Chipotle: Growth In The Fast Food Industry Looks Too Expensive


  • Chipotle is a fast-growing casual restaurant chain who owns their stores.
  • Growth is driven by both new locations and increasing same-store sales, with analysts forecasting CAGR of 14% in the next 5 years. This translates to an FCF yield of 9%.
  • The business has faced many opportunities and threats, such as e-commerce delivery, supply chain issues etc. and has come out on top in every instance.
  • When compared to its peers, Chipotle performs fairly well. It has similar profitability but far superior growth.
  • Unfortunately, Chipotle is too expensive today. Given the quality of the business, it would be unwise to believe it is a short opportunity.

Chipotle restaurant sign in historic old town of South Carolina French quarter on King street with people


Company description:

Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. As of September 30, 2022, it had approximately 3,100 restaurants in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and rest of Europe.


Data by YCharts


Chipotle - Financials (Tikr Terminal)


Avg. restaurant sales (Quarterly investor packs)


Analyst forecasts (Tikr Terminal)


Peer comparison (Tikr Terminal)


Peer group valuation (Tikr Terminal)

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