The Surprising S&P Stock Returns After A Fed Pause

Tom Madell profile picture
Tom Madell


  • A long Fed pause, hopefully in 2023, might lead to surprising stock returns based on the effect of such pauses over the past 25 years.
  • There have been five such pauses of over a year after the Fed began either to raise rates, such as now, or to drop them.
  • In each case, the market showed outstanding gains during the paused period.
  • We don't know when, or if the Fed will take a long pause during the current rising rate cycle, but if they do, investors will, in all likelihood, do quite well.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell Delivers Semiannual Monetary Report At Senate Hearing

Win McNamee

Many hope that the Fed will stop raising rates some time in 2023. Fed officials suggest that it takes up to one year to assess the effect of prior rate increases, so in order not to overly increase rates, likely

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Tom Madell profile picture
Tom Madell, Ph.D., is the publisher of Mutual Fund/ETF Research Newsletter, a free newsletter which began publication in 1999 with thousands of readers. It has become one of the most popular mutual fund/ETF newsletters on the internet, as shown here. His site has been named as one of the "Top 12 Investment Newsletters Focusing on Mutual Funds" at , an important fund information provider, under "Fund Newsletter". Also, recently his Newsletter was recognized as one of 5 expert mutual fund resources worth following offering free, and, in its case, particularly "unbiased, useful, and original advice" at .He is also a researcher/writer/investor whose articles have appeared on hundreds of websites, including the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Morningstar and in the international media.His articles have been among the most popular among those posted on the website by non-Morningstar employed contributors.His recommendations have an outstanding, long-standing record of success . His complete list of former articles can be accessed at

Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of VFIAX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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