Academy Sports and Outdoors: Recent Performance Appears To Be Unsustainable

Logan Colhoun profile picture
Logan Colhoun


  • The pandemic created astronomical demand for sporting goods, as consumers used excess stimulus cash to fund outdoor activities.
  • Academy saw revenues surge ~18% and ~19% in 2020 and 2021, and net income margins nearly quadrupled from 2019 to 2021.
  • While Academy has strong financial metrics on a store basis, I suspect these will decline as consumer demand softens.
  • Management hinted that revenue/store could fall from $26.2 million to $20 million and that EBITDA/store could fall from $3.5 million to $1.4 million.
  • Management's plans to aggressively expand are not nearly as attractive when we look at store metrics that reflect future demand.

Sports balls on the field with yard line. Soccer ball, American football and Baseball in yellow glove on green grass. Outdoors


Executive Summary

I do not believe that an investment in Academy (NASDAQ:ASO) is a prudent decision, given the current price and incoming headwinds. I believe that recent performance is unsustainable, as most of the recent improvements have been driven by overall

Personal Consumption Expenditures

St. Louis FRED

Sporting Apparel Spend Since Covid


Academy Revenue Growth


Dick's Revenue Growth


Academy's EBITDA Margins


Dick's EBITDA Margins


Academy E-Commerce Penetration


Academy Private Brands

Academy Investor Relations

New Store Financials Academy

Academy Investor Presentation

Academy Growth Plans

Academy Investor Presentation

Academy Per Store Metrics


Academy Insider Trading

Academy Insider Trading Last 6 Months (Dataroma)

Dick's Insider Trading Last 6 Months

Dick's Insider Trading Last 6 Months (Dataroma)

Academy Valuation


This article was written by

Logan Colhoun profile picture
I'm a current Finance major at Texas A&M. I am the founder of Undergrads Invest and the Undergrads Invest podcast. I am a value investor who looks for high-quality companies that are trading at discounted valuations. I also enjoy special situations investing, where some sort of hard catalyst is creating a market inefficiency.

Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: I held Academy stock throughout the pandemic but recently sold it due to reasons detailed in my analysis.

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