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Tesla Investor Day Falls Flat

Mar. 01, 2023 10:24 PM ETTesla, Inc. (TSLA)1.74K Comments
Bill Maurer profile picture
Bill Maurer


  • Tesla announces new gigafactory will be located in Mexico.
  • No $25,000 vehicle was shown off at this event.
  • Shares lost more than 5% in after-hours trading.
Tesla Service Center. Tesla designs and manufactures the Model S electric sedan IV


On Wednesday, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) held its highly anticipated Investor Day. Since the event was announced a few months ago, everyone has been waiting to hear about the company's next generation vehicle platform, as well as other items that will be key for

This article was written by

Bill Maurer profile picture
I am a market enthusiast and part-time trader. I started writing for Seeking Alpha in 2011, and it has been a tremendous opportunity and learning experience. I have been interested in the markets since elementary school, and hope to pursue a career in the investment management industry. I have been active in the markets for several years, and am primarily focused on long/short equities. I hold a Bachelor of Science Degree from Lehigh University, where I double majored in Finance and Accounting, with a minor in History. My major track focused on Investments and Financial Analysis. While at Lehigh, I was the Head Portfolio Manager of the Investment Management Group, a student group that manages three portfolios, one long/short and two long only. I have had two internships, one a summer internship at a large bank, and another helping to manage the Lehigh University Endowment for nearly a year. Disclaimer: Bill reminds investors to always do their own due diligence on any investment, and to consult their own financial adviser or representative when necessary. Any material provided is intended as general information only, and should not be considered or relied upon as a formal investment recommendation.

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Comments (1,742)

SimonR2 profile picture
"In an article I had published recently, I discussed how previous statements around full self-driving ("FSD") capabilities and robo-taxis could lead to significant liabilities for Tesla down the road"
And now 360,000 vehicles recalled (legally it's a recall before a Tesla fanbois jumps in that the car doesn't have to actually go to a dealer) for the failings in it's current FSD software - two quote "exceed speed limits or travel through intersections in an unlawful or unpredictable manner increases the risk of a crash."
@SimonR2 Your really that uninformed? The recall was fixed. They had to train FSD to come to a full stop at stop signs. It learned that behavior from FSD drivers as ~ 70% of drivers roll through stop signs.

They showed FSD the drivers that actually stopped and the software was deployed briefly after the issue was raised.

Now the NHSTA is understanding that this is unusual behavior of coming to a full stop causes problems because that behavior is abnormal compared to humans.

So the FSD issue was resolved months ago and you continue to spread misinformation
Truthteller profile picture
@EV_Tom “They had to train FSD to come to a full stop at stop signs. It learned that behavior from FSD drivers as ~ 70% of drivers roll through stop signs.
They showed FSD the drivers that actually stopped and the software was deployed briefly after the issue was raised.”

I’m confused. I thought the older version was code and the newer one is trained by drivers? Which is it?


2 yr. ago
Interesting parts from this:

Chronology :

- On October 20, 2020, firmware release 2020.40.4.10 was released through an over-the-air (“OTA”) firmware update to vehicles in the limited early access FSD Beta population. The release introduced the “rolling stop” functionality.

- On January 10, 2022, and again on January 19, 2022, Tesla met with NHTSA to discuss the functionality, including operating parameters.

- On January 20, 2022, a recall determination was voluntarily made to disable the functionality, beginning with

firmware release 2021.44.30.15 and newer releases.

Tesla will disable the “rolling stop” functionality on affected vehicles, starting with firmware release 2021.44.30.15. Firmware release 2021.44.30.15 is expected to begin deployment OTA to affected vehicles in early February 2022
Seems the "California roll" (is that what it's called? I'm a brit, so your whole approach to cross junctions is weird to us :P) will be removed for all in the beta.

The logic check for when it's allowed seems pretty solid, so it's interesting this meeting and decision was done.

