Tesla: Looking Beyond A Likely Q4 Disappointment

Jan. 20, 2023 7:33 AM ETTesla, Inc. (TSLA)77 Comments
Cavenagh Research profile picture
Cavenagh Research


  • Tesla is expected to report results for the December quarter 2022 on January 25th.
  • I argue that investors should expect a disappointment as compared to current analyst estimates.
  • For Q4, Tesla delivered 'only' about 405,000 cars, which is almost 35,000 lower than what the company produced.
  • With discounts for Tesla's best-selling Model 3 being as high as 15%, it is unlikely that Tesla will maintain >15% EBIT margin.
  • Based on long-term estimates, however, I continue to calculate a fair implied price per share for TSLA equal to $294.19.

Tesla Service Center. Tesla designs and manufactures the Model S electric sedan IV



Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is down approximately 45% since the company last reported earnings results on October 19th 2022, as compared to a gain of 8% for the S&P 500 (SPY). A lot has been written

TSLA vs SPY 3m

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Tesla Q4 delivery/ production numbers

Tesla Q4 Delivery/ Production numbers

Tesla web traffic


Tesla Profit Margins

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Tesla earnings Q4 expectations

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Tesla revenue growth expectations

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Tesla valuation

Author's Assumptions and Calculations

This article was written by

Cavenagh Research profile picture
5y experience as an investment analyst for a major BB-Bank. Currently working towards the CFA charter. Passion for risk-assets (Growth, Contrarian, Emerging Market) ex-colleague and close friend of Investor Express

Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of TSLA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: Not financial advise.

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