligence, as there are many risks associated with the trade, including capital loss.

Recommended For You

Comments (46)

To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.
Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.
If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.