The “rolling stop” functionality is designed to allow the vehicle to travelthrough an all-way-stop intersection without coming to a complete stop whenseveral operating conditions are first met. The required conditions include:

The functionality must be enabled within the FSD Beta Profile settings; and
The vehicle must be approaching an all-way stop intersection; and
The vehicle must be traveling below 5.6mph; and
No relevant moving cars are detected near the intersection; and
No relevant pedestrians or bicyclists are detected near the intersection; and
There is sufficient visibility for the vehicle while approaching theintersection; and
All roads entering the intersection have a speed limit of 30 mph or less.If all the above conditions are met, only then will the vehicle travel through theall-way-stop intersection at a speed from 0.1 mph up to 5.6 mph without firstcoming to a complete stop. If any of the above conditions are not met, thefunctionality will not activate and the vehicle will come to a complete stop.
@Truthteller The older version relied on code and NN. It is my understanding this function was NN. The future is v12 which is trained by showing the vehicle behaviors.

The point of topic was that FSD was recalled and I clarified it was already fixed and added that the NHSTA is exploring if this was a good idea since full stop behavior is unusual behavior and could do more harm then good.

Thanks for taking the time to post the behavior. The hard coded rules in v11 override the NN While your motive was purely to say i had made a mistake your goal was not achieved and was also a change of subject.

Oops have to run and make more profit on TSLA. Its like a money printer. You should consider investing and or trading
Byd easily outsells Tesla in china. Also with the usa sanctioning and restricting China companies in the USA it is increasingly likely that China will tighten the screws on Tesla in China
@omega2345 BYD hit 500K cars 7 years before Tesla. Glad to see they are finally hitting volume. Hopefully they can start being more profitable. Tesla earned 3 times more than BYD in q2 this year.
solucky profile picture

" Tesla earned 3 times more than BYD in q2 this year. "

BYD dont collect 4 billion ( estimated ) from Bidens tesla law.
Also in europe BYD is still more or less outlawed without local production.

BYDs cars are misspriced in europe.....but if we look to leasing deals it seems they still adjust the pricing
@solucky I'm just reporting reality. How did tesla get 4 billion in q2? Are you claiming that out of the 25 billion 4 billion was from the government? That's a bit of a stretch isn't it? Do you mean that the customers received money off that drove sales.
I just read an eye opening article from Reuters on Chinese Car industry’s current dynamics, with huge overcapacity, price cuts, chopped wages, workers in a big hurt.

Pain is spreading everywhere with dented domestic demand and suppliers having a hard time meeting calls for constant cost reductions. Where this story goes, no easy way to predict, except that problems will persist and major capacity contraction is absolute certainty.

Tesla will have to compete fiercely, even while furiously lowering costs and pricing to remain competitive. What will not help : Chinese economy being in a flux, consumer confidence low, automotive workers’ low morale with substandard pay structure. A classic case of race to the bottom just to survive.

@nkvbradenton record sales in China this quarter to date. Demand for new model 3 is huge. Cogs continued to be reduced in q2.

I believe you may need to broaden your research sources.

From the article…..
“In the first seven months of 2023, China sold 11.4 million cars at home and exported 2 million, but growth came almost entirely from abroad. Exports leapt 81% but domestic sales only crept 1.7% higher - despite the widespread price cuts.”
Truthteller profile picture

I agree . I believe you may need to broaden your research sources.

There’s a lot more info than tesla blogs and YouTube
Here in Texas trump and trump supporter musk country the governor just signed legislation mandating both an initial 400 fee on any ev plus an additional 200 registration fee. Makes you wonder how smart or not so snark musk is
solucky profile picture

" 400 fee on any ev plus an additional 200 registration fee"

To compensate gasoline taxes alone that fee must be closer to 1000/ year here
@solucky Wow, the economics of owning a Tesla must be extremely favorable for you!
solucky profile picture

" Wow, the economics of owning a Tesla must be extremely favorable for you!"

Some incentives are reduced but politicans just prepare another additional 10 000 EUR program.

The grand total should exceed 25K / BEV than.

27K for an 14 KW solar roof + battery + charger
37K for an decent " local range " BEV

Still 64 - 70 K total but economics would be

4500 BEV cash subsidies
2500 road tax excemptions ( 10 years )
3K emission credits selling
14K tax free full solar electricity / 200kkm )
10K Solar cash subsidies
20K electrcity bill reduction ( 20 years )

54K in subsidies , incentives and mandates
Byd just had blowout earnings while musk is busy supporting trump who by the way supports a political party that hates The ev. Long byd short musk
@omega2345 I agree and would not invest in TSLA. I shorted when it hit $400 and did very well.

