GLD: $5,000 Bitcoin Could Be A 2023 Black Swan

Dec. 16, 2022 12:48 PM ETSPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)IAU, BTC-USD24 Comments


  • Investing is all about seeing the 2nd order and nonlinear catalysts.
  • Most gold investors are familiar with the 1st order and linear catalysts for a gold bull thesis such as a weakening dollar and negative real interest rates.
  • A top 2023 black swan event is another 70% drop in Bitcoin prices to ~$5000 according to research from Standard Chartered Bank.
  • And such a price crash may create a 2nd order catalyst for gold and push its price to $2,250 or above.
  • Both the SPDR Gold Trust ETF and the iShares GoldTrust ETF offer investors convenient gold exposure.
  • This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Envision Early Retirement. Learn More »

3D figure stands and tries to decide which road to follow leading to petrol, cryptocurrency and gold



In investing, linear thinking is easy and pretty much useless. It only allows you to see what others are seeing too. The key is all about nonlinear thinking and seeing 2nd order effects. And it is the

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** Disclosure** I am associated with Envision Research

I am an economist by training, with a focus on financial economics. After I completed my PhD, I have been professionally working as a quantitative modeler, with a focus on the mortgage market, commercial market, and the banking industry for more than a decade. And at the same time, I have been managing several investment accounts for my family for the past 15 years, going through two market crashes and an incredible long bull market in between. 

My writing interests are mostly asset allocation and ETFs, particularly those related to the overall market, bonds, banking and financial sectors, and housing markets. I have been a long time SA reader, and am excited to become a more active participator in this wonderful community! 

Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of IAU either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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