The Weekly Breakout Forecast continues my doctoral research analysis on MDA breakout selections over more than 8 years. This high frequency breakout subset of the different portfolios I regularly analyze has now reached 290 weeks of public selections as part of this ongoing live forward-testing research. The frequency of 10%+ returns in a week is averaging over 4x the broad market averages in the past 5+ years.
In 2017, the sample size began with 12 stocks, then 8 stocks in 2018, and at members' request since 2020, I now generate only 4 selections each week. In addition, 2 Dow 30 picks are provided using the MDA methodology, but I highly recommend the monthly Growth & Dividend mega cap breakout portfolios if you are looking for larger cap selections beyond only 30 Dow stocks.
All new portfolio selections for 2023 begin now!! We have reached the end of an extremely difficult trading year that has given all my models their most challenging tests ever. The schedule of reports and forecast article for 2023 are here for your benefit.
All the Momentum Gauge trackers turned negative starting December 5th ending the longest positive streak in a year. Sectors are mixed but still mostly negative and the gauges continue to signal caution to start the new year.
As a reminder much greater detail is covered live every day in the Chat Rooms with current charts and signals. If you are not reviewing the latest charts and updates you could be missing out.
Weekly Momentum Gauges continue negative for the past 4 weeks after the longest positive signal for 2022 of 6 consecutive weeks.
The weekly breakout portfolios are shown below with their final 2022 returns. The ongoing competition between the Bounce/Lag Momentum model (from Prof Grant Henning, PhD Statistics) and MDA Breakout picks (from JD Henning, PhD Finance) are shown with/without using the Momentum Gauge trading signal. The per-week returns equalize the comparison where there was only 16 positive trading weeks this past year using the MDA trading signal (negative values below 40).
For 2022, there were 125 MDA breakout picks in 52 weeks that beat the S&P 500. 103 picks beat the S&P 500 by over 10%+ in double digits. Final top performing MDA stock picks over 30% for the year:
|Week of Selection||Stock Symbol||Gain from Selection|
For 2022, the worst market since 2008: 113 MDA picks gained over 5%, 52 picks over 10%, 22 picks over 15%, and 13 picks over 20% in less than week. These are statistically significant high frequency breakout results despite many shortened holiday weeks.
Longer term many of these selections join the V&M Multibagger list now at 113 weekly picks with over 100%+ gains, 49 picks over 200%+, 18 picks over 500%+ and 11 picks with over 1000%+ gains since January 2019 such as:
More than 300 stocks have gained over 10% in a 5-day trading week since this MDA testing began in 2017. Frequency comparison charts are at the end of this article. Readers are cautioned that these are highly volatile stocks that may not be appropriate for achieving your long-term investment goals: How to Achieve Optimal Asset Allocation
Historical MDA Breakout minimal buy/hold (worst case) returns have a compound average growth rate of 30.87% and cumulative minimum returns of +708.19% from 2017. The minimal cumulative returns for 2022 were -0.21%, average cumulative returns were +67.05%, and the best-case cumulative returns were +360.25%. The chart reflects the most conservative measurements adding each 52 weekly return in an annual portfolio simulation, though each weekly selection could also be compounded weekly.
2022 saw the highest volatility levels since the 2008 Financial Crisis with frequent mid-week selloffs from the peak. This was also the first year I can ever remember where every day of the week had more down days than up days. Recognizing these patterns AND following the gauges can greatly enhance your returns above my fixed, equal-weighted, buy/hold measurement without adjusting to adverse stock news or market patterns.
The picks for next week consist of 1 Energy, 2 Healthcare, and 1 Technology sector stocks. These stocks are measured from release to members in advance every Friday morning near the open for the best gains. Prior selections may be doing well, but for research purposes I deliberately do not duplicate selections from the prior week. These selections are based on MDA characteristics from my research, including strong money flows, positive sentiment, and strong fundamentals -- but readers are cautioned to follow the Momentum Gauges® for the best results.
DocGo Inc. - Healthcare / Medical Care Facilities
Price Target: $11/share (Analyst Consensus + Technical See my FAQ #20)
|Dec-29-22 07:35AM||DocGo Announces Stan Vashovsky to Continue to Serve as Chairman of its Board of Directors Business Wire|
|Dec-19-22 07:35AM||DocGo Awarded New Mobile Healthcare Contract in the UK Business Wire|
|Dec-06-22 07:35AM||DocGo Releases Annual ESG Report, Outlining Commitment to Ethical Mobile Healthcare Initiatives Business Wire|
|Nov-22-22 07:35AM||DocGo to Present at the Benchmark Companys Upcoming Discovery One-on-One Investor Conference Business Wire|
|Nov-14-22 07:35AM||DocGo Appoints Veteran Technology Human Resources Executive Vina Leite, MS, to its Board of Directors and Announces Key Leadership Promotions Business Wire +6.37%|
(Source: Company Resources)
DocGo, Inc. provides mobile health and medical transportation services for various health care providers in the United States and the United Kingdom. The company's transportation services include emergency response services; and non-emergency transport services comprise ambulance and wheelchair transportation services.