I asked this political question in Bard - Tesla sales by party - and got this reply... According to CNN, 38% of Tesla buyers have identified as Democrats, and 30% have said they're Republicans. This is slightly less “liberal” than EV buyers overall, who skew 41% Democratic to 27% Republican.

Elon Musk, the world's richest man, has become more and more Republican over the last six months.

In 2022, he stated that he had "voted overwhelmingly for Democrats, historically" but intended to vote Republican in an upcoming election.

His recent takeover of Twitter has led to a more favorable view among Republicans of his other companies, including Tesla.
@Tell_it_like_is "His recent takeover of Twitter has led to a more favorable view among Republicans of his other companies, including Tesla."

That's too bad. Purchases of a vehicle should be based on whether a vehicle works for an individual, not the politics of the CEO. Though I fear you are right, I don't like it.
@omega2345 Blowout q resulted in $700 Million in profit compared to tesla's 2.7 Billion in profit for the same period. How is that a great result?
BEV market share in the U.S. fell from 7.3% in Q1 to 7.2% in Q2 of this year. It wouldn't be an issue except that during Q2 there were big price cuts (starting with Tesla) and inventory has swollen to more than 100 days for the "traditional" dealer based sales model and gone from a few days to a few weeks for Tesla, even though they're supposed to be "build to order."

It's not a good sign. There's been a lot in the news lately about exaggerated BEV range numbers from Tesla and electric car fires that fire departments can't put out. So people are less willing to switch to a BEV.

It looks like it's capping BEV market share at about what it is now. A little higher if Tesla and other can keep cutting prices. That's bad news for people worried about global warming.

There was a hope that BEV sales in the U.S. would make it to the 10% they've reached globally, in the next couple of years. It's no longer looking likely. BEV sales in China have been falling, mainly due to fear of fire (vs. the U.S. where it seems to be range anxiety - Tesla being caught being "optimistic" came at a bad time).
solucky profile picture

" There was a hope that BEV sales in the U.S. would make it to the 10% they've reached globally, in the next couple of years "

If i look to Germany 20 000 $ incentives are needed to choose BEV over ICE.....unfortunately you need homesolar to come close and the most germans dont have an own house.
@solucky "If i look to Germany 20 000 $ incentives are needed to choose BEV over ICE.....unfortunately you need homesolar to come close and the most germans dont have an own house. "

Not only that, but what is going to happen in Germany if they have a tough winter? Electricity costs will rise a lot. France, on the other hand, has nuclear. I don't know how much reserve they have, but they are in a much better situation than Germany.
solucky profile picture

" I don't know how much reserve they have, but they are in a much better situation than Germany."

They have other problems...aging nuke with criticall safety issues.

And the drought like 2022...no cooling water = no cheap nuke electricity.

A reason that germany was again a net export country of electricity..
T3SLA profile picture
So it seems BYD may have faked sales in December 2022 in order to claim the expiring EV tax credits. The problem is that not everyone owes enough taxes to get the full credit, so in claiming the credits and then lowering the price to the eventual customers BYD has committed fraud. (correct me if I'm wrong) but If a customer only owed $1000 in taxes for the year, they would not have gotten the full credit. But since BYD claimed these tax credits by selling to an intermediary, they have essentially defrauded the government by passing on the full tax credit to someone who would not have qualified. It seems like the penalty would be that they will be required to restate earnings for the years in question, plus pay back the government for the fraudulent tax credits, plus pay any penalties/fines. It seems to me this is the real reason Berkshire Hathaway sold its BYD shares. My prediction: January 2024 BYD will announce they are restating earnings and will report massive losses.

I wonder why the CFO left? Was it planned? Pushed out? When a stock performs like TESLA's has, there is so much money yet to be made on SBC grants. May be his contract stipulates that he keeps everything he has been granted.
@nkvbradenton do you have a $ number? How much money is enough?
solucky profile picture

" I wonder why the CFO left? Was it planned? Pushed out? "

Who knows ..its all speculation.

Maybee Elon ask him to CREATE the quarterly reports a bit more and he feel not comfortable.
“How much money is enough?”

