Tesla Investor Day Falls Flat

Summary
- Tesla announces new gigafactory will be located in Mexico.
- No $25,000 vehicle was shown off at this event.
- Shares lost more than 5% in after-hours trading.

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On Wednesday, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) held its highly anticipated Investor Day. Since the event was announced a few months ago, everyone has been waiting to hear about the company's next generation vehicle platform, as well as other items that will be key for shareholders going forward. Unfortunately, the event turned out to be more hype than anything else, and thus for TSLA stock, it was another "buy the rumor, sell the news" event.
Perhaps the biggest piece of news was that Tesla is indeed going to build another gigafactory, this time in Mexico. There have been rumors of this location for several weeks now, as local politicians have talked about it coming and various meetings with Tesla CEO Elon Musk have been reported. There was no timeline provided for this project, but this factory will be used for the next generation vehicle platform. It will be built just outside Monterrey in Nuevo León, with Tesla's official rendering seen below.

Tesla Gigafactory Mexico (Investor Day Presentation)
As was expected, Tesla's future plan is about the transitioning the world to sustainable energy. This came with a large math lesson, which can be seen here if you need to know the exact details. However, the keys involve powering the grid with renewable energy sources, increasing the number of electric vehicles in use, and reducing the extraction of minerals. On the EV side, Tesla believes its next generation vehicle can be produced for 50% less, which then will allow it to become more affordable. Part of the reduction in cost is making the production process much simpler. That reduces the time it will take to build the vehicle, which then can allow for higher production over time.
Investors and consumers had high hopes that Tesla would unveil its $25,000 vehicle at this week's event. This is a vehicle that Musk has teased for several years now, but it was not shown off here. Management said that this next generation platform will get a proper reveal in the future, but again, there was no timeline provided for when that will be. This more affordable vehicle is expected to be a key part of Tesla's battle in China against many local brands, so for now the company will be limited to the Model 3 and Y there.
In an article I had published recently, I discussed how previous statements around full self-driving ("FSD") capabilities and robo-taxis could lead to significant liabilities for Tesla down the road. There were hopes that more concrete information would be delivered Wednesday about the robo-taxi platform and service, but we didn't get a lot of details outside of how FSD and Autopilot have improved over the years. There also wasn't a major discussion about FSD Hardware version 4 or whether or not it is in cars yet, so perhaps an official announcement about that will come in the coming weeks or months.
Tesla did use the event to show off its latest Cybertruck prototype and focused on some of its key features. Management reiterated that production will start this year, which will be about three years late. However, there was some disappointment that no official timeline was given, and Tesla didn't update on the price of the vehicle. Mass production won't occur until 2024 at the earliest, so investors shouldn't be banking on a major contribution to overall results in the next couple of quarters.
One of the biggest disappointments for shareholders in the near term was the financial discussion. Tesla CFO Zach Kirkhorn discussed how the company's working capital needs bounce around throughout the quarter, and what the cost of this sustainable energy future will cost. As a result, there was no official announcement of a share repurchase plan that would at least offset some of the dilution investors are facing over time. This has been a key part of the bull case in recent months, with some major Tesla fans and investors pushing the company to put its large cash pile to use. For now, however, the plan is to build the business, and then return capital afterwards.
I have listened to many of Tesla's presentations and quarterly earnings calls, and this one was perhaps the most painful. The main presentation featured at least 10 key parts and was over two and a half hours long, and I counted at least 17 different executives that spoke. There was a lot of discussion about things that have already happened in Tesla, much of which I don't think needed to be regurgitated. For example, we didn't need to hear for a few minutes how a Tesla produces less emissions than a Toyota Corolla. The average investor doesn't need to know every single detail about how Tesla reacted to some event from several years ago or every last technical specification about certain vehicle components.
I mentioned that this event was another example of buy the rumor, sell the news. Tesla shares had more than doubled from their early 2023 lows, partially on the hopes for this week's event. Unfortunately, the lack of critical details on many fronts left investors with a sour taste. As the chart below shows, selling in the after-hours session started almost immediately once the event started, ended with a loss of 5.66% or nearly $11.50 a share.

Tesla March 1st Trading ((CNBC))
In the end, Tesla's Investor Day was more fluff than anything else. The company is certainly making progress on some of its goals, but investors wanted to hear more specific details about upcoming products, a potential buyback, etc. The presentation was just too long and wordy for the average investor, which may have fueled some of the selling in the after-hours session. Given the lack of key details, it wouldn't surprise me if there's more selling in the near term until Tesla opens things up a bit.
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Comments (1,742)

And now 360,000 vehicles recalled (legally it's a recall before a Tesla fanbois jumps in that the car doesn't have to actually go to a dealer) for the failings in it's current FSD software - two quote "exceed speed limits or travel through intersections in an unlawful or unpredictable manner increases the risk of a crash."

