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Still Avoiding C.H. Robinson

Patrick Doyle profile picture
Patrick Doyle


  • In some ways, the financial results were alright, and I think the dividend is reasonably well covered. The problem is the large amount of debt rolling this year.
  • In spite of this, the shares aren't objectively cheap, in my view. For that reason, I would recommend continuing to avoid the shares.
  • Investors are receiving 225 basis points less from the dividend in this risky business than they would from the much less risky 10-Year Treasury Note.

Aerial View of Container Ship


It's been about 8 ½ months since I recommended investors continue to avoid C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (NASDAQ:CHRW), and in that time, the shares are down about 6.7% against a loss of about 2.65% for the S&P 500. The company has

This article was written by

Patrick Doyle profile picture
I'm a quant investment newsletter writer who marries fundamental analysis with the latest research in momentum. Over the past few years, I’ve developed a piece of software that helps me track the level of optimism and pessimism embedded in stock price. I seek to challenge the assumptions embedded in price by profitably exploiting the disconnect between what the market thinks and what is a likely outcome. I invest in those companies that have a greater than average chance of giving us all a surprise in the next few months.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Comments (3)

RatherBeWithMyDog profile picture
Thanks as always for the great piece @Patrick Doyle. I’ve recently started looking at adding an asset-light logistics name to my dividend growth portfolio to complement my positions in UNP and TFI. I keep coming back to EXPD over CHRW; price and risk notwithstanding, how much overlap is there between the names, and is there a need to own both? This is likely a crude and overly simplistic assessment, but is it fair to say—at a cursory level—EXPD gives you more exposure to ocean and air (and hence Asia) while CHRW gives you more trucking exposure (and hence North America). I’m looking through a long-term macro lens with regards to re-shoring trends (if they play out in as pronounced a manner as some believe).
Patrick Doyle profile picture
You're very welcome, and I've got to write that your username expresses my view on most days. Dogs have most of our virtues, and none of our vices.
Anyway, those are interesting questions, and I'm going to chew 'pon them if you don't mind. Rather than give a half assed answer, I'd ask you to please stay tuned, so I can give the answer my whole ass.
I do think re-shoring to North America is pretty much inevitable, for all of the reasons Zeihan, among others, suggest. I don't agree with everything he says, but he's right about stuff returning to North America.
Please stay tuned.
RatherBeWithMyDog profile picture
@Patrick Doyle Ha! Yes, indeed; that’s my 3-year-old Vizsla and she’s an absolute joy. Among her strongest virtues is her uncanny ability to always sense when I’ve had a shitty day, yet never feeling the need to ask if I want to talk about it 😀

No rush at all on responding; it was admittedly a big and meandering question.
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