That is so much subjective and personal. But if I were 39 years old, I wouldn’t call it quits this soon.
Byd is the world leader in ev design and development The stock is far cheaper yet has much greater potential then Tesla. Also byd is far ahead in battery technology read to sell both sodium batteries and solid state batteries. As the founder of lithium batteries has stated dr Goodenough current lithium batteries need further improvements
@omega2345 how do you measure that opinion on BYD? Do you have any data that helps you understand BYD?
NoTimeToCry profile picture
@EV_Tom Actually yes, BYD is considered to be the "world's leading manufacturer of new energy vehicles and power batteries" (Business Wire). There are plenty of articles on it's battery tech. NIO and Tesla buy batteries from BYD. BYD has the largest battery plant in the world. (en.byd.com/...)

They sell automobiles, buses, electric bicycles, trucks, forklifts, solar panels and rechargeable batteries. They sell full electric and hybrids. Their buses are used in many European countries.

To date Tesla sold 4,527,916 vehicles. BYD just celebrated their 5 millionth vehicle sold.

Their consumer portfolio is vast and probably larger than Tesla (actually much larger) and yet, their market cap is less than $100 billion compares to Tesla's almost $800 billion.

Makes sense? Not really.
@NoTimeToCry Tesla made five times the profit of BYD in 2022. People pay for profits not revenue in stock valuation, at least I do.

I am also fond of my country and am glad an American company is doing so well compared to BYD which has been selling cars for 28 years and still not as profitable.

The technology from Tesla is superior but I am not going to try to convince you.
For 10 some years Tesla always had nay sayers. Meanwhile, they have opened six giga factories with worldwide reach and going open their 7th and 8th in Mexico and India, BYD has yet to start going worldwide. Tesla will remain miles ahead in their manufacturing automation. 10 years of proven record while others are still initiating.
solucky profile picture

" Meanwhile, they have opened six giga factories with worldwide reach and going open their 7th and 8th in Mexico and India, BYD has yet to start going worldwide."

Still to slow for 20 - 30 million cars in 2030...

And i know only 3 factories that run decent Germany is still massive below 500K and Buffalo is an desaster.
@SurePi they also changed the entire automotive industry and now are taking on energy big time
T3SLA profile picture
@solucky You mean they didn't open 20 factories at $5 billion each before they actually had the sales to support them? Seems like smart business to me. Newer factories will have capacity for > 2 million cars per year, starting with Mexico. It's doubtful they will get to 20 million by 2030 but they will certainly knock Toyota off the #1 spot. By that time Tesla will have more net earnings per year than Apple, which means a share price of around $2000.
There are going to be alot of upset people in a few years when they start figuring out their battery is already only at 70% capacity.
@Chris K Aloha The tesla warranty: 8 years or 120,000 miles, whichever comes first, with minimum 70% retention of Battery capacity over the warranty period. www.tesla.com/...
solucky profile picture
@Chris K Aloha

" There are going to be alot of upset people in a few years when they start figuring out their battery is already only at 70% capacity. "

More time to make friends at the Supercharger...and more time to enjoy lunch / dinner at the MC restaurants :-)

To be fair 70-80% on a 100KWH pack are mostly enough,,,but news like the burning carrier in europe hurt EV.

CR Spencer profile picture
@Chris K Aloha There was a group of researchers who discovered that they could restore much of a lithium ions lost capacity by running it through a special charge/discharge regimen. Perhaps someday for a couple thousand dollars one could regain 45 - 60 miles of range. It's also likely that that might be done by just swapping out dead battery cells or weak modules. I think with robotics the cost of car disassembly and replacement will fall. It's also possible that trading in a used battery might put a fair dent in the cost of a new one.
Just read Tesla actually buys lots of batteries from byd. Tesla does not have the ability to make its own batteries while byd does. Investors daily has a good article about how byd is far far superior to tesla
@omega2345 BYD is a very labor intensive company. That’s why it’s margins are very small. Tesla buys batteries from multiple suppliers.

q1 Tesla manufacturing produced battery’s for 1000 cars a week. Q2 they increased battery capacity and scaled 80%. Tesla has infinite needs for batteries and buys as much as they can. In parallel they are building our scale on their battery manufacturing.