Permian Basin Royalty Trust - Energy / Oil & Gas E&P
Price Target: $32/share (Analyst Consensus + Technical See my FAQ #20)
|Dec-31-22 07:15AM||3 Oil & Gas Royalty Trusts With Exceptionally High Yields TheStreet.com|
|Dec-28-22 10:28PM||12 Best Performing Energy Stocks in 2022 Insider Monkey|
|Dec-19-22 11:30AM||PERMIAN BASIN ROYALTY TRUST ANNOUNCES DECEMBER CASH DISTRIBUTION PR Newswire|
|Dec-06-22 05:36PM||Top Oil and Gas Stocks Investopedia|
(Source: Company Resources)
Permian Basin Royalty Trust, an express trust, holds overriding royalty interests in various oil and gas properties in the United States. The company owns a 75% net overriding royalty interest in the Waddell Ranch properties comprising Dune, Judkins, McKnight, Tubb, Devonian, and Waddell fields located in Crane County, Texas.
First, be sure to follow the Momentum Gauges® when applying the same MDA breakout model parameters to only 30 stocks on the Dow Index. Second, these selections are made without regard to market cap or the below-average volatility typical of mega-cap stocks that may produce good results relative to other Dow 30 stocks. The most recent picks of weekly Dow selections in pairs for the last 5 weeks:
|Symbol||Company||Current % return from selection Week|
|(MRK)||Merck & Co.||+1.99%|
|MRK||Merck & Co.||+0.83%|
Technical conditions continue negative for the 30 stocks on the DJIA as all the Momentum Gauges turned negative in December.
If you are looking for a much broader selection of large cap breakout stocks, I recommend these long-term portfolios. The new 2023 selections have been released in the links below to start the New Year:
These long-term selections are significantly outperforming many major Hedge Funds and all the hedge fund averages since inception. Consider the actively managed ARK Innovation fund down -66.97% YTD, Tiger Global Management -58% YTD.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
JPMorgan is in early breakout conditions across all the technical indicators ahead of Q4 earnings January 13th. Net MFI inflows are strong with institutional buying increasing toward a consensus price target around 143/share.
As I have documented before from my research over the years, these MDA breakout picks were designed as high frequency gainers.
These documented high frequency gains in less than a week continue into 2020 at rates more than four times higher than the average stock market returns against comparable stocks with a minimum $2/share and $100 million market cap. The enhanced gains from further MDA research in 2020 are both larger and more frequent than in previous years in every category. ~ The 2020 MDA Breakout Report Card
The frequency percentages remain very similar to returns documented here on Seeking Alpha since 2017 and at rates that greatly exceed the gains of market returns by 2x and as much as 5x in the case of 5% gains.
The 2021 and 2020 breakout percentages with 4 stocks selected each week.
MDA selections are restricted to stocks above $2/share, $100M market cap, and greater than 100k avg daily volume. Penny stocks well below these minimum levels have been shown to benefit greatly from the model but introduce much more risk and may be distorted by inflows from readers selecting the same micro-cap stocks.
These stocks continue the live forward-testing of the breakout selection algorithms from my doctoral research with continuous enhancements over prior years. These Weekly Breakout picks consist of the shortest duration picks of seven quantitative models I publish from top financial research that also include one-year buy/hold value stocks. Remember to follow the Momentum Gauges® in your investing decisions for the best results.
All the V&M portfolio models beat the market indices through the worst 6 month start since 1970 and through the worst market year since the 2008 financial crisis. All new portfolios are starting for 2023!!
The final 2021 returns for the different portfolio models from January of last year are shown below.
All the very best to you, stay safe and healthy and have a Happy New Year!!
JD Henning, PhD, MBA, CFE, CAMS
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This article was written by
Welcome! I am a Finance PhD, MBA, investment adviser, fraud examiner and certified anti-money laundering specialist with more than 30 years trading and investing stocks and other securities. I'm the founder of Value & Momentum Breakouts.
I'm JD Henning, the founder of Value & Momentum Breakouts. I've spent decades studying how to get better returns in the market. I've earned degrees researching markets, and even more importantly, I've spent the time myself as a trader and investor. I am one of those unusual multi-millionaire, PhD's in finance, former Coast Guard officer with a bunch of certifications ranging from anti-money laundering specialist, investment adviser, to fraud examiner... who genuinely enjoys helping others do well in the markets. I'm bringing the fruits of my experience and research to this service. I am highly accessible to members to answer questions and give guidance.
It's been quite the start of the year for investors. My guess is, after a decade of good times in the market, you’re here looking for some guidance in how to navigate these volatile markets and the uncertainty of the coronavirus and inflationary conditions. You’re in the right place. For the past 5 years I’ve made my trading systems public and helped hundreds of my subscribers navigate and profit from every market downturn and breakout - including the coronavirus crash last year.
Value & Momentum Breakouts doesn't stop with the Momentum Gauges® and the Bull/Bear ETF strategy. The service is designed for investors who appreciate having easy access to quick picks from many top quantitative financial models across different types of investing strategies. Portfolios and selections cover all types of investments:
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I share my expertise by generating frequent Value & Momentum Breakout stock portfolios from the different financial algorithms across peer-reviewed financial literature. The best selection of stocks from these algorithms are applied to the Premium Portfolio, beating the S&P 500 for the 3rd straight year in a row with average annual gains of 32.98% through 2020.
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Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: I continue to follow the Market Momentum Gauge® and Sector Momentum Gauge® signals. I adjust my exposure ahead of weekends and holidays to minimize the risk from these high volatility 3x funds that may not be appropriate investments for your portfolio. Readers are highly encouraged to consider your own optimal asset allocation strategies to diversify risks and enhance returns. I remain mostly in cash from last year with many weeks of negative Momentum Gauge signals.