XPeng: The Risk/Reward Has Now Become Favorable

Feb. 07, 2023 2:13 PM ETXPeng Inc. (XPEV), XPNGF2 Comments
Cavenagh Research profile picture
Cavenagh Research


  • XPeng could be well positioned to capture an attractive share of the fast-growing and large market for EVs.
  • Especially given the company's focus on innovation and cost competitiveness.
  • XPeng missed its 2022 delivery target due to COVID-19 restrictions in China.
  • With reset expectations, the company may now deliver upside as compared to sentiment.
  • Personally, I value XPeng stock based on a residual earnings model and calculate a fair value for XPEV stock of $14.23/share.

Xpeng Motors car store with customers

Robert Way


In May 2022, I argued that XPeng (NYSE:XPEV) was overvalued and I advised against investing in the Chinese EV maker at levels above a $9.04/share target price. Now, with the glamour of electric vehicles under pressure, and XPEV

XPEV vs SPY 12 months performance

Seeking Alpha

EV market global expectations


XPEV valuation

Author's EPS estimates; Author's calculation

Xpev valuation sensitivity table

Author's EPS estimates; Author's calculation

This article was written by

Cavenagh Research profile picture
5y experience as an investment analyst for a major BB-Bank. Currently working towards the CFA charter. Passion for risk-assets (Growth, Contrarian, Emerging Market) ex-colleague and close friend of Investor Express

Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of XPEV, TSLA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: not financial advise

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