Tesla also broke ground on a lithium refinery in Texas.

Not sure where you get your data.
Buy byd much lower valuation and much better growth prospects. It is the clear technology leader with the most advanced batteries in the world

BYD sells 1.8 million cars earns 2.5 billion

Tesla sells 1.3 million cars earns 12.5 billion

BYD relies on manual labor. Tesla relies on automation and continuous improvement demonstrated in 20 plus quarters of data.
Steve Funk profile picture
“BYD relies on manual labor. Tesla relies on automation ”
I look at videos and see the same automation at BYD as at Tesla. One report said 1000 workers at 400 vehicle/day factory. That might be a bit higher than Tesla but labor rates are lower there. Dismiss BYD at your peril.
@Steve Funk I was going by the CEO of BYD's statement

"BYD CEO Wang Chuanfu says his company has a huge head count of 660k employees (FYI, Tesla has over 120k) & longs for full production automation at all BYD plants to reduce head count by 600k for cost savings.Jul 3, 2023"

How did i dismiss BYD? I have posted multiple times that BYD is better positioned than all the Japanese Automakers. They factually made 1/5 of tesla profit but sold 500K more cars than tesla.

This is not highlander, there will be more than one automaker.
T3SLA profile picture
Elon Musk just announced that Tesla is in negotiations with a major auto manufacturer to license FSD!!! My guess is it's Ford, since GM has their own project and Ford was the first to adopt the Tesla charging standard.
CEDUP profile picture
@T3SLA too bad there is no such thing as self driving cars, it's all a lie. tesla is nonsense.
T3SLA profile picture
@CEDUP Mmmm-hm...
SFO to Palace of Fine Arts with Zero Human Input on Tesla Full Self-Driving Beta 11.4.4
Truthteller profile picture
@T3SLA wow, you guys are easily impressed. It’s practically a straight shot either on the 101 or the 280 for 17 miles in 30 minutes . Whatever happened to coast to coast in America?

T3SLA profile picture
🇪🇺 Europe's auto production and vehicle registrations shrunk by 1.6 million vehicles compared to the time before the Corona pandemic.

Volkswagen, Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz alone produced a good half million fewer passenger cars on their home continent from January to May 2023 than in the same period in 2019, representing a decline of almost 20 percent, according to the information service "Marklines."

According to "Handelsblatt," VW and Audi manufacture 60 percent of their vehicles for the European market here in Germany. At Mercedes, the figure is 79 percent, and BMW even assembles its vehicles almost entirely in 🇩🇪 German factories.

Within the industry, rumors are circulating that the auto giants are artificially prolonging the reduction in orders by closing plants and canceling shifts because if they don't, there would be nothing left to do in the local plants. The switch to electric cars has not helped much so far

The 🇩🇪 German Auto roof is on 🔥 fire!
solucky profile picture

" The 🇩🇪 German Auto roof is on 🔥 fire! "

Synthetic created from european politicans !!!

10K fines for ICE + 20K subsidies for EV
CEDUP profile picture
@T3SLA BMW's largest factory is here in the U.S.A. stop with the nonsense. Benz and VW also run factories around the world... VW is building another factory in the U.S. for the Navistar brand Scout EV...it already runs the largest car factory in north America Puebla Mexico, been there since the 1960s..
T3SLA profile picture
@CEDUP Wow...1960's technology? Tesla has the largest factory in the world in Shanghai and will have an even bigger one in Germany once the expansion is complete. GigaMexico will be able to produce 2 million cars per year once it's fully built and expanded. BMW might survive, but VW is in serious trouble, along with most other legacy manufacturers. Tesla has like $23 billion in cash on hand, virtually no debt, a brand new factory starting construction in Mexico, expansion under way in Germany and they are in negotiations to license FSD and about to release Cybertruck that has 2 million pre-orders. VW's new factory is DOA. It's already obsolete if it's not building EV's that included 48v architecture. Tesla cut prices by 10% - 20% and they still cut almost 19% gross margins. They will cut another 25% off the cost of manufacturing with the Q3 improvements, which they discussed at their investor day presentation. Legacy auto will be getting crushed out of existence by the end of next year when GigaMex opens.
T3SLA profile picture
U.S. auto sales year to date

Tesla now sells more cars in the US than Volkswagen and Subaru…
solucky profile picture

" Tesla now sells more cars in the US than Volkswagen and Subaru "

Tesla sell more cars than Toyota here !!!!!

