The Weekly Breakout Forecast continues my doctoral research analysis on MDA breakout selections over more than 7 years. This high frequency breakout subset of the different portfolios I regularly analyze has now reached 290 weeks of public selections as part of this ongoing live forward-testing research. The frequency of 10%+ returns in a week is averaging over 4x the broad market averages in the past 5+ years.
In 2017, the sample size began with 12 stocks, then 8 stocks in 2018, and at members' request since 2020, I now generate only 4 selections each week. In addition 2 Dow 30 picks are provided, as well as a new active ETF portfolio that competes against a signal ETF model. Monthly Growth & Dividend MDA breakout stocks continue to beat the market each year as well. I offer 11 top models of short and long-term value and momentum portfolios that have beaten the S&P 500 since my trading studies were made public.
We are coming to the end of an extremely difficult trading year that has given all my models their most challenging tests ever. They have performed very well in this challenging market, especially if you follow the momentum gauge signals. All new portfolio selections for 2023 will begin next week!!
Momentum Gauges® Stoplight ahead of Week 52. All the Momentum Gauge trackers have turned negative starting December 5th after the longest positive streak since November 2021. Even the monthly gauges are negative after 2 months positive. Continue with caution into the new year.
As a reminder, much greater detail is covered live every day in the Chat Rooms with current charts and signals. If you are not reviewing the latest charts and updates, you could be missing out.
Daily Momentum Gauges continue negative ahead of the new year on below average holiday trading volume.
Weekly Momentum Gauges continue negative after the longest positive signal for 2022 of 6 consecutive weeks. Negative momentum is at the highest levels since September.
So far YTD 2022 there are 130 picks in 51 weeks beating the S&P 500. 105 picks are beating the S&P 500 by over 10%+ in double digits. Leading MDA gainers include (TUSK) +74.4%, (CLFD) +54.2%, (FUTU) 52.2%, (MNRL) +50.4%, (VIPS) +54.8%, (RES) +92.8%, (TDW) +196.9%, (TAL) +42.6%, (VRDN) +129.7%, (ZYXI) +74.8%, (WVE) +114.9%.
Despite such high negative momentum conditions all year, 54 picks in 51 weeks have gained at least 9.9% in less than a week. Additionally, 111 picks in 50 weeks have gained over 5% in less than a week in these high frequency breakout selections, despite many shortened holiday weeks.
Additional background, measurements, and high frequency breakout records on the Weekly MDA Breakout model is here: Value And Momentum MDA Breakouts +70.5% In 52 Weeks: Final 2021 Year End Report Card
These are highly significant statistical results that are further improved by following the Momentum Gauge signals with only 15 positive trading weeks this year. Worst case minimal returns following the MG trading signals are beating the S&P 500 YTD by +20.76%.
In addition to timing MDA breakout stock picks for the best returns, the gauges are used for live ETF bull/bear timing signals with strong results.
Historical MDA Breakout minimal buy/hold returns are at +70.5% YTD when trading only in the positive weeks consistent with the positive Momentum Gauges® signals. Remarkably, the frequency streak of 10% gainers within a 4- or 5-day trading week continues at highly statistically significant levels above 80% not counting frequent multiple 10%+ gainers in a single week.
Longer term many of these selections join the V&M Multibagger list now at 112 weekly picks with over 100%+ gains, 50 picks over 200%+, 18 picks over 500%+ and 11 picks with over 1000%+ gains since January 2019 such as:
More than 300 stocks have gained over 10% in a 5-day trading week since this MDA testing began in 2017. A frequency comparison chart is at the end of this article. Readers are cautioned that these are highly volatile stocks that may not be appropriate for achieving your long term investment goals: How to Achieve Optimal Asset Allocation
The picks for next week consist of 2 Energy, 1 Healthcare, and 1 Technology sector stocks. These stocks are measured from release to members in advance every Friday morning near the open for the best gains. Prior selections may be doing well, but for research purposes I deliberately do not duplicate selections from the prior week. These selections are based on MDA characteristics from my research, including strong money flows, positive sentiment, and strong fundamentals -- but readers are cautioned to follow the Momentum Gauges® for the best results.
Noble Corporation - Energy / Oil & Gas Drilling
Price Target: $51/share (Analyst Consensus + Technical See my FAQ #20)
|Dec-23-22 11:30AM||Oil Rig Action Moves Offshore and Overseas The Wall Street Journal|
|Dec-22-22 05:14PM||Noble Corporation plc Completes Refinancing of Syndicated Bank Term Loan PR Newswire|
|Dec-04-22 05:02AM||2 Top Energy Stocks to Buy Right Now Motley Fool|
|Nov-09-22 07:27AM||Noble Third Quarter 2022 Earnings: Beats Expectations Simply Wall St.|
|Nov-02-22 09:00PM||NOBLE CORPORATION PLC ANNOUNCES THIRD QUARTER 2022 RESULTS AND SHARE REPURCHASE AUTHORIZATION PR Newswire|
|Oct-31-22 10:01AM||Noble shareholder returns have been respectable, earning 41% in 1 year Simply Wall St.|
(Source: Company Resources)
Noble Corporation plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an offshore drilling contractor for the oil and gas industry worldwide. The company provides contract drilling services to the oil and gas industry through its fleet of mobile offshore drilling units. It operates 19 offshore drilling units consisting of 11 floaters and eight jackups.
