Affirm: Can It Make It Through Macro Headwinds

Jan. 26, 2023 9:26 AM ETAffirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM)12 Comments
Bert Hochfeld profile picture
Bert Hochfeld


  • Affirm is one of the more controversial companies in the IT space.
  • The shares are down more than 90% from their high 15 months ago.
  • The company reduced its forecast when it last reported earnings in November.
  • I believe the company has a significantly differentiated set of demand drivers that are unknown or underappreciated by many investors and some analysts.
  • The company has pledged to reach and sustain non-GAAP profitability starting on 7/1/23, and I believe it has the tools and financial levers to fulfill that expectation.

Women holding a smartphone with icons of BNPL with online shopping icons technology. BNPL Buy now pay later online shopping concept.

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Affirm: Can it satisfy investors in a fraught environment

Investing in the fintech space has not been good for the performance of a portfolio during the past 14+ months. Supreme understatement, I suppose. Depending on the definition of fintech, most of

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Bert Hochfeld profile picture
Bert Hochfeld graduated with a degree in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and received an MBA from Harvard. Mr. Hochfeld has enjoyed a long career in the tech world, working for IBM, Memorex/Telex, Raytheon Data Systems, and BMC Software. Starting in the 1990s, Mr. Hochfeld worked as a sell-side analyst and won awards from the Wall Street Journal for his coverage of the software space. In 2001, Mr. Hochfeld formed his own independent research company, Hochfeld Independent Research Group, which provided research services to major institutions including Fidelity, Columbia Asset, SAC Capital, and many other prominent institutions and hedge funds. He also operated the Hepplewhite Fund, a hedge fund that specialized in technology investments. Hedge Fund Research, an independent 3rd party firm that specializes in ranking managers, rated the Hepplewhite Fund as the best performing small-cap fund for the 5 years ending in 2011. In 2012, Mr. Hochfeld was convicted of misappropriating funds from a hedge fund he operated. Mr. Hochfeld has published more than 500 articles on Seeking Alpha, all dealing with companies in the information technology space. Highly esteemed for his investment wisdom accumulated over decades, Mr. Hochfeld ranks in the top 0.1% of Tip Ranks analysts for his selection of information technology stocks and their subsequent successes.

Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AFRM either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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