But Toyota dont offer many cars for 18K ( after subsidies )
Truthteller profile picture
@solucky Subaru doesn’t get tax incentives like tesla, but other than 4 states where teslas are popular, any state where people go camping sell a lot more subs
Suburu has elected not to sell any vehicles that are eligible for EV tax credits.

I know they are popular in some areas with some people. Not knocking them, but Tesla passed Suburu in US units sold during Q2 2023. Also exceeded VW.

Tesla Model Y is the #1 selling car or truck IN THE WORLD ytd 2023.
T3SLA profile picture
Automakers that have announced the switch to Tesla's NACS by 2025:

✅ Ford
✅ GM
- Chevy
- Cadillac
✅ Aptera
✅ Rivian
✅ Volvo
✅ Polestar
✅ Mercedes
✅ Nissan (latest)
❌ Volkswagen (in talks)
❌ Audi
❌ Lucid
❌ Fisker
❌ Porsche
❌ Toyota
❌ Honda
❌ Lexus
❌ Hyundai
CR Spencer profile picture
@T3SLA You left out Alef Aeronautics's with their flying car. They will use NACS to charge their vehicles. Maybe Tesla will have to put a supercharger on the top of the Empire State building.
T3SLA profile picture
Tesla Model Y is Europe’s best selling car through the first six months of the year
July 19, 2023 Darryn John Model Y
T3SLA profile picture
Tesla will likely extend its lead as the Global #1 BEV Company

(BYD deliveries should be taken with a grain of salt, as a large numbers of their BEVs were found parking in fields and not delivered to customers but counted as such).
Truthteller profile picture

Sharing fake news again. That’s the problem when you just grab a headline off of twitter. This should serve as a warning for those thinking tesla is gonna kill it in the robotaxi market

@Truthteller that’s what happens to those who have a biased view, such as with SA members whose user names advertise their favorite companies. They mindlessly believe anything that supports their world view and flat out reject anything that opposes it. Objectively it may be fake news, but they don’t recognize it as such. Thus it is not deliberate misinformation at least, we have to give them that.
T3SLA profile picture
@Truthteller I don't know any serious person who bases their bullish opinion on Robotaxis. The bull case is based on the fact that Tesla has the #1 selling car in the world, the #1 charging network in the world, the most advanced autopilot software, etc... and the fact that every legacy manufacturer has completely fumbled the ball on EV's. None of them are taking it seriously. They just talk about future plans that are conveniently beyond the current CEO's contract. At this point there is no way for legacy auto manufacturers to catch up. They will spend the next decade closing unprofitable factories and claiming that the $billions in write-downs are a "one time" thing...
T3SLA profile picture
First Cybertruck built at Giga Texas! 🤠
12:46 AM · Jul 15, 2023

This won't kill Ford & GM, but they will definitely feel it. The Cybertruck is a niche product, but when they put out a more mainstream truck at a later date, the Cybertruck will give it credibility.

@T3SLA "when they put out a more mainstream truck at a later date, the Cybertruck will give it credibility."

You mean that "they" (Tesla?) has announced a more mainstream truck? 1) Wouldn't that be a backward step from the initial CT announcement?
2) When did Tesla make this announcement?
@T3SLA "This won't kill Ford & GM, but they will definitely feel it. "

I'm not so sure about that. The 2009 real estate crisis killed GM and almost Ford, they had to be brought back to live with a government bail-out. Both can't make EVs people want or to make an EV with for a gross profit, they need both. Ford doesn't make ICE cars any more, just SUVs and trucks.
T3SLA profile picture
@GRComments Elon Musk made a statement a while back when asked about the futuristic design of the Cybertruck. He basically said he wanted to make something cool and they could always make a boring normal truck later. The Cybertruck will be a niche item but will be so shocking to see on the road that it will be a rolling billboard for Tesla...especially when people start using all those flat surfaces to create cool wraps and modify them with lights, camper shells, etc... It probably won't be a huge contributor to earnings directly, but it will drive sales on the rest of the fleet.
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