They showed FSD the drivers that actually stopped and the software was deployed briefly after the issue was raised.”I’m confused. I thought the older version was code and the newer one is trained by drivers? Which is it?Taoquitok
•
2 yr. ago
Interesting parts from this:Chronology :- On October 20, 2020, firmware release 2020.40.4.10 was released through an over-the-air (“OTA”) firmware update to vehicles in the limited early access FSD Beta population. The release introduced the “rolling stop” functionality.- On January 10, 2022, and again on January 19, 2022, Tesla met with NHTSA to discuss the functionality, including operating parameters.- On January 20, 2022, a recall determination was voluntarily made to disable the functionality, beginning withfirmware release 2021.44.30.15 and newer releases.Tesla will disable the “rolling stop” functionality on affected vehicles, starting with firmware release 2021.44.30.15. Firmware release 2021.44.30.15 is expected to begin deployment OTA to affected vehicles in early February 2022
Seems the "California roll" (is that what it's called? I'm a brit, so your whole approach to cross junctions is weird to us :P) will be removed for all in the beta.The logic check for when it's allowed seems pretty solid, so it's interesting this meeting and decision was done.The “rolling stop” functionality is designed to allow the vehicle to travelthrough an all-way-stop intersection without coming to a complete stop whenseveral operating conditions are first met. The required conditions include:The functionality must be enabled within the FSD Beta Profile settings; and
The vehicle must be approaching an all-way stop intersection; and
The vehicle must be traveling below 5.6mph; and
No relevant moving cars are detected near the intersection; and
No relevant pedestrians or bicyclists are detected near the intersection; and
There is sufficient visibility for the vehicle while approaching theintersection; and
All roads entering the intersection have a speed limit of 30 mph or less.If all the above conditions are met, only then will the vehicle travel through theall-way-stop intersection at a speed from 0.1 mph up to 5.6 mph without firstcoming to a complete stop. If any of the above conditions are not met, thefunctionality will not activate and the vehicle will come to a complete stop.

Also in europe BYD is still more or less outlawed without local production.BYDs cars are misspriced in europe.....but if we look to leasing deals it seems they still adjust the pricing
“In the first seven months of 2023, China sold 11.4 million cars at home and exported 2 million, but growth came almost entirely from abroad. Exports leapt 81% but domestic sales only crept 1.7% higher - despite the widespread price cuts.”



37K for an decent " local range " BEVStill 64 - 70 K total but economics would be4500 BEV cash subsidies
2500 road tax excemptions ( 10 years )
3K emission credits selling
14K tax free full solar electricity / 200kkm )
10K Solar cash subsidies
20K electrcity bill reduction ( 20 years )
------------------------------------------------54K in subsidies , incentives and mandates




“How much money is enough?”That is so much subjective and personal. But if I were 39 years old, I wouldn’t call it quits this soon.





BYD sells 1.8 million cars earns 2.5 billion Tesla sells 1.3 million cars earns 12.5 billion BYD relies on manual labor. Tesla relies on automation and continuous improvement demonstrated in 20 plus quarters of data.

“BYD relies on manual labor. Tesla relies on automation ”
I look at videos and see the same automation at BYD as at Tesla. One report said 1000 workers at 400 vehicle/day factory. That might be a bit higher than Tesla but labor rates are lower there. Dismiss BYD at your peril.


SFO to Palace of Fine Arts with Zero Human Input on Tesla Full Self-Driving Beta 11.4.4
https://youtu.be/DjkCNolJcag


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✅ GM
- Chevy
- GMC
- Cadillac
✅ Aptera
✅ Rivian
✅ Volvo
✅ Polestar
✅ Mercedes
✅ Nissan (latest)
❌ Volkswagen (in talks)
❌ KIA
❌ BMW
❌ Audi
❌ Lucid
❌ Fisker
❌ Porsche
❌ Toyota
❌ Honda
❌ Lexus
❌ Hyundai


July 19, 2023 Darryn John Model Y
driveteslacanada.ca/...

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12:46 AM · Jul 15, 2023
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23.9M
ViewsThis won't kill Ford & GM, but they will definitely feel it. The Cybertruck is a niche product, but when they put out a more mainstream truck at a later date, the Cybertruck will give it credibility.twitter.com/...
2) When did Tesla make this announcement?