Expro Group Holdings - Energy / Oil & Gas Equipment
Price Target: $22/share (Analyst Consensus + Technical See my FAQ #20)
|Dec-21-22 06:56PM||Analyst Report: Expro Group Holdings N.V. Morningstar Research|
|Dec-01-22 03:00AM||Expro Strengthens North Sea Position With Integrated Well Intervention and Integrity Contract for Apache Business Wire|
|Nov-03-22 07:00AM||Expro Group Holdings N.V. Announces Third Quarter 2022 Results Business Wire|
|Oct-20-22 07:00AM||Expro Group Holdings N.V. Schedules Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Release and Conference Call Business Wire|
|Oct-17-22 04:30AM||Expro Wins Best Health, Safety, Environment/Sustainable Development Offshore Award Business Wire|
|Oct-13-22 04:00AM||Expro Wins Funding for Carbon-reducing Technology Development Business Wire +6.64%|
(Source: Company Resources)
Expro Group Holdings N.V. engages in the provision of energy services in North and Latin America, Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The company provides well construction services, such as technology solutions in drilling, tubular running services, and cementing and tubulars; and well management services, including well flow management, subsea well access, and well intervention and integrity services. It serves exploration and production companies in onshore and offshore environments in approximately 60 countries with approximately 100 locations.
First, be sure to follow the Momentum Gauges® when applying the same MDA breakout model parameters to only 30 stocks on the Dow Index. Conditions have delivered the worst first half to the stock market since 1970. Second, these selections are made without regard to market cap or the below-average volatility typical of mega-cap stocks that may produce good results relative to other Dow 30 stocks. The most recent picks of weekly Dow selections in pairs for the last 5 weeks:
|Symbol||Company||Current % return from selection Week|
|MRK||Merck & Co.||+2.83%|
|(MRK)||Merck & Co.||+1.65%|
Technical conditions continue negative for the 30 stocks on the DJIA as all the Momentum Gauges have turned negative in December.
If you are looking for a much broader selection of large cap breakout stocks, I recommend these long term portfolios. The new mid-year selections were released to members to start July:
Piotroski-Graham enhanced value -
Growth & Dividend Mega cap breakouts -
These long-term selections are significantly outperforming many major hedge funds and all the hedge fund averages since inception. Consider the actively managed ARK Innovation fund down -67% YTD, Tiger Global Management -58% YTD.
Chevron is rebounding this week on increasing crude oil prices with more indicators turning positive for breakout conditions back toward prior highs. Analysts have most recently downgraded in December to Underperform with price targets ranging from $177 to $190/share. Price is likely to retest prior highs around $190/share as oil prices increase again.
As I have documented before from my research over the years, these MDA breakout picks were designed as high frequency gainers.
These documented high frequency gains in less than a week continue into 2020 at rates more than four times higher than the average stock market returns against comparable stocks with a minimum $2/share and $100 million market cap. The enhanced gains from further MDA research in 2020 are both larger and more frequent than in previous years in every category. ~ The 2020 MDA Breakout Report Card
The frequency percentages remain very similar to returns documented here on Seeking Alpha since 2017 and at rates that greatly exceed the gains of market returns by 2x and as much as 5x in the case of 5% gains.
The 2021 and 2020 breakout percentages with 4 stocks selected each week.
MDA selections are restricted to stocks above $2/share, $100M market cap, and greater than 100k avg daily volume. Penny stocks well below these minimum levels have been shown to benefit greatly from the model but introduce much more risk and may be distorted by inflows from readers selecting the same micro-cap stocks.
These stocks continue the live forward-testing of the breakout selection algorithms from my doctoral research with continuous enhancements over prior years. These Weekly Breakout picks consist of the shortest duration picks of seven quantitative models I publish from top financial research that also include one-year buy/hold value stocks. Remember to follow the Momentum Gauges® in your investing decisions for the best results.
All the V&M portfolio models beat the market indices through the worst 6-month start since 1970 and through one of the worst years since the 2008 financial crisis. All new portfolios for 2023 will begin next week!!
The final 2021 returns for the different portfolio models from January of last year are shown below.
All the very best to you, stay safe and healthy and have a great week of trading!
JD Henning, PhD, MBA, CFE, CAMS
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Welcome! I am a Finance PhD, MBA, investment adviser, fraud examiner and certified anti-money laundering specialist with more than 30 years trading and investing stocks and other securities. I'm the founder of Value & Momentum Breakouts.
I'm JD Henning, the founder of Value & Momentum Breakouts. I've spent decades capturing many of the best ways to consistently beat the markets. I've earned degrees researching markets, and even more importantly, I've spent the time myself as a trader and investor. I am one of those unusual multi-millionaire, PhD's in finance, former Coast Guard officer with a bunch of certifications ranging from anti-money laundering specialist, investment adviser, to fraud examiner... who genuinely enjoys helping others do well in the markets. I'm bringing the fruits of my experience and research to this service. I am highly accessible to members to answer questions and give guidance.
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Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: I continue to follow the Market Momentum Gauge® and Sector Momentum Gauge® signals. I adjust my exposure ahead of weekends and holidays to minimize the risk from these high volatility 3x funds that may not be appropriate investments for your portfolio. Readers are highly encouraged to consider your own optimal asset allocation strategies to diversify risks and enhance returns. I have been mostly in cash this year with many weeks of negative Momentum Gauge signals.